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    #31
    Originally posted by QuarterMillionMan View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is that fully vaccinated people have 0% chance of death or severe hospitalization from COVID. Is that correct?
    Well I don't know that we can ever say 0% but yes, the risk of severe illness or death is about as close to zero as it can be.
    Steve

    * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
    * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
    * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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      #32
      Upon full vaccination and when vaccines become readily available to all, should one get a booster shot of an additional 3rd shot or a 1-shot J & J shot as an “insurance” measure?

      Comment


        #33
        Originally posted by QuarterMillionMan View Post
        Upon full vaccination and when vaccines become readily available to all, should one get a booster shot of an additional 3rd shot or a 1-shot J & J shot as an “insurance” measure?
        We don’t know yet.

        I suspect an annual booster will be needed just like the flu shot but the data doesn’t exist yet.
        Steve

        * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
        * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
        * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

        Comment


          #34
          Interestingly, my clinic saw 2 flu cases this week, the first we’ve seen all season. I guess as people get COVID vaccines and start feeling safer and going out more, they’re upping their odds of catching other things.
          Steve

          * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
          * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
          * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

          Comment


            #35
            In the trials full vaccination showed 100% effective at preventing death so I extrapolated to the real world that fully vaccinated would have 0% of death which might be a stretch on my part. Click image for larger version

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              #36
              Originally posted by QuarterMillionMan View Post
              In the trials full vaccination showed 100% effective at preventing death so I extrapolated to the real world that fully vaccinated would have 0% of death which might be a stretch on my part. Click image for larger version

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              Could be. As that article says, "in trials anyway". The likelihood of maintaining 100% efficacy in the real world is low but even if it's "only" 98% or 95%, that's still damn good.
              Steve

              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

              Comment


                #37
                Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
                Interestingly, my clinic saw 2 flu cases this week, the first we’ve seen all season. I guess as people get COVID vaccines and start feeling safer and going out more, they’re upping their odds of catching other things.
                I was just checking the CDC IFI statistics for this year. I guess we are not out of the woods for potential ideal flu conditions and I was wondering if the flu season would be extended to the right (on the chart).

                I was actually surprised at how low the IFI were for this season because everyone was super worried about having both COVID and Flu. It makes me think that maybe folks are actually trying to follow the guidelines for COVID.

                https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekl...LI09_small.gif

                Comment


                  #38
                  Originally posted by Like2Plan View Post

                  I was just checking the CDC IFI statistics for this year. I guess we are not out of the woods for potential ideal flu conditions and I was wondering if the flu season would be extended to the right (on the chart).

                  I was actually surprised at how low the IFI were for this season because everyone was super worried about having both COVID and Flu. It makes me think that maybe folks are actually trying to follow the guidelines for COVID.

                  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekl...LI09_small.gif
                  All of the behavioral changes to prevent COVID also prevent flu: masks, social distancing, hand washing, surface cleaning, avoiding crowds. As people gradually get back to normal activities, the flu risk comes back (as does the COVID risk). The only good thing is that flu is temperature-sensitive so as it warms up, flu goes away; COVID does not.
                  Steve

                  * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                  * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                  * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                  Comment


                    #39
                    I am confused by the original post. You say you "fall under the 55 to 64 year-old age group" and that half your friends have been vaccinated. And you're upset?

                    You're appalled that they work off of the honor system? You're surprised that people lie?

                    Every single person who received a shot in California was given that shot by medical personnel. They are following the procedures provided by the state. My advice is to either change leadership in your state, or move.

                    As a similar note, I want to buy ammo. Every time I go into Academy Sports, they are completely sold out. No 9 mm, .308, 12 gauge, not even 22. It's not a priority for me to be there at 6 AM when the truck arrives, knowing they will be sold out within 15 minutes of that days delivery hitting the floor. It's an absolute free for all.

                    Rather than get frustrated, just consider: "If you're not able to buy ammo, just know some other patriot was" and know that sooner or later, the rush will be over, and I'll be able to stock up again.


                    Last edited by myrdale; 03-22-2021, 11:29 AM.

                    Comment


                      #40
                      Originally posted by Drake3287 View Post
                      Okay, not financial related but I feel like I need to yell at someone! I live here in California (which is half the problem) and fall under the 55 to 64 year-old group for vaccination. Problem is, it's a total free for-all around here and literally anybody who wants a vaccine is getting one and no one's doing anything about it. I would say literally half the friends I have within my age group (this includes ton's of old high school friend's on Facebook) have all been vaccinated, and no, the majority of these people don't work in any essential field. Half of them are retired like myself. All day today I've been seeing these people post on Facebook about getting shot number 1 or shot 2.
                      Drake,

                      I don't know if you qualify now, but I was noticing some available appointments in various parts of CA on the CVS web site this morning:

                      https://www.cvs.com/immunizations/covid-19-vaccine

                      Comment


                        #41
                        NBCNews does have an interesting tool for seeing if you're eligible or not:

                        https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/plan-your-vaccine/

                        A few interesting points:

                        California is 65+.
                        Georgia is 55+.
                        Colorado is 50+.
                        Connecticut is 45+.
                        Mississippi, and Alaska are 16+

                        Regardless of what state you live in, if you're 102 or older, you're out of luck!

                        Comment


                          #42
                          My spouse and I got our first Pfizer vaccine on Saturday. We're grateful because by the time we're fully "cured" with our second shot, we're going to be helping my 80 year old mother move across state lines. We scheduled it through our clinic. Earlier in the last week or so they sent an email indicating that they would contact us and not to contact them. I think they might have said something about random folks being contacted for appointments. I was part of a "vaccine hunter" FB group and at some point they indicated my medical system had appointments available so we just signed up. We were eligible based on our state guidelines. I wasn't sure it would work but it did. When we were there, we had our second shot scheduled. There are other folks that are not as fortunate, including my sister who I think is also eligible (type 1 diabetes) but I think she's waiting to be contacted (I don't know why different approaches to life). She also took a vacation to USVI in February. There are folks who are actively working hard to get their vaccine and those who are waiting to be invited. I also know in our state there were two situations where folks were giving "vaccines" that weren't effective (incorrect dilution and some straight up saline). This was reported on the local news not just rumor. I'm not suprised because it's humans doing this. It is a bit like Hunger Games. I hope everyone who wants one can get one soon.

                          Comment


                            #43
                            I'm annoyed with the rollout where I am (WA). Sorry but I think there were huge mistakes made. First they should have put teachers ahead of age. They wanted schools open? Then vaccinate the teachers and don't expect them to be happy to work otherwise. Sorry but Inslee failed. He did the opposite of oregon which prioritized teachers and then moved to elderly. And yes grocery store workers should have been earlier. I have no qualms waiting for my spot, but heck I don't blame teachers for not going back. I blame the system for expecting them to wait their turn when they should have been moved to the top of the line. They were approved March 3rd, why weren't they in january? They did everyone in nursing homes which is fine but the rest of the elderly? Stay home for another month and let the teachers have gotten vaccinated and grocery clerks. They'd have been safer with those people who work and are out getting vaccinated than old people staying at home!

                            Next up yes I'm annoyed by people who cut the line and lie about it. It was ridiculous I was texting with a friend who wanted to travel for spring break so she and her husband and 5 other families drove to a mass vaccination site that she claimed "open" up to everyone and just vaccinated everyone. You didn't have to be in the tiers. She sent me the website and right there it said tiers 1a, 1b1, 1b2. But people want to cut the line at least i guess they are vaccinated. But really does 2 months really end it all? If they could get the vaccine may 1st?
                            LivingAlmostLarge Blog

                            Comment


                              #44
                              I guess one positive is least is that folks want to get the vaccine.

                              Another positive that I can think of comparing this to my experience getting the Shingrix shot (when it first rolled out) is that once you get the first COVID shot, you get the follow up appointment and you don't have to search and search for the 2nd one, too. When the Shingrix shot was first available, it took me quite a while of going from pharmacy to pharmacy (in person) to find the first dose. And, the second one was just as challenging. Now, I know there is no comparison between getting the Shingles and getting COVID (a potentially fatal disease). But, it would have been great for the pharmacy to have had a similar policy back then. Also, it is much better to be able to look for a vaccine appointment online than to have to go to the store (and have them tell you they don't have any). I hope they continue this for getting vaccines in the future.

                              I imagine public health experts are going to study what worked and what went wrong with the COVID vaccine roll out. In my mind, the four things I ask are: 1. Is the death rate being reduced? 2. Is the hospitalization rate going down 3. Is the infection rate going down? and finally 4. Is one state doing better than another (as measured by 1,2 &3)?

                              https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...iew/index.html

                              #3 is very important for knocking this down because each iteration of the COVID disease whether it is a light case or a severe case lends itself to the potential for mutations which could render the vaccine useless.

                              https://jvi.asm.org/content/84/19/9733

                              https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7293453/

                              https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

                              https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...ut-very-slowly


                              Now, if you look at the data--folks who have died from COVID you will find that the overwhelming majority were in the 50+ age. If it were just a matter of holding out, then we would not have over a half a million deaths in our country. CDC has looked at the data and made recommendations based on the data.

                              https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

                              https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...th-by-age.html

                              I don't think teachers should be forced to go back into the class room without vaccine. Especially since I know some teachers that have underlying medical conditions. That is another thing that makes me go, "Huh?" Opening up the entire group without regard to underlying medical conditions. I know someone who has had an organ transplant who had to compete for a vaccine slot with everyone else in the (teacher) group that may not have an underlying condition. How does that make any sense?

                              Comment


                                #45
                                Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post
                                I'm annoyed with the rollout where I am (WA). Sorry but I think there were huge mistakes made. First they should have put teachers ahead of age. They wanted schools open? Then vaccinate the teachers and don't expect them to be happy to work otherwise. Sorry but Inslee failed. He did the opposite of oregon which prioritized teachers and then moved to elderly. And yes grocery store workers should have been earlier. I have no qualms waiting for my spot, but heck I don't blame teachers for not going back. I blame the system for expecting them to wait their turn when they should have been moved to the top of the line. They were approved March 3rd, why weren't they in january? They did everyone in nursing homes which is fine but the rest of the elderly? Stay home for another month and let the teachers have gotten vaccinated and grocery clerks. They'd have been safer with those people who work and are out getting vaccinated than old people staying at home!

                                Next up yes I'm annoyed by people who cut the line and lie about it. It was ridiculous I was texting with a friend who wanted to travel for spring break so she and her husband and 5 other families drove to a mass vaccination site that she claimed "open" up to everyone and just vaccinated everyone. You didn't have to be in the tiers. She sent me the website and right there it said tiers 1a, 1b1, 1b2. But people want to cut the line at least i guess they are vaccinated. But really does 2 months really end it all? If they could get the vaccine may 1st?
                                Agreed that not prioritizing teachers was a flub on Inslee's part. But I think overall, whether people like it or not, he's taken a very methodical approach to the pandemic. Washington was never New York in terms of being overwhelmed, and Washington was never one of the do-nothing states that let cases and death counts go unchecked.

                                I will say that I do not understand many pieces of the rollout here. I noted above, which I still think is true, the important part is "shots in arms" regardless of eligibility. I've played with the WA DOH eligibility tool as well as looked into what it takes to get an appointment. Lumen/Last-Centurylink field was set up to be a mass vaccination site but the priority is the under-served. Some other sites will not let you get an appointment based on your zip code, within the same county! There is the new mass-vaccination site in Yakima, which I believe was set up to serve the communities of laborers and agricultural workers in the basin, and there are hundreds of appointments available in the next few days -- the demand does not appear to be there. If that is the case, then relax eligibility.

                                I think the key piece here is...we really haven't done this in modern times. There will be lessons learned for sure, but for now, this is as good as it gets.

                                The next big wave is coming March 31st which is basically anyone with a pre-existing health condition...yay! I am anticipating difficulty getting an appointment right away as this is going to be a huge group.

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