June Inflation Highest Since February, CPI +2.7%

[disneysteve]

oh inflation is rampant. I can't believe they are saying it's not.

The "official" inflation number excludes FOOD and ENERGY which is inane since those two items have been climbing sharply. Of course the inflation rate looks better when you leave out stuff that is sucking up more and more of everyone's money.

[ua_guy]

Core inflation is at 3%, which is still elevated. That's not "crushed" as some would suggest, and that's inflation on top of already sky-high prices.

[Fishindude77]

Inflation rates at least seem to be trending the right direction.
2021 4.7%
2022 8%
2023 4.1%
2024 2.9%

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Inflation rates at least seem to be trending the right direction.
2021 4.7%
2022 8%
2023 4.1%
2024 2.9%

But how much was because of stimulus from Covid? And how much is now natural inflation? That natural inflation is what I told people causes houses to increase in value. Stocks too. Houses are not going back to 2007 prices and probably not even 2015 prices. It's not going down 50% to get back to 2015 prices. Now is it too high? Maybe but there still should be a natural amount it goes up.

[ua_guy]

Inflation rates at least seem to be trending the right direction.
2021 4.7%
2022 8%
2023 4.1%
2024 2.9%

Is it really, though? You left off 2025 for some reason, which is basically holding at 3%.

[Fishindude77]

Is it really, though? You left off 2025 for some reason, which is basically holding at 3%.

Yep 2025 is up 0.1% from 2024 to date, big deal.
Nearly the same as 2024.

At least we're not seeing the 4-8% inflation of previous years. I'd call it an improvement.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Things currently look pretty good, gasoline down, egg prices back to normal, etc. Seems like the economy is getting a whole lot better. Crickets.

[disneysteve]

Things currently look pretty good, gasoline down, egg prices back to normal, etc. Seems like the economy is getting a whole lot better.

I don't know where you are looking. The economy is not doing well at all. Inflation is up. Unemployment is up. Corporate bankruptcies surged in 2025. Business closures are up. Health insurance is up sharply for 2026. But eggs are cheaper so everything must be okay.

[Fishindude77]

I don't know where you are looking. The economy is not doing well at all. Inflation is up. Unemployment is up. Corporate bankruptcies surged in 2025. Business closures are up. Health insurance is up sharply for 2026. But eggs are cheaper so everything must be okay.

You and I don't read / listen / watch or observe the same things or news.
Things look pretty good in this neck of the woods. Inflation much improved, fuel prices lower than they've been in a while, plenty of jobs available, area businesses are expanding, very few foreclosures in the area, lending rates have gone down a little, etc.

I blame the insurance increases on the federal government getting involved in a business they have no business in to start with.
Nearly everything they touch winds up a financial mess.

[disneysteve]

Things look pretty good in this neck of the woods. Inflation much improved, fuel prices lower than they've been in a while, plenty of jobs available, area businesses are expanding, very few foreclosures in the area, lending rates have gone down a little, etc.

A lot of things are definitely regional but I'm talking about national stats.

The November unemployment rate was the highest in over 4 years.

Business bankruptcies through October were at the highest level since 2010 following the Great Recession.

The foreclosure rate jumped by double digits for 2025 compared to 2024.

Consumer debt hit a record high in 2025 topping $18.5 trillion.

But again, eggs are cheaper (which was almost entirely due to avian flu, not inflationary issues) and gas is lower (which is largely influenced by international conditions, not domestic ones) so everything is peachy keen.

[ua_guy]

I'll celebrate when there's something notable to celebrate.

Q3 inflation was 2.7% which is still up from the beginning of the year, and that's based on a flawed report because of the shutdown. It's very likely higher. As mentioned, unemployment is up and job growth has slowed. Economic stats aside, perception of how the economy is being handled is overwhelmingly negative.

The cure for lower prices is lower prices. It's starting with energy, and it will likely take some of the economy with it. But at least gas is slightly cheaper - we could lose 10% market value next year in stocks, but hey, at least we saved some chump change on gas, right?

Don't forget that farmers are being crippled and $12 Billion have gone into propping them up because of botched tariff policies. Egg prices were subsidized, billions put into that.

Blame the government for health insurance prices... OK... that's only one part of it. That rips into the budgets for people who continue to pay for it, and that affects the economy negatively.

It's a tale of two worlds at the moment. Retail data basically says top earners are keeping things alive, and the bottom 80% are struggling. We're fine - as are most of the regulars here - but some of us realize that's probably not the reality for most people.

[disneysteve]

It's a tale of two worlds at the moment. Retail data basically says top earners are keeping things alive, and the bottom 80% are struggling. We're fine - as are most of the regulars here - but some of us realize that's probably not the reality for most people.

This is a big one that I don't see discussed nearly enough. Yes, retail sales are holding up well, but that's because the rich are still spending, offsetting decreased spending by everyone else. That's nice but it's probably not sustainable and gives a skewed view of how things are going.

Walmart reported a while ago that the biggest chunk of increased sales they've seen is from shoppers earning over 100K/year. That tells us two things. People of more average incomes are shopping less and people of higher incomes are being more price conscious. Neither of those are good signs for the economy.

[Fishindude77]

Walmart reported a while ago that the biggest chunk of increased sales they've seen is from shoppers earning over 100K/year.

How do they know their customers income level?
Wouldn't it always be the case that people of greater means spend more than those with less?

[disneysteve]

How do they know their customers income level?
Wouldn't it always be the case that people of greater means spend more than those with less?

Yes, people of greater means spend more than those of lesser means, but they are increasingly shopping at discount retailers like Walmart and Dollar Tree. That's the part that is new and concerning.

Here is just one recent article about Dollar Tree regarding this trend but it's not unique at all.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rich-people-flooding-dollar-stores-190518425.html

[disneysteve]

Here's an article from earlier this year about the same trend at Walmart.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/19/walmart-earnings-wealthy-shoppers-boost-sales.html