Is it bad there??

[disneysteve]

Theme park tickets are up to $600? holy cow.

A 7-day park hopper pass to Walt Disney World over Thanksgiving is $681.60.

[Petunia 100]

A 7-day park hopper pass to Walt Disney World over Thanksgiving is $681.60.

I could almost go on another cruise for that.

[disneysteve]

Well forget about that. Now it's looking like that brief drop was just an inflection point on the curve. From Monday to Tuesday we saw the largest increase of cases yet with 39 new cases in the hospital. From Tuesday to Wednesday, another 13. Also 29 new inpatients being ruled out for COVID between the 2 days. The COVID cases now make up 37.6% of the hospital census.

Up another 18 cases since yesterday. Now at 257 inpatients and steadily climbing. The anticipated peak is anticipated to hit between 4/25 and 4/29 with approximately 575 total COVID cases. It's nuts to think that there will be that many patients there for the same thing. And if about 20% of them need ventilation, that's almost 120 on ventilators. We have about 135 at least and the true number when you count machines in the OR and some other places, it's more like 150 so there isn't an anticipated shortage but it will certainly strain the supply.

One problem they are anticipating is a shortage of rehab beds. A number of short term rehabs have closed to new patients in part because they lack isolation beds. So they can't bring in recovering COVID patients because they'd infect everyone else. They're talking about where they can create their own rehab beds - the sleep center, the large conference rooms, and possibly reopening a previously closed hospital.

[disneysteve]

Up another 18 cases since yesterday. Now at 257 inpatients and steadily climbing.

Inpatient cases jumped nearly 11% today with 28 new admissions bringing us to 285. That surge looks like it's happening pretty much as predicted.

STAY HOME FOLKS!

[james.hendrickson]

Inpatient cases jumped nearly 11% today with 28 new admissions bringing us to 285. That surge looks like it's happening pretty much as predicted.

STAY HOME FOLKS!

Oh geeze. Just when I was thinking about going back to the office.

[disneysteve]

Oh geeze. Just when I was thinking about going back to the office.

Well it certainly depends on what the situation is where you live. Our area hasn't peaked yet. The peak here is expected to be around April 25. Some areas have already experienced their peak.

[disneysteve]

Hopefully this is good news. Our hospital caseload has leveled off. The past 4 days it was 285-282-285-285. That doesn't mean there have been no new patients but that the new patients were offset by those who were discharged (or died). It's the only stretch since this began when total inpatient cases hasn't increased for more than 2 days in a row. They are still saying they expect the peak to be later this week or early next week at the latest.

Hopefully the peak isn't much above the current numbers. All of us at urgent care are hoping we don't get called in to do hospital work because almost none of us are prepared or trained for that.

[~bs]

We reported 0 cases today. Last time that happened was when the virus thing was kicking off early to mid march. Our case reports straight up looks like a bell shaped curve. It's probably the reason why hundreds of tourists keep trying to come here despite the 2 week quarantine order for any passengers and stay at home regulation

[mumof2]

we have had another day in our state of no new cases, we have had 435 cases, only 2 left in icu and only 4 deaths...not bad but we do only have 1.7 million people living in our state...but I think we are doing well

[disneysteve]

Great to hear cases leveling off in other places.

[Like2Plan]

You are probably looking at the average number for the whole USA. The New York area (where most of the current cases are) is probably close to the top of the curve(--behavior dependent, of course). There are other places are past peak according to the IHME model.

My state (VA) is not supposed to reach peak until Apr 20th according to the IHME https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...erica/virginia
Texas is Apr 22th https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...-america/texas

But, of course this is one model. (The Chime model has later dates.)


In my own county, we are now at 690 cases and 16 deaths (up from 387 confirmed cases and 6 deaths) from 5 days ago. My county leads the number of cases in our state. We are part of the greater Washington DC area-- Dr. Birx was saying in the press conference that they are worried about Baltimore/Washington DC area becoming a hot spot.

My county is at 1207 cases and 21 deaths. Unfortunately, the number of new cases have almost doubled in 5 days. I don't know what we are doing wrong. Schools were closed on the 16th of March. Teleworking started on the 16th of March (for those who could). Stores have been closed. The stay at home order was put in place on 30 March. Parks are closed.

My county in Northern VA is now at 2123 cases and 66 deaths. The number of new cases is slowing down a little bit (it took us 6 days to get from1207 to 2123). The state of VA is not that far behind Washington state (whatever you guys are doing--it seems to be working).

[kork13]

Great to hear cases leveling off in other places.

Here in Alaska, the number of cases started consistently decreasing over the last 5-6 days. But we've had a fairly low number of cases anyway (topped out around ~160 cases state-wide, I think).

[LivingAlmostLarge]

It depends really on where you live. States with hotspots only have "hotspots" in certain areas. Parts of the states are fine and were always fine and probably could have been open. The problem is if you are in a hotspot and it gets opened back up, and cases start to rise then you are in trouble. Maybe in one half of the state hospitals are fine 4 hours away. But in the other half of the state that's not the case and truly a problem.

[~bs]

We reported 0 cases today. Last time that happened was when the virus thing was kicking off early to mid march. Our case reports straight up looks like a bell shaped curve. It's probably the reason why hundreds of tourists keep trying to come here despite the 2 week quarantine order for any passengers and stay at home regulation

Despite having zero cases for the past few days, and low cases even before that, they extended the stay at home order until the end of May. If they want people to absolutely revolt against the government restrictions, this is a good way to accomplish it.

[kork13]

This article hopefully shouldn't be behind the paywall... https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...oung-patients/

If this possible correlation with stroke in young, asymptomatic COVID patients proves authentic, that could make all of this much more scary. Basically, asymptomatic folks don't have problems with the respiratory complications, but a small percentage seem to be throwing clots leading to stroke. Hopefully the total evidence doesn't bear that out....