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    Goldman Sachs today said the S&P 500 could drop another 16% from today's close (3/16) to bottom at 2,000. But they also expect a rapid recovery by the end of the year.

    Obviously, only time will tell if they're right, but that's pretty much what I've said. Immense short-term pain but once the coronavirus threat is mitigated, a fairly speedy recovery. Let's home that's how it plays out.

    With Trump actually saying today that things are bad and that we could be heading into a recession - a pretty big admission coming from him - the market may continue its slide, though at the moment, futures are actually slightly positive. Tomorrow will be another interesting day.
    Steve

    * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
    * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
    * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

    Comment


      Originally posted by safari View Post
      I liquidated all my stock holdings today, including 401K. Normally I would never advocate selling on the dip, but this is a very unique situation, unlike anything that ever happened before. The whole world is shutting down for a few months, so the stock market is going to continue plunging, regardless of what the government tries to do. I will re-enter the market once the spread of the virus starts slowing down, but I am not willing to ride this down wave.
      On Thursday the 12th I sold all my equities except the small percent in my 401(k). Will buy it back when the volatility is over.

      Comment


        I was just looking at some current numbers. Just over a week ago, I made a watch list of a few stocks.

        CCL was $27.15 down from $44.06 a month earlier. Today it is $12.98
        RCL was $49.12 down from $117.23 a month earlier. Today it is $27.70

        I'm glad I didn't buy then. Those drops are outrageous. Where's the bottom?
        Steve

        * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
        * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
        * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

        Comment


          Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
          I was just looking at some current numbers. Just over a week ago, I made a watch list of a few stocks.

          CCL was $27.15 down from $44.06 a month earlier. Today it is $12.98
          RCL was $49.12 down from $117.23 a month earlier. Today it is $27.70

          I'm glad I didn't buy then. Those drops are outrageous. Where's the bottom?
          DisneySteve, I saw Exxon Mobile was trading at $35 this morning - thats a screaming buy.
          james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
          202.468.6043

          Comment


            Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post

            DisneySteve, I saw Exxon Mobile was trading at $35 this morning - thats a screaming buy.
            I bought some Chevron last week. Not a whole lot. I see fossil fuels going down the tubes once the EV vehicles reach 400 miles in range.
            Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

            -George Carlin

            Comment


              Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

              I bought some Chevron last week. Not a whole lot. I see fossil fuels going down the tubes once the EV vehicles reach 400 miles in range.
              I think it will be a long time before EVs are the norm.

              I think the oil companies and airlines will bounce back fairly quickly once the virus stuff settles down. I think the cruise lines will take longer but will come back, too. I just can't decide if I want to get on that "boat" at this point.
              Steve

              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

              Comment


                Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                I think it will be a long time before EVs are the norm.

                I think the oil companies and airlines will bounce back fairly quickly once the virus stuff settles down. I think the cruise lines will take longer but will come back, too. I just can't decide if I want to get on that "boat" at this point.
                EV adoption is all about market share conversion. People who have purchased an EV will most likely(96% chance) of never purchasing a gas car again. So as Tesla (and others) convert more and more people, the marketshare will just climb higher and higher as new car cycles around in 10 years or so. So it'll take awhile, but the market is forward looking. Things will get pretty bad for oil if 1 to 2 million people per year start going EV. So if any other car company doesn't have an EV program, then they essentially lost a customer to Tesla permanently. EVs are honestly not an alternative to ICE unlike how a Honda Civics is an alternative to Toyota corolla. The expectation of how your car should function is altered forever once you go EV, kind of how most never went back to flip phones after smart phones.
                Last edited by Singuy; 03-17-2020, 01:07 PM.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Singuy View Post
                  kind of how most never went back to flip phones after smart phones.
                  Have you not seen the Samsung Galaxy Z flip phone? They are back in fashion.There is a new Motorola Razr too.
                  Steve

                  * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                  * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                  * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                    Have you not seen the Samsung Galaxy Z flip phone? They are back in fashion.There is a new Motorola Razr too.
                    LoL, yes, but they are smart phones that flip. Also it's not going to be very popular because of reliability issues while providing very little functional value.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Singuy View Post

                      EV adoption is all about market share conversion. People who have purchased an EV will most likely(96% chance) of never purchasing a gas car again. So as Tesla (and others) convert more and more people, the marketshare will just climb higher and higher as new car cycles around in 10 years or so. So it'll take awhile, but the market is forward looking. Things will get pretty bad for oil if 1 to 2 million people per year start going EV. So if any other car company doesn't have an EV program, then they essentially lost a customer to Tesla permanently. EVs are honestly not an alternative to ICE unlike how a Honda Civics is an alternative to Toyota corolla. The expectation of how your car should function is altered forever once you go EV, kind of how most never went back to flip phones after smart phones.
                      Electrons for you = cheaper oil for me
                      Gunga galunga...gunga -- gunga galunga.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
                        I was just looking at some current numbers. Just over a week ago, I made a watch list of a few stocks.

                        CCL was $27.15 down from $44.06 a month earlier. Today it is $12.98
                        RCL was $49.12 down from $117.23 a month earlier. Today it is $27.70

                        I'm glad I didn't buy then. Those drops are outrageous. Where's the bottom?
                        Moved $10k into our brokerage account....looking hard at airlines and cruise companies but don't think we're at the bottom until the number of new daily corona cases level out.

                        If I play this right my mortgage might be paid off sooner than expected because any profit will be put towards the principal.
                        Gunga galunga...gunga -- gunga galunga.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
                          A bear market is the real test for your asset allocation and risk tolerance. It's easy to say, in theory, that you'd be okay with a 20 or 30 or 40% drop - until it actually happens and you find you're freaking out and lying awake all night convinced the world is ending. If that's the case and you need to pull back and reduce your stock exposure, go right ahead. You're not wrong.
                          This binary world view ("it'll recover before I retire" vs. "the world is ending") is very distressing. It ignores all sorts of other attitudes, like "sell high and buy low".

                          If I hadn't had "buy and hold for the long term", maybe I'd have followed the "sell high, buy low" dictum and sold in late February.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Nutria View Post
                            If I hadn't had "buy and hold for the long term", maybe I'd have followed the "sell high, buy low" dictum and sold in late February.
                            Hindsight is 20/20. Would you really have sold out in February? Were you thinking about it? Why not in early Feb or late Jan? The market has been climbing almost nonstop for 10 years now. I guarantee you there are millions who sold out at various points over that time thinking it couldn't go any higher.
                            Steve

                            * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                            * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                            * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                              Hindsight is 20/20. Would you really have sold out in February? Were you thinking about it? Why not in early Feb or late Jan? The market has been climbing almost nonstop for 10 years now. I guarantee you there are millions who sold out at various points over that time thinking it couldn't go any higher.
                              I was watching the market volatility. Even now, it's down one day, and up the next (though farther down than up).

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                                Hindsight is 20/20. Would you really have sold out in February? Were you thinking about it? Why not in early Feb or late Jan? The market has been climbing almost nonstop for 10 years now. I guarantee you there are millions who sold out at various points over that time thinking it couldn't go any higher.
                                This. Coulda shoulda woulda. Around 3,650 days, sort of hard to time it perfect.

                                Comment

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