June Inflation Highest Since February, CPI +2.7%

[Fishindude77]

i too will say based on personal fortune we have had a super year. But i know many are not. It's clearly a divide of the haves and have nots coming to the US starker than before

Has there ever been a time in history when this wasn't the case?
There have always been rich and there have always been poor. The poor in the U.S. today are some of the wealthiest folks alive if you take a look around the globe.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

i too will say based on personal fortune we have had a super year. But i know many are not. It's clearly a divide of the haves and have nots coming to the US starker than before

[QuarterMillionMan]

Ha-ha, okay I was wrong.

[ua_guy]

I predict when the oil market opens on Sunday night the price should drop a few dollars. Things keep getting better and better. God bless America.

Gobbless, QMM

[QuarterMillionMan]

I predict when the oil market opens on Sunday night the price should drop a few dollars. Things keep getting better and better. God bless America.

[ua_guy]

There will be a lot of wind on our back in 2026, no tax on tips, no tax on social security, no tax on overtime, I think interest deduction on American made cars, etc.

Some of those things may provide limited help. There are potential ways those things could also need caution and additional consideration.

Before those laws were passed, most people making tips weren't paying federal income taxes anyway, so tax-free tips is a moot point. Still pay Medicare and SS on tips, that doesn't change. States still decide whether or not they are subject to state income tax.

Now, someone may report tips thinking they'll be getting a tax break whereas before, they under-reported or hid income from tips. Reporting tips may now put them over income thresholds and they will end up owing federal taxes.

Tax on social security was not eliminated. Seniors under certain incomes can qualify for an additional deduction, temporarily. This is potentially good. But the benefit may be limited, and state income taxes still apply.

Tax on overtime was not eliminated. A deduction is now available for premium overtime (The extra .5 in 1.5x pay) for individuals under certain income thresholds.

All of this is happening at a time when we're paying an additional 10-30% tax on just about all goods. I wish these deductions were coming at a time when the economic prosperity wasn't stunted by tariffs.

[QuarterMillionMan]

There will be a lot of wind on our back in 2026, no tax on tips, no tax on social security, no tax on overtime, I think interest deduction on American made cars, etc.

[disneysteve]

From my personal view, the "economy" is just fine.
That doesn't mean I don't look at the economy as a whole and underlying indicators.

THIS! So many people don't look beyond their own situation. If they're doing okay, that's all that matters, but that's not how it works.

I'm happily retired. Our portfolio is ending the year over 450K higher than it started. Yes bills are higher and spending is higher but we have a big enough nest egg that it doesn't matter. But we are in a tiny minority of Americans, likely the top 5% or less. Our reality is not shared by 95% of our friends and neighbors.

[ua_guy]

Exactly. It's not opinion, it's what retailers are reporting. And it's the same data trend witnessed during periods of economic slowing since these types of value/bargain retailers existed.

From my personal view, the "economy" is just fine. Stock markets are higher than a kite. I remain employed. The price of energy, food, and consumer goods don't meaningfully impact my financial trajectory. That doesn't mean I don't look at the economy as a whole and underlying indicators.

[disneysteve]

I think a great many of our opinions on these matters are based on what region we live in. Just a few thoughts.

Where I live and in many other semi rural areas of the country, WalMart is the only game in town so everyone shops there no matter their financial status.
Also, $100k is not that big of a deal for a couple who both work. I'd hardly call that rich or affluent, just pretty normal family income.

Regarding the dollar stores. Again, in the rural and semi rural areas of the country, there is a Dollar General in every little town of 1000 people or more. They've set up stores everywhere to capture the rural markets, so when you need a gallon of milk of loaf of bread you stop in Dollar General, Many of us don't have Whole Foods, Costco, Trader Joes, Wigmans or even a Kroeger without driving 30-50 miles or more.

That's definitely true. But on a national basis, those chains like Walmart and Dollar Tree are seeing their higher income customer base grow significantly.

[Fishindude77]

I think a great many of our opinions on these matters are based on what region we live in. Just a few thoughts.

Where I live and in many other semi rural areas of the country, WalMart is the only game in town so everyone shops there no matter their financial status.
Also, $100k is not that big of a deal for a couple who both work. I'd hardly call that rich or affluent, just pretty normal family income.

Regarding the dollar stores. Again, in the rural and semi rural areas of the country, there is a Dollar General in every little town of 1000 people or more. They've set up stores everywhere to capture the rural markets, so when you need a gallon of milk of loaf of bread you stop in Dollar General, Many of us don't have Whole Foods, Costco, Trader Joes, Wigmans or even a Kroeger without driving 30-50 miles or more.

[ua_guy]

How do they know their customers income level?
Wouldn't it always be the case that people of greater means spend more than those with less?

Data aggregation and profiling.

People making over $100k aren't typically Walmart customers like their large customer base is. They are increasingly Walmart customers because the middle class is being pinched, budgets are tighter and people are forced to save money where they can.

Meanwhile, Target, which has long since catered to the more affluent value shopper, has lost some of its customer base.

Also, the dollar-store chains have seen a huge increase in higher income shoppers as well.

The trend reverses when the economy is truly growing and consumers have high confidence and more disposable income.

[disneysteve]

Here's an article from earlier this year about the same trend at Walmart.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/19/walmart-earnings-wealthy-shoppers-boost-sales.html

[disneysteve]

How do they know their customers income level?
Wouldn't it always be the case that people of greater means spend more than those with less?

Yes, people of greater means spend more than those of lesser means, but they are increasingly shopping at discount retailers like Walmart and Dollar Tree. That's the part that is new and concerning.

Here is just one recent article about Dollar Tree regarding this trend but it's not unique at all.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rich-people-flooding-dollar-stores-190518425.html

[Fishindude77]

Walmart reported a while ago that the biggest chunk of increased sales they've seen is from shoppers earning over 100K/year.

How do they know their customers income level?
Wouldn't it always be the case that people of greater means spend more than those with less?