Is it bad there??

[kork13]

I think we could all use a chuckle... For those unfamiliar, xkcd is an online nerd comic, all drawn in stick figures, mostly talking math, science, physics, etc., and scientists' struggles to interact with society. Quite funny.

[disneysteve]

Thanks, kork. Love it!

[disneysteve]

Two local restaurants announced their permanent closures this weekend. One is a location of a chain that has been there since 2012. The other is an independent place that has been in business for 33 years. We weren't regulars at either though we've been to the independent place numerous times and to the other a couple of times. The chain one is at one of the local malls (one of the malls that has actually been thriving for years prior to COVID).

I really wonder what the restaurant scene is going to look like when this is all over.

[~bs]

Two local restaurants announced their permanent closures this weekend. One is a location of a chain that has been there since 2012. The other is an independent place that has been in business for 33 years. We weren't regulars at either though we've been to the independent place numerous times and to the other a couple of times. The chain one is at one of the local malls (one of the malls that has actually been thriving for years prior to COVID).

I really wonder what the restaurant scene is going to look like when this is all over.

Only the strong will survive similarly to what's going on in online retail space. Those quaint little establishments will eventually be replaced by a mickey ds, most likely.

[Joan.of.the.Arch]

~bs, do your 2000 employees have jobs that puts them in sustained, close contact with one or more people per day, or close contact with many people per day?

[~bs]

~bs, do your 2000 employees have jobs that puts them in sustained, close contact with one or more people per day, or close contact with many people per day?

Mostly it's the latter, with attempts to limit time of exposure to the extent possible. For back office support, we attempt to limit the former.

A lot of it is common sense measures as recommended by the CDC. Mandatory mask wearing for customers and our employees. We WILL call the police and have you escorted off private property if you refuse to wear one, 6' distancing or greater, if possible, cleaning and sanitizing frequently, mandatory daily temperature checks, mandatory quarantine after returning from travel, mandatory quarantine and/or testing if in contact with a covid positive individual, mandatory shutdown and deep cleaning if an employee tests positive, etc. Because contact tracing and the government in my state is an utter failure (we have 15 for a 1.4million population), we do our own type of contact tracing, informing anyone we know that possibly was in contact with the positive case employee.

These things are common sense and do help prevent spread of the virus.

[ua_guy]

I really wonder what the restaurant scene is going to look like when this is all over.

I'm thinking there will be great opportunity to start new restaurants. Used restaurant equipment and spaces for lease should be available for dirt-cheap prices. I think a lot of the public is still staying away from restaurants, or, if they go, there's still a worrisome atmosphere--it's just not the same. I think demand will be huge once the virus is under control. But, you're right...I think a lot of the smaller establishments lose their shorts in the meantime.

[disneysteve]

I'm thinking there will be great opportunity to start new restaurants. Used restaurant equipment and spaces for lease should be available for dirt-cheap prices. I think a lot of the public is still staying away from restaurants, or, if they go, there's still a worrisome atmosphere--it's just not the same. I think demand will be huge once the virus is under control. But, you're right...I think a lot of the smaller establishments lose their shorts in the meantime.

Yeah, I think we'll see a period of a lot of closures, but then in a year or so, start seeing a bunch of new places start to crop up.

Restaurants are open here for outdoor dining. We have been out a few times, but it's still been too hot most of the time. I'm hoping the weather starts getting a little more moderate so that eating out is more tolerable. Especially at lunch time, it's been impossible and not a whole lot better at dinner unless you go fairly late. We've mainly been sticking to takeout.

[james.hendrickson]

This isn't necessarily related, but James Altcucher has a sobering take on the long term economic impact of the Covid crisis on Metro New York City.

Here are the first few paragraphs of the piece:

I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories.

Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. I could start any type of business. I could meet people. I had family, friends, opportunities. No matter what happened to me, NYC was a net I could fall back on and bounce back up.

Now it’s completely dead. “But NYC always always bounces back.” No. Not this time. “But NYC is the center of the financial universe. Opportunities will flourish here again.” Not this time.

“NYC has experienced worse.” No, it hasn’t.

A Facebook group [Into The Unknown] formed a few weeks ago that was for people who were planning a move and wanted others to talk to and ask advice from. Within two or three days it had about 10,000 members.

Every day I see more and more posts: “I’ve been in NYC forever but I guess this time I have to say goodbye.” I’ve been screenshotting them for my scrapbook.

The rest of the article is here.

[kork13]

This isn't necessarily related, but James Altcucher has a sobering take on the long term economic impact of the Covid crisis on Metro New York City.

I think early on in this crisis, we had some discussion here about the likelihood of it driving a dispersal away from densely populated major urban areas, as well as the likelihood of increased teleworking allowing people to maintain their same jobs while living in a lower-density area. And NYC (and this article) is a perfect example of that. It's readily apparent that heavily populated areas were/are hit the hardest by COVID, while small towns (like where I'm currently living), its impacts are surprisingly minor. It's not hard to foresee a flight from major metro areas becoming a trend, even moreso as the pandemic continues month after month.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Governor Andrew Cuomo last week on the news was begging NYC residents to come back and Cuomo offered to treat them to dinner. On a personal note I would leave Los Angeles in a heat beat if I could. I would move to Texas or Florida. Los Angeles is following the likes of Chicago, Seattle, NYC, and Portland.

[disneysteve]

I think early on in this crisis, we had some discussion here about the likelihood of it driving a dispersal away from densely populated major urban areas, as well as the likelihood of increased teleworking allowing people to maintain their same jobs while living in a lower-density area. And NYC (and this article) is a perfect example of that. It's readily apparent that heavily populated areas were/are hit the hardest by COVID, while small towns (like where I'm currently living), its impacts are surprisingly minor. It's not hard to foresee a flight from major metro areas becoming a trend, even moreso as the pandemic continues month after month.

I don't know. I know a bunch of people who live in NYC. They love it. They love the energy and excitement and walkability and public transportation and dining and entertainment and culture. They could live anywhere but choose to live there.

I'm sure some people will leave but I don't see the appeal of NYC going away for most. If you are a city person, you're a city person. Nothing changes that.

Of course, I also know plenty of folks who are definitely not city people. One friend we grew up with was born and raised in Philadelphia but as soon as she finished college, she moved to a small town in Delaware and has been there ever since and couldn't be happier. She likes the slower pace and laid back lifestyle and garden and space for the dog to run around. You couldn't pay her enough to get her to move back to the city even though that's where she spent the first 21 years of her life.

[ua_guy]

I think early on in this crisis, we had some discussion here about the likelihood of it driving a dispersal away from densely populated major urban areas, as well as the likelihood of increased teleworking allowing people to maintain their same jobs while living in a lower-density area. And NYC (and this article) is a perfect example of that. It's readily apparent that heavily populated areas were/are hit the hardest by COVID, while small towns (like where I'm currently living), its impacts are surprisingly minor. It's not hard to foresee a flight from major metro areas becoming a trend, even moreso as the pandemic continues month after month.

I'm trying to buy and sell right now, mostly sell. Our realtor says yes, absolutely, there are a lot of people in the market who are a) getting out of the city - I am near Minneapolis, and the "riots" spooked a lot of the city people who live close-in. b) A lot of people want more square footage, larger yards, etc, to survive the upcoming year, working from home and having to homeschool, so they are reaching farther into the suburbs where that's possible. I spent almost a month in Eastern WA / Cascades recently, a small town which is too far to be a suburb of Seattle, but is a popular recreation/vacation home community. The area is seeing explosive growth as many people are now free to not commute, yet, they still want to have a handle on the Seattle area, about 90 miles away. The market is moving at warp speed, 30 day inventory, house goes up, it's got multiple offers within 3 days.

Steve is right about city people - there are people who prefer it and will never give it up and all the great things that go with it. But there is a contingent of people who are making a leap.

[Fishindude77]

I'm trying to buy and sell right now, mostly sell. Our realtor says yes, absolutely, there are a lot of people in the market who are a) getting out of the city - I am near Minneapolis, and the "riots" spooked a lot of the city people who live close-in. b) A lot of people want more square footage, larger yards, etc, to survive the upcoming year, working from home and having to homeschool, so they are reaching farther into the suburbs where that's possible. I spent almost a month in Eastern WA / Cascades recently, a small town which is too far to be a suburb of Seattle, but is a popular recreation/vacation home community. The area is seeing explosive growth as many people are now free to not commute, yet, they still want to have a handle on the Seattle area, about 90 miles away. The market is moving at warp speed, 30 day inventory, house goes up, it's got multiple offers within 3 days.

Steve is right about city people - there are people who prefer it and will never give it up and all the great things that go with it. But there is a contingent of people who are making a leap.

My niece and her hubby were pretty close to that mess in Minneapolis.
They are picking up and moving the heck out of there.

[james.hendrickson]

I'm sure some people will leave but I don't see the appeal of NYC going away for most. If you are a city person, you're a city person. Nothing changes that.

.

According to Altucher, what changes that is greatly improved internet infrastructure - bandwidth is something like x10 better now. So you can effectively work from anywhere in the globe - negating the communication advantages of living in an urban area.