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    Originally posted by safari View Post
    I liquidated all my stock holdings today, including 401K. Normally I would never advocate selling on the dip, but this is a very unique situation, unlike anything that ever happened before. The whole world is shutting down for a few months, so the stock market is going to continue plunging, regardless of what the government tries to do. I will re-enter the market once the spread of the virus starts slowing down, but I am not willing to ride this down wave.
    Curious, but how long have you been investing with equities? Not trying to criticize your decision based on age or make any argument. I've still got a ways to go for retirement (20+ yrs), and still consider myself a beginner investor. So I'm in it for the long haul, good or bad.
    "I'd buy that for a dollar!"

    Comment


      Originally posted by cypher1 View Post

      Curious, but how long have you been investing with equities? Not trying to criticize your decision based on age or make any argument. I've still got a ways to go for retirement (20+ yrs), and still consider myself a beginner investor. So I'm in it for the long haul, good or bad.
      I started investing in 2006 before the financial crisis. Never sold anything until now. I also have 20+ years until retirement, but I feel strongly that I made the right decision for several reasons. First, it will only get worse in the foreseeable future - this is not a guess, but a reality. Secondly, this is a worldwide pandemic - there is no country or industry that won't be negatively affected. I didn't make the decision to sell by listening to any experts - I based it on logical thinking.

      Comment


        DJIA down 3,000 points today. That was brutal.
        Steve

        * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
        * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
        * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

        Comment


          Originally posted by safari View Post

          First, it will only get worse in the foreseeable future - this is not a guess, but a reality. Secondly, this is a worldwide pandemic - there is no country or industry that won't be negatively affected.
          Stock prices factor in known information, so you have to consider that current prices may already account for lousy earnings for the next couple of quarters. That doesn't mean that prices will just keep falling endlessly.

          Some of the drop is panic selling from people who just want to get out at any price. Selling out after the market has dropped 25% is just locking in those paper losses.
          Steve

          * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
          * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
          * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

          Comment


            Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

            Stock prices factor in known information, so you have to consider that current prices may already account for lousy earnings for the next couple of quarters. That doesn't mean that prices will just keep falling endlessly.

            Some of the drop is panic selling from people who just want to get out at any price. Selling out after the market has dropped 25% is just locking in those paper losses.
            Normally I would agree, but in this situation I'd rather lock in a 25% loss from the high point than risk a 50-75% paper loss, which would take years to recover from. I've enjoyed substantial gains in the last 4 years, so overall I am very much in the green. I hope you're right that the downturn is already priced in, but I highly doubt it. Based on what's been happening around the world, it's going to get much worse before we'll start seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.

            Comment


              Originally posted by safari View Post

              Normally I would agree, but in this situation I'd rather lock in a 25% loss from the high point than risk a 50-75% paper loss, which would take years to recover from. I've enjoyed substantial gains in the last 4 years, so overall I am very much in the green. I hope you're right that the downturn is already priced in, but I highly doubt it. Based on what's been happening around the world, it's going to get much worse before we'll start seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.
              I don't think we're at the bottom yet so I don't disagree with you there. I'm at least 5 years from retirement, probably more, so I'm willing to hang in there.
              Steve

              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

              Comment


                Originally posted by safari View Post

                Normally I would agree, but in this situation I'd rather lock in a 25% loss from the high point than risk a 50-75% paper loss, which would take years to recover from. I've enjoyed substantial gains in the last 4 years, so overall I am very much in the green. I hope you're right that the downturn is already priced in, but I highly doubt it. Based on what's been happening around the world, it's going to get much worse before we'll start seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.
                LoL 75% paper loss? If that happens I'll remortgage my house and dump it into the market. Looking at some of these travel stocks, if it drops another 50% from today's levels from what you are saying, oh...man..I will be rich in 10 years..like filthy.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Singuy View Post

                  LoL 75% paper loss? If that happens I'll remortgage my house and dump it into the market. Looking at some of these travel stocks, if it drops another 50% from today's levels from what you are saying, oh...man..I will be rich in 10 years..like filthy.
                  You might get that opportunity. Many publicly traded companies are heading for bankruptcy. Any company with an iffy balance sheet right now is in deep dookie. How many companies out there have the cash to get through weeks or months of no income? The feds can print all the money they want. This is quickly trending toward making the financial crisis look like a limbo contest.
                  Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

                  -George Carlin

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by safari View Post
                    I liquidated all my stock holdings today, including 401K. Normally I would never advocate selling on the dip, but this is a very unique situation, unlike anything that ever happened before. The whole world is shutting down for a few months, so the stock market is going to continue plunging, regardless of what the government tries to do. I will re-enter the market once the spread of the virus starts slowing down, but I am not willing to ride this down wave.
                    How many years until you retire?
                    Gunga galunga...gunga -- gunga galunga.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by greenskeeper View Post

                      How many years until you retire?
                      20+ years till retirement, but in this case it doesn't matter. Why ride this out, if there is a certainty that it will get worse before it starts getting better. Normally I would never try to time the market because there is no way to tell whether a slide will continue, whether we bottomed out yet, etc., but here I don't have to listen to any analysts to see that the worse is yet to come. I have no doubts that the market will recover after the pandemic ends, the only question is how long that recovery will take. I am going to put all the money back in stocks once the virus spread starts slowing down. By temporarily exiting the stock market I will shorten the recovery time for my investments.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by safari View Post

                        20+ years till retirement, but in this case it doesn't matter. Why ride this out, if there is a certainty that it will get worse before it starts getting better. Normally I would never try to time the market because there is no way to tell whether a slide will continue, whether we bottomed out yet, etc., but here I don't have to listen to any analysts to see that the worse is yet to come. I have no doubts that the market will recover after the pandemic ends, the only question is how long that recovery will take. I am going to put all the money back in stocks once the virus spread starts slowing down. By temporarily exiting the stock market I will shorten the recovery time for my investments.
                        I'm turning 39 this month, so I'm guessing we're in a similar situation (I didn't start investing till 28). Since I don't expect to access my funds anytime soon, I'm gonna just stay the course and see how far it goes. Just a matter of comfort and risk tolerance, no judgment towards your decision.
                        "I'd buy that for a dollar!"

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by safari View Post

                          20+ years till retirement, but in this case it doesn't matter. Why ride this out, if there is a certainty that it will get worse before it starts getting better. Normally I would never try to time the market because there is no way to tell whether a slide will continue, whether we bottomed out yet, etc., but here I don't have to listen to any analysts to see that the worse is yet to come. I have no doubts that the market will recover after the pandemic ends, the only question is how long that recovery will take. I am going to put all the money back in stocks once the virus spread starts slowing down. By temporarily exiting the stock market I will shorten the recovery time for my investments.
                          I don't think anyone should begrudge you for your decision. I cashed out as the 2008 crisis was spiraling. Sure I would have eventually made all of that up, but I decided to go a different direction and at least in my case, I ended up making many times more. Do what you feel comfortable with. And keep in mind that many of those who might be preaching "long and strong" are in reality doing the same as you. My granddad told me "never live by cliches." "Buy and hold" is a cliche. Everyone buys and sells at some point. Be safe and good luck.
                          Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

                          -George Carlin

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by safari View Post
                            I liquidated all my stock holdings today, including 401K. Normally I would never advocate selling on the dip, but this is a very unique situation, unlike anything that ever happened before. The whole world is shutting down for a few months, so the stock market is going to continue plunging, regardless of what the government tries to do. I will re-enter the market once the spread of the virus starts slowing down, but I am not willing to ride this down wave.
                            100% agreed.

                            Comment


                              A bear market is the real test for your asset allocation and risk tolerance. It's easy to say, in theory, that you'd be okay with a 20 or 30 or 40% drop - until it actually happens and you find you're freaking out and lying awake all night convinced the world is ending. If that's the case and you need to pull back and reduce your stock exposure, go right ahead. You're not wrong.

                              And those of us who are holding on and even buying more aren't wrong either.

                              Before this slide started, I had $47,000 in cash in my Roth. I converted the account to a brokerage account, which I should have done months ago but never bothered. Then I moved $35,000 into my settlement account, used about $5,000 to buy JETS on Friday, and put in a limit order to buy more today but it didn't hit the target price. I'm okay with my risk tolerance. I'm sleeping fine at night.

                              Everybody's situation is different.
                              Steve

                              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

                                I don't think anyone should begrudge you for your decision. I cashed out as the 2008 crisis was spiraling. Sure I would have eventually made all of that up, but I decided to go a different direction and at least in my case, I ended up making many times more. Do what you feel comfortable with. And keep in mind that many of those who might be preaching "long and strong" are in reality doing the same as you. My granddad told me "never live by cliches." "Buy and hold" is a cliche. Everyone buys and sells at some point. Be safe and good luck.
                                Buying high and selling low is also a cliché. There's only one cliché here that makes you poor.

                                I argue that buying and holding is conventional wisdom NO ONE FOLLOWS. Or else there will be so many multi millionaires with all those apple/amazon/Microsoft/intel/list goes on and on stocks. But no, everyone sells to lock in gains or afraid of "losing more"..hey look another cliché. Buy and hold is perhaps exercised less than any cliché you can throw at the stock market.
                                Last edited by Singuy; 03-16-2020, 04:08 PM.

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