Is it bad there??

[disneysteve]

Interesting to hear that... a variety of articles I'm seeing (which the markets have reacted to as well) are saying that hospitalization rates are looking like they're trending down in NY/NJ.

I just got today's report.

COVID cases in our hospitals are up 10% from yesterday, from 125 to 138.

[TexasHusker]

I just got today's report.

COVID cases in our hospitals are up 10% from yesterday, from 125 to 138.

how many hospitals

[disneysteve]

how many hospitals

Five total

[TexasHusker]

Five total

so not quite 40 per hospital. that's actually significantly less than I was thinking it might be. To hear COVID News Network tell it, there are mass warehouses of dying people laying on cots everywhere up there.

[disneysteve]

so not quite 40 per hospital. that's actually significantly less than I was thinking it might be. To hear COVID News Network tell it, there are mass warehouses of dying people laying on cots everywhere up there.

There are in NYC. I’m 100 miles from there.

i believe it’s happening in New Orleans too on a smaller scale.

[TexasHusker]

Yes but the major news are doing a good bit of sensationalizing. NYC metro population is above 20 million. They have 75K cases of COVID. That's 1/3 of 1 percent of the population. If you watch CNN, most of NYC has it and will soon die.

I also understand that the number of ICU beds/vents actually needed are a fairly small percentage of reality.

Yellow journalism isn't helping anyone. We need to calm down a little and soon get back to living our lives. This virus isn't going anywhere, anytime soon.

[disneysteve]

so not quite 40 per hospital. that's actually significantly less than I was thinking it might be. To hear COVID News Network tell it, there are mass warehouses of dying people laying on cots everywhere up there.

To date, New Jersey has 44,416 confirmed cases and 1,232 deaths.

Current projections are for hospitalizations to peak between April 10 and April 28 so we're just about to enter the worst of it and be there for the next 2-3 weeks.

[TexasHusker]

To date, New Jersey has 44,416 confirmed cases and 1,232 deaths.

Current projections are for hospitalizations to peak between April 10 and April 28 so we're just about to enter the worst of it and be there for the next 2-3 weeks.

That's a lot of lives lost to be certain, but it isn't the apocalypse. It's a virus that is killing a higher percentage of those infected than most viruses. At some point, we will have to move on and live life.

[disneysteve]

I also understand that the number of ICU beds/vents actually needed are a fairly small percentage of reality.

I'm not sure what you mean there. Do you think they're overstating the need?

My nearest hospital has 18 ICU beds. As of today, all 18 are occupied with COVID patients and all 18 are on ventilators. I don't know if any additional beds have been converted to ICU use or if there are any more ventilator patients but it's highly unusual to have every ICU bed on a vent.

I'll be working at one of the other hospitals tomorrow so I'll get a firsthand look at how things are there.

I've been a doctor for 30 years. I've never seen anything like this before. I don't really care what you think about CNN or any other media outlet. I can tell you from the front lines that this is crazy bad. The fact that my peers and I are being "trained" (and I use that term loosely) to be able to work in the hospital this month is terrifying to all of us. A couple of members of our team just finished residency last year so it's not that long since they were in the hospital, but for others it's been 5 or 10 or 20+ years. Last time I treated an inpatient was in January 2000. I will freely admit I've lost sleep the past few days knowing that I'll be doing it tomorrow for the first time since then.

[disneysteve]

That's a lot of lives lost to be certain, but it isn't the apocalypse. It's a virus that is killing a higher percentage of those infected than most viruses. At some point, we will have to move on and live life.

Absolutely. Those numbers are lower than they would have been because of the shut down and social distancing measures. And as I said, the peak is expected to be between now and the end of the month. Once cases start dropping off, things can start opening up again. They have started reopening things in China because their peak has past. The same will happen here. We're just a few weeks behind them.

[TexasHusker]

I'm not sure what you mean there. Do you think they're overstating the need?

My nearest hospital has 18 ICU beds. As of today, all 18 are occupied with COVID patients and all 18 are on ventilators. I don't know if any additional beds have been converted to ICU use or if there are any more ventilator patients but it's highly unusual to have every ICU bed on a vent.

I'll be working at one of the other hospitals tomorrow so I'll get a firsthand look at how things are there.

I've been a doctor for 30 years. I've never seen anything like this before. I don't really care what you think about CNN or any other media outlet. I can tell you from the front lines that this is crazy bad. The fact that my peers and I are being "trained" (and I use that term loosely) to be able to work in the hospital this month is terrifying to all of us. A couple of members of our team just finished residency last year so it's not that long since they were in the hospital, but for others it's been 5 or 10 or 20+ years. Last time I treated an inpatient was in January 2000. I will freely admit I've lost sleep the past few days knowing that I'll be doing it tomorrow for the first time since then.

I think it's not trending as bad as Cuomo thought. He said NY was going to need something like 37,000 ICU beds. No doubt it is horrible, but I don't think it is as bad as the news outlets are reporting. That's not saying you and your colleages aren't living through a personal hell at this time.

Hey, my businesses are closed. That's awful. But that doesn't mean we are in a depression, either.

God speed with your work at the hospital. That will be rough.

[TexasHusker]

Absolutely. Those numbers are lower than they would have been because of the shut down and social distancing measures. And as I said, the peak is expected to be between now and the end of the month. Once cases start dropping off, things can start opening up again. They have started reopening things in China because their peak has past. The same will happen here. We're just a few weeks behind them.

I can't really use China as any point of reference, and neither should anyone else. Those lying sacks of *h*t over there should face a firing squad. Who the hell knows what they are doing.

[disneysteve]

I think it's not trending as bad as Cuomo thought. He said NY was going to need something like 37,000 ICU beds.

And I think that's because the social distancing and shut downs have helped flatten the curve, which is exactly what they were hoping it would accomplish.

Look, at the end of all of this, if it looks like we all grossly overreacted, then the plan will have been a success. If the death rate is a lot lower than predicted, then all of the mitigation measures will have worked.

[TexasHusker]

And I think that's because the social distancing and shut downs have helped flatten the curve, which is exactly what they were hoping it would accomplish.

Look, at the end of all of this, if it looks like we all grossly overreacted, then the plan will have been a success. If the death rate is a lot lower than predicted, then all of the mitigation measures will have worked.

yep good plan, it just can't go on indefinitely or we won't have an economy.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Dr. Barbara Ferrare of Los Angeles County (Hawaii's equivalent is Dr. Bruce Anderson Public Health) said this week being one of the worst weeks and next week to avoid going grocery shopping at all costs. Bad timing because I didn't have any food.

In Los Angeles I went to Food 4 Less today and had a line of shopping carts waiting to get inside only about 10 shopping carts long but line was not moving. So drove to Walmart Neighborhood market which is smaller than a regular Walmart and they only sell food. Had a staff outside limiting the number of customers going inside. I was able to walk right inside. Got 3 Blarney Stone corned beef ($14.50 each & boiling it now), 1 Butterball turkey, 2 lbs pork chops, and 1 rotisserie chicken. Onions, 5 lb bag carrots, broccoli, bananas, 2 cans tomato sauce for gisantes (have pimentos), bell peppers, avocados, cabbage, 2 bags frozen blueberries, fresh strawberries, personal watermelon, 12 pack diet coke, 2 bags frozen peas, 18 count eggs (finally found eggs after 4 weeks of not finding any, so happy). Couldn't find potatoes, no ginger, no garlic but no need, eating rice instead. I hope this will last 2 weeks to limit my exposure. Hunkering down due to this will be the worst 2 weeks in Los Angeles.