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    #76
    Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post

    I still think that other parts of the country can open up. The people in the less dense middle of the country should work and live. They probably won't visit the coasts anyway. I wouldn't if I were them. It'll be seen as disease infested areas.
    I've thought that, too (with testing and contact tracing). But, then you read stories like this one: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/14/83447...stricken-plant


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      #77
      Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

      Thanks.

      Here in New Jersey, we now have 68,824 confirmed cases and 2,805 attributed deaths. There have been 41 deaths just in my county alone, and we're not one of the hottest spots.

      The more involved I get in some of this, the more convinced I am that the case number is grossly underestimated. We at urgent care are responsible for calling patients to give results of their COVID tests done at our two drive through testing sites. I've called many people who tested negative but had symptoms that were textbook cases. One former coworker who now works at the hospital has been sick with very typical COVID symptoms but tested negative. His condition continues to worsen, however, and I'm 99% sure he has COVID despite the negative test.

      This was discussed at a work conference tonight and they said that testing too early in the course of disease could result in a negative result even in an infected patient. So folks who acted early and got tested on day 2 or 3 of illness may falsely test negative. Great! Makes it even harder to do contact tracing and mitigation.
      This is real concerning. I wonder if they would show positive with the new antibody test that is supposed to show if someone had the disease?
      Also, I wonder if the new 15 minute test is more or less sensitive?

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        #78
        I think we should just treat the symptoms and check for viral pneumonia (which causes most of the deaths) for those with symptoms even if the test is negative?

        Comment


          #79
          It is a hard call as in my state we see pockets... some areas with nothing and some with hot spots that have now cooled off. Many areas are very angry they lost so much business based on a problem on the other side of state.

          I think too many items are still unknown. Just as some had mild or no symptoms but had this virus, perhaps the incubation time is different for people as well. Maybe for some two weeks is enough time for others longer making them more contagious. The idea of those without symptoms makes more sense then washing my groceries when i get home. We have created a panic that some will simply worry forever that every person and item is contaminated from now on.
          I read a study out of china that seems to show a correlation between how people with different blood types respond to virus. Evidently blood type A has worse outcome then type O. in this study.

          Any testing that was rushed and even the first wave of tests seem to have a disappointing false result %. Some seem to be still not tested until admission into a hospital. Then I have seen a person on TV taking the test to show how easy it is ...even if their exposure was not warranted. I am also curious why more effort on the antibody tests were not sooner. There are many ppl who feel thy may have had something but recovered far before this ever changing drama shut down the economy.

          I honestly think that many people are not treated or helped until their conditions are bad. Like any illness treating sooner seem to be better outcomes. When i was ill i read about autopsy situation in china talking about thick sticky clogged lungs even though i did not feel chest congestion I took Mucenix and began to feel better. There simply was no real advice for those treating mild symptoms at home. i wonder if those taking suppressants instead of expectorants became worse.
          I have been trying to read any first hand accounts stories from those whom lost someone and those who were hospitalized and recovered. So Many seem to have a common thread of either waiting until it was bad to seek help or being told by medical professionals to go home and see if it gets better etc.
          I also saw a doctor making a video on internet saying this looks more like high altitude sickness then pneumonia. The treatment of lungs evidently is different ... this guy cannot be the only one to make this correlation.
          IMO Too many think wait and see for the answers instead of taking a proactive approach to any of this. I doubt we will have answers when so many are dismissing items before they are even looked at.

          Comment


            #80
            Originally posted by Smallsteps View Post
            I honestly think that many people are not treated or helped until their conditions are bad.
            That's exactly right. There is no specific treatment for COVID anyway and mild to moderate cases really don't require any special attention. Lots of fluids, Tylenol, some cough medicine and self isolation is really all you need.

            Due to the extremely limited availability of testing supplies, especially early on, we've only been testing those who were sicker and higher risk anyway, so a lot of those mild cases were never officially diagnosed.

            There's a lot of controversy about the antibody tests. The FDA waived the usual requirements to prove they work so the value of some of the tests that are out there is questionable. And we still don't know what the results even mean. Does having antibodies mean you have recovered? Does it mean you're immune? We just don't know.
            Steve

            * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
            * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
            * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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              #81
              Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
              Cases in our hospital system decreased today for the first time since the epidemic began.
              Friday: 169
              Saturday: 181
              Sunday: 190
              Monday: 187

              It's not much but it's the first time the number has gone down day to day at all. Let's hope that's the beginning of a trend.
              Well forget about that. Now it's looking like that brief drop was just an inflection point on the curve. From Monday to Tuesday we saw the largest increase of cases yet with 39 new cases in the hospital. From Tuesday to Wednesday, another 13. Also 29 new inpatients being ruled out for COVID between the 2 days. The COVID cases now make up 37.6% of the hospital census.
              Steve

              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

              Comment


                #82
                Originally posted by Like2Plan View Post

                My county is at 1207 cases and 21 deaths. Unfortunately, the number of new cases have almost doubled in 5 days. I don't know what we are doing wrong. Schools were closed on the 16th of March. Teleworking started on the 16th of March (for those who could). Stores have been closed. The stay at home order was put in place on 30 March. Parks are closed.
                it could be that many of them have been exposed before then and it can take up to 3 weeks before symptoms show...so although measures are in place it doesn't mean it didn't spread before that and is now just showing up in everyone...at least that is my guess...it happened here when so many got off the cruise ships nothing then 2-3 weeks later a big surge on people having it

                Comment


                  #83
                  Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                  That's exactly right. There is no specific treatment for COVID anyway and mild to moderate cases really don't require any special attention. Lots of fluids, Tylenol, some cough medicine and self isolation is really all you need.

                  Due to the extremely limited availability of testing supplies, especially early on, we've only been testing those who were sicker and higher risk anyway, so a lot of those mild cases were never officially diagnosed.

                  There's a lot of controversy about the antibody tests. The FDA waived the usual requirements to prove they work so the value of some of the tests that are out there is questionable. And we still don't know what the results even mean. Does having antibodies mean you have recovered? Does it mean you're immune? We just don't know.

                  It is all so ever changing and it is hard to tell what is real or BS.

                  I saw ADS for "if you have had it and we can test for antibodies then we want your plasma to help those sick"...... so what tests are they using, if there is not an accurate version of test?
                  This ad showed up 2 weeks ago for local medical school. I also saw there is like 17 versions of antibody tests being tested for accuracy at the FDA.

                  Other then actually trying to help others recover what incentive is there for people to get tested. Unless they decide you must prove antibodies to work or function as normal.
                  Kind of a guilty until proven innocent theory.

                  I mean if we actually found out for sure how many people had with minor or no symptoms. The false death rate they have added up using presumptive positives will shrink as a percentage. this would also shrink the fear factor the media is spreading.
                  Hard to sell keeping everything closed if their data is showing a smaller % of death and a smaller possible patient pool.

                  Other countries are evidently getting antibody results showing a far greater amount of people that had no / few issues and are over it, then they suspected.
                  What test are they using and can we replicate it?

                  if these tests were a money maker we would be flooded with them I would imagine.
                  If we found many had it and the risk is to a much smaller pool what would they do to keep those in a state of panic?

                  I just read a local testing (drive up type) is closing after 2 weeks. why.?
                  Is the area clear no .... Because they used up the federal money and county and state did not want to pick up the tab but they say " we will do everything for public health" evidently not if they have to write the check for it......

                  Comment


                    #84
                    Originally posted by mumof2 View Post

                    it could be that many of them have been exposed before then and it can take up to 3 weeks before symptoms show...so although measures are in place it doesn't mean it didn't spread before that and is now just showing up in everyone...at least that is my guess...it happened here when so many got off the cruise ships nothing then 2-3 weeks later a big surge on people having it

                    My Mom came up with another idea that I hadn't thought about. She asked about essential workers going into Washington DC (which made a lot of sense). I have been retired for almost 9 years, but if I had still been working I would have been required to go to work (no telecommuting option for my job).

                    Another disturbing article I saw this morning about elder care facilities in my county:
                    "Officials at Sunrise Living in McLean announced several deaths related to COVID-19 on Tuesday, amid outbreaks at longterm care facilities across Fairfax County and the Commonwealth."

                    "The announcement comes as the Virginia Department of Health reports 16 outbreaks at elder care facilities in Fairfax County and outbreaks at 56 facilities in the state, amounting to 638 cases and 36 deaths."
                    https://www.fox5dc.com/news/fairfax-...-nursing-homes

                    This one was pretty uncomfortable because there is a Senior Living home from the same franchise nearby and while DH and I don't need those type of care facilities at this point in our lives, who's to say down the line?

                    The county tally today has about half of the cases-617 in age group 18-49. There are 369 cases in age group 50-64, 280 cases in age group 65 and older and 23 cases in age group 0-17. The only deaths are in the 50-64 and 65 and older group.

                    Comment


                      #85
                      Originally posted by Smallsteps View Post
                      Other then actually trying to help others recover what incentive is there for people to get tested.
                      I think the main reason is to find out if you're contagious so that you don't infect your family and others.

                      I just read a local testing (drive up type) is closing after 2 weeks. why.?
                      The Federal sites were intended to be temporary, up and running quickly only until the states and counties had time to get their own sites going. Around here, there are now multiple private and public testing sites so the FEMA site is no longer needed.
                      Steve

                      * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                      * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                      * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                      Comment


                        #86
                        Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
                        I think the main reason is to find out if you're contagious so that you don't infect your family and others.
                        If you have not known so far and you had contact with lets say you direct family the horse has left the barn on not infecting them.



                        The Federal sites were intended to be temporary, up and running quickly only until the states and counties had time to get their own sites going. Around here, there are now multiple private and public testing sites so the FEMA site is no longer needed.
                        I understand fema was temporary, I was quoting the article saying the specific state simply chose not to foot the bill.
                        Last edited by disneysteve; 04-16-2020, 09:51 AM. Reason: fixed quotations

                        Comment


                          #87
                          Originally posted by Smallsteps View Post
                          If you have not known so far and you had contact with lets say you direct family the horse has left the barn on not infecting them.
                          True for your direct household contacts, but what about returning to work and other activities? That's a big question now as we start to talk about how and when to reopen things. When is it safe for me to see my mother? What about the people who tested positive for COVID? If they are all better now, what about their family members? How long do they need to remain quarantined? Those are the sorts of questions we're dealing with now when we call people with their test results. Right now, we simply don't know the answers so the whole "when to reopen" conversation is total speculation at this point.

                          I saw that one airline is experimenting with doing a rapid test on every passenger before boarding flights. Is that where this is going? That might be feasible when 100 people are getting on a plane but how about when 30,000 people are entering a theme park or 60,000 are entering a stadium for a football game?
                          Steve

                          * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                          * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                          * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                          Comment


                            #88
                            Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
                            I saw that one airline is experimenting with doing a rapid test on every passenger before boarding flights. Is that where this is going? That might be feasible when 100 people are getting on a plane but how about when 30,000 people are entering a theme park or 60,000 are entering a stadium for a football game?
                            Hey, great idea! So what's the response as somebody's boarding a plane or entering a theme park & tests positive?
                            giphy.gif
                            "Praestantia per minutus" ... "Acta non verba"

                            Comment


                              #89
                              Originally posted by kork13 View Post
                              Hey, great idea! So what's the response as somebody's boarding a plane or entering a theme park & tests positive?
                              giphy.gif
                              Exactly. So I've bought a $250 plane ticket or a $600 theme park ticket. When I show up, I fail a rapid COVID test. Then what? I've traveled all the way to Orlando as part of a $4,000 vacation package and now they won't let me in. Can you imagine the rioting then?
                              Steve

                              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                              Comment


                                #90
                                Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                                Exactly. So I've bought a $250 plane ticket or a $600 theme park ticket. When I show up, I fail a rapid COVID test. Then what? I've traveled all the way to Orlando as part of a $4,000 vacation package and now they won't let me in. Can you imagine the rioting then?
                                On our cruise which sailed last March 11, they took temperatures of every potential passenger. If your temp was not normal, you would not be allowed to board, but with a full refund. I guess you would still be out the air, if applicable.

                                Theme park tickets are up to $600? holy cow.

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