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Anybody buying on this downturn?

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    #31
    There have been a lot of corrections since 2008 and even 2 "bears". So the ride hasn't been all up. 2018 really sucked.

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      #32
      I didn’t realize the correction from 2018. Fascinating. I think I have like $11K in the market in an old IRA somewhere. It’s probably $9500 now.
      Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

      -George Carlin

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        #33
        Great chart. It shows that there hasn't technically been a bear market but we've gotten as close as 0.22% away from one so saying it's been an 11-year bull market is a little deceptive.
        Steve

        * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
        * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
        * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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          #34
          My accounts were down -5% in 2018.

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            #35
            Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
            Great chart. It shows that there hasn't technically been a bear market but we've gotten as close as 0.22% away from one so saying it's been an 11-year bull market is a little deceptive.
            A bear market is a protracted period of time when equities are mostly down, on average 9 months. Bear markets can shed 30-40% of shareholder value and take 3-5 years to recover on average. We haven’t experienced that in many years.

            A correction is generally a “whipsaw” where the downturn is sharp and steep, but recovers within a few months.

            The corona virus will not plunge the markets into bear territory, but another shoe of some sort dropping - geopolitical crisis, election of a socialist president, etc. - certainly could. Normally it takes two or three things to create a bear.

            Bear markets can delay retirement plans for a decade or more. I’ve seen it before and I’ll see it again.
            Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

            -George Carlin

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              #36
              Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

              A bear market is a protracted period of time when equities are mostly down, on average 9 months.
              A bear market is simply a 20% drop from the recent high. It doesn't have to last any particular amount of time to be a bear market. It can recover quickly and still count.
              Steve

              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

              Comment


                #37
                Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                A bear market is simply a 20% drop from the recent high. It doesn't have to last any particular amount of time to be a bear market. It can recover quickly and still count.
                That could happen today, but I wouldn’t define such as bear. A bear is when there is sustained negative sentiment against the markets, where seemingly no news makes it rally. Energy has been in a multi year bear, as an example.
                Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

                -George Carlin

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                  #38
                  Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

                  That could happen today, but I wouldn’t define such as bear. A bear is when there is sustained negative sentiment against the markets, where seemingly no news makes it rally. Energy has been in a multi year bear, as an example.
                  I understand, but the actual definition is simply a 20% drop. Duration isn't part of the definition.

                  I think the negative sentiment is going to hang on until the Coronavirus situation settles down. It's having a broad effect on business and economic activity. Travel plans being cancelled. Professional meetings and conferences scrapped. Study abroad students returning home. Cruises, casinos, airlines, tech companies, manufacturing supply lines, etc. And it only seems to be getting worse with each passing day.
                  Steve

                  * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                  * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                  * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                  Comment


                    #39
                    And quite frankly, a 20% correction only puts us back to late last year. The markets were approaching stupid and a reset for corona virus with a reasonably strong economy in an election year will keep us tracking back to record highs. I do wonder what will happen after the election. Trump has been spending like a drunk sailor. And the Fed has been pumping trillions of cash into the credit market. At some point, that will cause a sustained bear. But not today I think.

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                      #40
                      If the current market correction is giving anyone a tummyache, take heart - things could be worse! For example, you could've just had your boss tell you that she's holding off opening a 401k for you because "the markets are in a free fall because of the coronavirus."

                      How did I get so lucky to have someone in my corner who knows the folly of buying low and is willing to prevent me from taking advantage of lower stock prices?

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                        #41
                        Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                        I understand, but the actual definition is simply a 20% drop. Duration isn't part of the definition.

                        I think the negative sentiment is going to hang on until the Coronavirus situation settles down. It's having a broad effect on business and economic activity. Travel plans being cancelled. Professional meetings and conferences scrapped. Study abroad students returning home. Cruises, casinos, airlines, tech companies, manufacturing supply lines, etc. And it only seems to be getting worse with each passing day.
                        Duration might not technically be part of the definition, but certainly a characteristic:

                        https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/here...y-can-get.html

                        “Bear markets have lasted 14.5 months on average and have taken two years to recover on average.”
                        Last edited by TexasHusker; 02-27-2020, 12:55 PM.
                        Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

                        -George Carlin

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                          #42
                          Originally posted by kork13 View Post
                          Actually, reconsidering... I'll put in a limit order for the BRK.B share at a deep discount. If the dip continues (significantly... like, 10% territory), I may as well snap up the cheap share, albeit just one. Why not?
                          Welp.... I'll admit when I'm wrong & eat my hat.... not 2 days later, and here we are at/below the 10% down range. I will say I'm surprised how quickly the market went down over the last few days. The real question is "Why" -- is it because of fear, or because of actual systemic problems with supply chain, losses, etc.? Presumably some of both, just a matter of how much the one vs. the other.

                          My trade didn't quite execute, but came within a few cents. Since the limit order didn't actually trigger, I decided to adjust the order to take it down some more. Getting greedy? Sure. But when it's just ~$200 that I'm messing with, I'm okay with playing with it a bit just for funsies. If it follows this trend, the buy will likely execute after just another day or two... But I suppose I can fiddle with it until it actually triggers.

                          On the upside, looks like my retirement savings buy in a few days will likely get to enjoy the lower prices.
                          "Praestantia per minutus" ... "Acta non verba"

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                            #43
                            While I'm not happy with this dip, my bonus and RSU's hit in 2 weeks, so maybe I will get some bargains. Either way, it looks like I will have to buy stocks to get my asset allocation back up to 60/40.

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                              #44
                              Originally posted by kork13 View Post
                              I will say I'm surprised how quickly the market went down over the last few days. The real question is "Why" -- is it because of fear, or because of actual systemic problems with supply chain, losses, etc.? Presumably some of both, just a matter of how much the one vs. the other.
                              I read earlier that it is the fastest drop to a correction in over 40 years.

                              I think there is certainly some fear involved but there is also some actual impact to businesses that has already occurred and will continue to be a drag on earnings for weeks or months. I mentioned earlier that Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneylands closed on January 25 and have not reopened. That's just 2 major vacation destinations that have been completely shuttered for over a month now. Over 200,000 flights have been cancelled so far. Not only does that impact the airlines but also all of the related businesses and support industries. It's also caused the price of jet fuel to drop to a 2-year low as demand has dropped off. The casino companies that have a presence in Macau are losing millions. The shipping business is suffering.

                              There are still people saying it's all fake news but there is real economic damage occurring.
                              Steve

                              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                              Comment


                                #45
                                It’s not entirely fake news, but more like embellished / over exaggerated. The panic and ridiculousness is real.

                                How many people didn’t die from carbon emissions pollution in China since the factories have been shuttered? Come on, people, let’s be real here.

                                The major media lives for just these moments.
                                Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

                                -George Carlin

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