Post Your Wins

[kork13]

A month or so back, I put in a few sell limit orders to clean up my portfolio a bit (in my boredom/excitement during/after the COVID crash, I bought a variety of non-core ETFs/stocks). When I sell, since it's not a rush, I typically set the limit price to something a bit high (say, 5-10% above then-current prices) then just let it sit until expiration or execution.

With the recent run-up of the markets, I woke up this morning to a notification of one of them actually executing! It's always a happy little surprise when that happens. Depending on the lot, ends up being a 30-35% gain over the last 2-2.5 years. Nothing incredibly spectacular (roughly comparable to the S&P500), but I'll take the win!

Of course, I also have some losses from the same period (bad bets... oops) that I'm overdue to offload... So I can offset the gains & probably make it roughly net neutral for taxes.

[QuarterMillionMan]

I'm waiting for someone to tell disneysteve how unethical that is for not returning the money, lol. About 10 years ago I started a thread here where I placed an order for (2) pipe clamps for $1.99 each but instead received (2) Grundfos circulating water pumps such as these;
Grundfos 99412493 UP10-16 Hot Water Recirculating | Build.com

I waited to see if the seller wanted the pumps returned but never heard back so I ended up selling the pumps on eBay for about half what it was worth. The thread I started was something like, "What would you do if you ordered (2) pipe clamps but received (2) water pumps?" Some people said it was unethical to keep it, while others said it was the seller's fault and I should not have to go out of my way to return it but I would have returned it if the seller asked for it back. As for disneysteve's situation I probably would not go out of my way and tell Amazon that I did in fact receive the order.

[disneysteve]

This one is a little ethically fuzzy but we didn't do it so I'll count it as a win.

My daughter ordered some socks from Amazon a couple of weeks ago. Order was about $27. Tracking showed when they would arrive and they did arrive in that window, but apparently the delivery person never scanned them as being delivered. Amazon's system still showed them in transit. After a couple of days, I actually joked that we could report them missing and get a refund, but we didn't actually do that.

Fast forward to yesterday when I got an email from Amazon saying they had issued a refund for the order since it never got delivered. I suppose I could reach out to them and tell them that we actually got them, but I'm not wasting my time doing that. They'd probably think I was a weirdo anyway if I contacted them to say, "Please don't give me a refund".

[disneysteve]

Good explanation. Here's another scenario in video poker. There are 52 cards in a deck, no jokers. On the initial deal I get 4 cards to a royal flush so I discard the rubbish card. There are 47 cards remaining in the deck. I picture in my minds 47 cards faced down and trying to pick the 1 out 47 remaining cards to complete the royal flush. Only one time out of many times did I get lucky and got the needed card on 4 cards to a royal flush. I've gotten lucky holding only 2, 3, or even only holding 1 card once and completing the royal flush.

Yes, 1 in 47 isn't great odds, but you will hit it now and then if you play enough.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Good explanation. Here's another scenario in video poker. There are 52 cards in a deck, no jokers. On the initial deal I get 4 cards to a royal flush so I discard the rubbish card. There are 47 cards remaining in the deck. I picture in my minds 47 cards faced down and trying to pick the 1 out 47 remaining cards to complete the royal flush. Only one time out of many times did I get lucky and got the needed card on 4 cards to a royal flush. I've gotten lucky holding only 2, 3, or even only holding 1 card once and completing the royal flush.

[disneysteve]

In my case the aces might come 1/5761 hands. So let's say I can play 10 hands a minutes, or 600 hands an hour. In about 10 hours of playing I might to get an aces 4 four of a kind. These are not absolute and I could be very unlucky and go 20,000 hands without getting it or I might get very lucky and get it only after playing 200 hands. Any math geeks here find anything to the contrary with my explanation or might have a different interpretation?

What is important to remember is that at the casino, every spin or every hand is an independent event. The outcome of your 2nd spin or your 20th spin or your 200th spin is unaffected by the outcome of the spins that came before it. People fall into the common misconception that a certain outcome is "due" because it hasn't occurred for a while but that's not how it works. If you play 20,000 hands and don't get 4 aces, the odds of getting it on spin 20,001 are exactly the same as they were on spin 1. The fact that it hasn't happened all that time doesn't make it any more likely to occur now.

[QuarterMillionMan]

In my case the aces might come 1/5761 hands. So let's say I can play 10 hands a minutes, or 600 hands an hour. In about 10 hours of playing I might to get an aces 4 four of a kind. These are not absolute and I could be very unlucky and go 20,000 hands without getting it or I might get very lucky and get it only after playing 200 hands. Any math geeks here find anything to the contrary with my explanation or might have a different interpretation?

[disneysteve]

I know the odds for 3 card poker suck but it’s a fun game. That’s why I really enjoy playing it online where I can bet as little as 10¢. In a physical casino it’s usually a $10 minimum at best. Since there are actually 4 bets per hand that means $40 a shot. Too rich for me at this point. Online I can play for $1. I’m good with that.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Your scenario.........


My scenario............

[disneysteve]

I didn’t take a screenshot but I was playing 3 card poker online today with a 25¢ bet. I hit the 6 card bonus with a straight flush to win $50.

[QuarterMillionMan]

[QuarterMillionMan]

The guy was playing an Ultimate X video poker machine .10 cents denomination ten play. He was dealt aces with a kicker on Double Double Bonus Poker and each line had either a 2x or 3x multiplier. Majority of the lines were 2x ($400) but I think two lines were 3x ($600), totaling $4400.

[disneysteve]

Tonight at the casino a guy sitting next to me hit a $4400 jackpot. He smartly requested the casino withhold $1000 for federal taxes and $500 for California taxes. He told me that if he didn't do that he would end up possibly putting all of it back in time so he wants to make sure the taxes are paid first. I commended his decision to do so.

Smart move. That’s a guy who understands how things work.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Tonight at the casino a guy sitting next to me hit a $4400 jackpot. He smartly requested the casino withhold $1000 for federal taxes and $500 for California taxes. He told me that if he didn't do that he would end up possibly putting all of it back in time so he wants to make sure the taxes are paid first. I commended his decision to do so.

[QuarterMillionMan]

And I just noticed that I posted this screen shot recently, so I'll be paying taxes on $9000 in interest as well, yikes.