Fiverr Is My Newest Pick

[LivingAlmostLarge]

SHOP, AMD and Fiverr blew out earnings, so I expect an average movement of upward momentum. Noticed I said average as there will be days with pull backs. I don't have a crystal ball so I have no idea.

My rule of thumb is selling here and there when these growth companies start paying out dividends higher than 0.5%. Or I may just take the dividend and live off them. I don't know as I see SHOP doubling, TSLA may x 5, AMD X3, and Fiverr x15 as their max potential.

Shop investment : 15k, now worth 230k
TSLA investment: 230k, now worth 1.2 million
AMD investment: 160k, now worth 780k
Fiverr investment : 120k, now worth 264k

Hats off. SHOP is the craziest one. Having talked with a friend who bought at $1/share and is still holding it. Amazingly. TSLA, AMD, and Fiverr I get. But Shop I always wondered if Amzn would crush them. But amzn profits come at the expense of AWS not their retail. So I am thinking more that SHOP does stand a better chance of getting I think bigger market share of ecommerce. Especially with amazon "basic" cutting into 3rd party sales with amazon using the data from their website to try to crush 3rd party sellers. If i were a seller i would flee.

[jeffmem]

Singuy, do you think today's drop is a chance to buy more shares even at a high price? For me it is still at about $50 above my original buying price...

[disneysteve]

Singuy, do you think today's drop is a chance to buy more shares even at a high price? For me it is still at about $50 above my original buying price...

I just saw that drop but don’t see any news to explain it. What happened?

[jeffmem]

disney, it seems recovering, I did not buy more yet, as I was trying to figure it out also.

This is all I can find. Fiverr International Initiated at Neutral by MKM Partners and it has been downgraded also, but the drop was very steep...

[Singuy]

Fiverr is a low market cap stock and will see drop and rises 5-10% whenever it wants. I can't predict short term price action but since they knocked earnings out of the park, I did buy more at 106-109.
Overall growth stocks are being punished today probably from profit takers riding on the tail or Tesla, zm, and apple rise this week.

[jeffmem]

I was thinking about buying around the 110 mark, but it has now come up from that. And indeed overbought tech stocks are getting bashed today. I sold most of TSLA yesterday as I truly believe it is going to come crashing down soon because there is nothing to back this current price and when it falls, it will be a blood bath. I may buy again when it returns to normalacy. ZM I had wanted to get in around 409-411 but didn't happen, and I am not sure if the current price is reasonable or not. Apple is taking a beating as well, but it will bounce back before the launch, after the launch, I may sell it all.

[Singuy]

Good luck determining what normal is for Tesla. I have been in the stock for 2 years and I have zero clue what that is.

[jeffmem]

LOL! Indeed you are right. But your price is much lower than anyone can get now. So I won't buy again until there is a significant decrease.

[JBinKC]

Ironically, I also added 100 shs today in the 107s so I am holding 500 shares now at a 30K cost.

[~bs]

I was thinking about buying around the 110 mark, but it has now come up from that. And indeed overbought tech stocks are getting bashed today. I sold most of TSLA yesterday as I truly believe it is going to come crashing down soon because there is nothing to back this current price and when it falls, it will be a blood bath. I may buy again when it returns to normalacy. ZM I had wanted to get in around 409-411 but didn't happen, and I am not sure if the current price is reasonable or not. Apple is taking a beating as well, but it will bounce back before the launch, after the launch, I may sell it all.

Not sure if there is a "normal" for stocks like tesla, amazon, apple, etc. They're considered industry disrupters, and if successful, gain market share at a rate far beyond what's considered "normal". I remember at one time looking at amazon at $100 and thinking how expensive it was at the time given its sky high PE ratio. Look at it now.

[jeffmem]

I was able to pick up more shares of FVRR between 106-110 over the last few days. I bought another 90 shares to the 50 I already had for a total of 140 shares. But my average went from $60/sh to $92/sh. I have 13k invested in it. Singuy, IF FVRR performs the way you believe it will, what stock price are we looking at over the next 5-10 years? From one of your posts, it would appear that you expect the price to triple from now if my math is right, so that would put it at around $300/hr after about 5 years? If so that puts my profit at around 30k. Your aim is 1M, I would love to get there, but I don't have so much cash to put in one company. If at 140 shares it gets me to 100,000 I think I would be rather happy as my retirement goal is at least 1M USD, and I am already 45 years old... To get 100,000 at 140 shares the stock price would need to exceed 700.... I'm not confident of that at this moment. 300, I can see.. It appears I need to buy at least another 10k in...

As for Apple and Tesla, with this market fall, I am not sure I really trust to get back in either one of them. But Tesla's battery announcement should be coming soon, it might go back up, I just fear that getting in for long term at this price with Tesla is very risky. Apple, after this fall, I feel a good value to buy back in may be around $70... haha. I bought Amazon at 1300, at that time I only bought 2 shares, it's now earned me nearly 4k before the panic sell the last few days. I sincerely wish I had purchased more of it a few years ago, but cash was limited.

[Singuy]

I was able to pick up more shares of FVRR between 106-110 over the last few days. I bought another 90 shares to the 50 I already had for a total of 140 shares. But my average went from $60/sh to $92/sh. I have 13k invested in it. Singuy, IF FVRR performs the way you believe it will, what stock price are we looking at over the next 5-10 years? From one of your posts, it would appear that you expect the price to triple from now if my math is right, so that would put it at around $300/hr after about 5 years? If so that puts my profit at around 30k. Your aim is 1M, I would love to get there, but I don't have so much cash to put in one company. If at 140 shares it gets me to 100,000 I think I would be rather happy as my retirement goal is at least 1M USD, and I am already 45 years old... To get 100,000 at 140 shares the stock price would need to exceed 700.... I'm not confident of that at this moment. 300, I can see.. It appears I need to buy at least another 10k in...

As for Apple and Tesla, with this market fall, I am not sure I really trust to get back in either one of them. But Tesla's battery announcement should be coming soon, it might go back up, I just fear that getting in for long term at this price with Tesla is very risky. Apple, after this fall, I feel a good value to buy back in may be around $70... haha. I bought Amazon at 1300, at that time I only bought 2 shares, it's now earned me nearly 4k before the panic sell the last few days. I sincerely wish I had purchased more of it a few years ago, but cash was limited.

So the total addressable world wide market for freelancer economy is 1.5 trillion from 2014. The break down for North America, which accounts for 50% of TAM is as follows

Technology jobs $486 million
Admin Support - $110 million
Writing and translation - $109 million
Design & Multimedia - $83 million
Mobile - $71 million
Sales and Marketing - $49 million
Finance and Legal - $33 million

Currently Fiverr's yearly revenue is about 200 million. It's a company based out of Israel and just recently opened up in a few countries including the U.S which is mainly where growth is being expanded. So if Fiverr can capture just 1% in the next 3 years of the Tam, that's a revenue of 1.5 billion, which would x5 the stock easy as margins are high and the market is forward looking.

Now this gig economy was pre covid and from 2014. Also with a platform like Fiverr, you can unleash more TAM as there are new possibilities available to the world. Think how there were way less overall TAM in the taxi business or the hospitality business until Arbnb and Uber changed that, and added way more to the economy.

So if Fiverr becomes the dominant freelancing platform, then the sky is the limit and can even reach 100-300 billion dollar market cap. Which can 30-60x current share price.

But right now it'll be nice if it hits 1% of 2014 TAM which I think is a shoe in.

[jeffmem]

So the total addressable world wide market for freelancer economy is 1.5 trillion from 2014. The break down for North America, which accounts for 50% of TAM is as follows

Technology jobs $486 million
Admin Support - $110 million
Writing and translation - $109 million
Design & Multimedia - $83 million
Mobile - $71 million
Sales and Marketing - $49 million
Finance and Legal - $33 million

Currently Fiverr's yearly revenue is about 200 million. It's a company based out of Israel and just recently opened up in a few countries including the U.S which is mainly where growth is being expanded. So if Fiverr can capture just 1% in the next 3 years of the Tam, that's a revenue of 1.5 billion, which would x5 the stock easy as margins are high and the market is forward looking.

Now this gig economy was pre covid and from 2014. Also with a platform like Fiverr, you can unleash more TAM as there are new possibilities available to the world. Think how there were way less overall TAM in the taxi business or the hospitality business until Arbnb and Uber changed that, and added way more to the economy.

So if Fiverr becomes the dominant freelancing platform, then the sky is the limit and can even reach 100-300 billion dollar market cap. Which can 30-60x current share price.

But right now it'll be nice if it hits 1% of 2014 TAM which I think is a shoe in.

Thank you for this. I am amazed at your ability to see through these things. You have quite a bit of knowledge. I will definitely be putting more money in this company. I have used their website and have used services for designing websites and things like this, I am pleased, and am also thrilled to see them adding more services and attracting more service providers as well as customers. I also believe their revenue will increase over time, and as you say IF they can become the dominate platform that will be huge. I know they are available in a number of countries right now and want to expand.

[~bs]

Thank you for this. I am amazed at your ability to see through these things. You have quite a bit of knowledge. I will definitely be putting more money in this company. I have used their website and have used services for designing websites and things like this, I am pleased, and am also thrilled to see them adding more services and attracting more service providers as well as customers. I also believe their revenue will increase over time, and as you say IF they can become the dominate platform that will be huge. I know they are available in a number of countries right now and want to expand.

Or if larger companies like google, amazon, msft sees the potential in the platform and future growth, it becomes a buyout candidate.

[Singuy]

Or if larger companies like google, amazon, msft sees the potential in the platform and future growth, it becomes a buyout candidate.

Possibility but I never look forward to buy outs as it disrupt my future guidance for the stock.