June Inflation Highest Since February, CPI +2.7%

[ua_guy]

Another interesting one - but is anyone really shocked, though? Beef prices are up since the start of the year. Not that rising beef prices are historically abnormal, but prices have risen 10%+ since the beginning of the year. Tariffs are a significant factor.

https://apnews.com/article/beef-prices-record-high-cattle-steak-cows-e9fc33bbaec6a76fb243e277bbbb7c0e

[ua_guy]

Here's one. Since inauguration day, the fed has spent $3.6 Trillion. If we actually believe that "tariffs" have brought in 106 billion, which could be a very high estimation, but let's pretend that's fact. You the consumer paid these taxes directly or indirectly, not the countries of origin. That covers 3% of the money spent by the Feds so far, or less than 5 days of this national spending spree.

So. much. winning.

[disneysteve]

All this discussion regarding tariffs is purely speculation at this point.

No it isn't. Many tariffs are already in place. More are threatened so perhaps you can call those speculation, but not the ones that already exist. We're starting to see the inflationary impact of the ones that have already been enacted.

[ua_guy]

All this discussion regarding tariffs is purely speculation at this point.

False. Manufacturers and importers have raised their prices in response to tariffs and those costs are actively being passed on to US consumers.

[Fishindude77]

All this discussion regarding tariffs is purely speculation at this point.
One thing that does have me concerned is the discussion of funding a bunch more of the Ukraine / Russia endless money pit.

[disneysteve]

I was trying to remember when I saw this figure get announced .... What's the Fed's official inflation target? 2%? 2.5%? I recall that 2.5-3% is pretty typical historically over a long term measure... Though I believe it has generally run lower for most of the last decade or two.

Yes, looked at simply as a single data point, 2.7% is not bad at all. But that ignores the trend. A lot of companies put off increasing prices in hopes that the tariffs would be short lived but eventually had to raise prices and those increases probably aren't done yet. Plus there is now another round of threats. If any or all of those happen, it will push prices even higher. Staying at 2.7% or 3% would be great but there's sufficient reason to believe that won't be the case.

[ua_guy]

It appears we're transitioning from "let's see how this works out" to "we're starting to see how this works out". We're late in accomplishing 88/90 trade deals promised in the last 90 days, so I'm not inclined to think it gets much better from here.

[Fishindude77]

Actually on a pretty decent path, highest month this year was 3%.
Last several years average rates:
2021 4.7%
2022 8.0%
2023 4.1%
2024 2.9%

[kork13]

I was trying to remember when I saw this figure get announced .... What's the Fed's official inflation target? 2%? 2.5%? I recall that 2.5-3% is pretty typical historically over a long term measure... Though I believe it has generally run lower for most of the last decade or two.

[disneysteve]

Better than it was a year ago..

A year ago inflation was coming down. Now it's going up. Yes the rate today is better than the rate a year ago but the trend is not.

[myrdale]

Better than it was a year ago. ALOT better than it was three years ago.

[ua_guy]

I'll just leave this here.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpi-report-june-2025-inflation-trump-tariffs/