June Inflation Highest Since February, CPI +2.7%

[ua_guy]

I'll just leave this here.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpi-report-june-2025-inflation-trump-tariffs/

[myrdale]

Better than it was a year ago. ALOT better than it was three years ago.

[disneysteve]

Better than it was a year ago..

A year ago inflation was coming down. Now it's going up. Yes the rate today is better than the rate a year ago but the trend is not.

[kork13]

I was trying to remember when I saw this figure get announced .... What's the Fed's official inflation target? 2%? 2.5%? I recall that 2.5-3% is pretty typical historically over a long term measure... Though I believe it has generally run lower for most of the last decade or two.

[Fishindude77]

Actually on a pretty decent path, highest month this year was 3%.
Last several years average rates:
2021 4.7%
2022 8.0%
2023 4.1%
2024 2.9%

[ua_guy]

It appears we're transitioning from "let's see how this works out" to "we're starting to see how this works out". We're late in accomplishing 88/90 trade deals promised in the last 90 days, so I'm not inclined to think it gets much better from here.

[disneysteve]

I was trying to remember when I saw this figure get announced .... What's the Fed's official inflation target? 2%? 2.5%? I recall that 2.5-3% is pretty typical historically over a long term measure... Though I believe it has generally run lower for most of the last decade or two.

Yes, looked at simply as a single data point, 2.7% is not bad at all. But that ignores the trend. A lot of companies put off increasing prices in hopes that the tariffs would be short lived but eventually had to raise prices and those increases probably aren't done yet. Plus there is now another round of threats. If any or all of those happen, it will push prices even higher. Staying at 2.7% or 3% would be great but there's sufficient reason to believe that won't be the case.

[Fishindude77]

All this discussion regarding tariffs is purely speculation at this point.
One thing that does have me concerned is the discussion of funding a bunch more of the Ukraine / Russia endless money pit.

[ua_guy]

All this discussion regarding tariffs is purely speculation at this point.

False. Manufacturers and importers have raised their prices in response to tariffs and those costs are actively being passed on to US consumers.

[disneysteve]

All this discussion regarding tariffs is purely speculation at this point.

No it isn't. Many tariffs are already in place. More are threatened so perhaps you can call those speculation, but not the ones that already exist. We're starting to see the inflationary impact of the ones that have already been enacted.

[ua_guy]

Here's one. Since inauguration day, the fed has spent $3.6 Trillion. If we actually believe that "tariffs" have brought in 106 billion, which could be a very high estimation, but let's pretend that's fact. You the consumer paid these taxes directly or indirectly, not the countries of origin. That covers 3% of the money spent by the Feds so far, or less than 5 days of this national spending spree.

So. much. winning.

[ua_guy]

Another interesting one - but is anyone really shocked, though? Beef prices are up since the start of the year. Not that rising beef prices are historically abnormal, but prices have risen 10%+ since the beginning of the year. Tariffs are a significant factor.

https://apnews.com/article/beef-prices-record-high-cattle-steak-cows-e9fc33bbaec6a76fb243e277bbbb7c0e

[Fishindude77]

It says right in the article you attached "President Donald Trump’s tariffs have yet to have a major impact on beef prices". Main reason beef prices are high is because the American beef herd is at an all time low due to sell off. The sell of is due to the high prices beef is currently fetching.

If you read further the majority of imported stuff is lean trimmings from Australia, New Zeeland and Brazil. That stuff is junk (cheap) range fed beef they blend with good American beef to allow them to label it as "leaner".
Don't know about you, but I don't want any of that stuff.

Unless we get a steak out to eat somewhere which is rare, our beef is pretty locally sourced.

[ua_guy]

It says right in the article you attached "President Donald Trump’s tariffs have yet to have a major impact on beef prices". Main reason beef prices are high is because the American beef herd is at an all time low due to sell off. The sell of is due to the high prices beef is currently fetching.

If you read further the majority of imported stuff is lean trimmings from Australia, New Zeeland and Brazil. That stuff is junk (cheap) range fed beef they blend with good American beef to allow them to label it as "leaner".
Don't know about you, but I don't want any of that stuff.

Unless we get a steak out to eat somewhere which is rare, our beef is pretty locally sourced.

Your line about the sell off makes no sense. If beef is fetching such a high price, why are farmers reducing the size of their herds? Wouldn't they want to produce more?

The domestic sell off is due to hugely spiked feed prices, drought, and ranchers reducing their costs. I doubt markets for export have gotten any better because of reciprocal tariffs.

For imported beef, no, it's not what I want on my plate, but it's what's affordable for many in our country (read: those who are burdened by egg prices), and the cost of that beef has gone up...

[myrdale]

Beef prices are up since the start of the year....... Tariffs are a significant factor.

I'm scratching my head how tariffs on foreign goods have any effect on domestic agriculture. I'm pretty sure tariffs have zero effect on locally grown poultry, beef, or grains.