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    #91
    People playing options has nothing to do with bubbles. It's a lotto ticket aimed to strike it rich with over 80% the possibility of losing it all. The odds are in the favor of the option sellers, while the buyers will most likely lose every cent they invest. However due to the pandemic, everyone is playing stocks due to the flash crash+ recovery. Lots of people bought the dip and made out big. However the market is not the dot com bubble even though everyone loves to allude to it.

    1. Fed is pumping liquidity into the market.
    2. Treasure yield during the dot com bubble was 6%, currently we are sitting at 0.67%
    3. The P/E ratio of the entire market is at 28.8, while during the dot com bubble we were sitting at 44.

    So all sign points to a continue bull market where the only down side risk is if you are conservative with your money. When interest rate is essentially zero, and bond rate is near zero, you will 100% lose if you stay cash heavy vs going S&P or something. Many of you guys have witnessed this already. Hell the biggest loser of 2020 is probably Warren Buffet. Can't believe he was fearful when everyone was fearful..how the mighty have fallen.

    Go back and read all my post prior to the covid crash. I have advocated that the market is fine and just because it's due for some kind of year long market crash doesn't mean it'll happen. So even an economic standstill, a looming recession and a humanitarian crisis of the highest magnitude didn't prevent the market from hitting all time highs in 2020.

    https://ofdollarsanddata.com/no-this...ot-com-bubble/
    Last edited by Singuy; 12-24-2020, 10:38 PM.

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      #92
      Originally posted by Singuy View Post
      So all sign points to a continue bull market where the only down side risk is if you are conservative with your money. When interest rate is essentially zero, and bond rate is near zero, you will 100% lose if you stay cash heavy vs going S&P or something. Many of you guys have witnessed this already.
      Oh, I agree that today's situation is very different than the dot com bubble. Then, people were throwing stupid money at companies with little more than a catchy domain name. They had zero profits and a highly questionable business plan. Today, the companies attracting attention and investors are actually successful and profitable.

      The P/E ratio of the entire market is at 28.8, while during the dot com bubble we were sitting at 44.
      The S&P 500 is at 37. The median is 14-15. So things are pricey by historical standards. But that doesn't mean it's going to crash tomorrow. As you said, what are your alternatives? A money market paying 0.6%?
      Steve

      * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
      * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
      * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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        #93
        Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

        Oh, I agree that today's situation is very different than the dot com bubble. Then, people were throwing stupid money at companies with little more than a catchy domain name. They had zero profits and a highly questionable business plan. Today, the companies attracting attention and investors are actually successful and profitable.


        The S&P 500 is at 37. The median is 14-15. So things are pricey by historical standards. But that doesn't mean it's going to crash tomorrow. As you said, what are your alternatives? A money market paying 0.6%?
        People are throwing stupid money on companies that went IPO via Spacs. There are way too much stupid money chasing the next Tesla or space tourism. Look at Nano Dimensions. It recently became very bullish because some yolo folks online pumping the stock. The 1 year chart looks good until you look at the 5 year chart. Apparently it's a company that was caught doing money laundering and also with it's revenue dropping 80% yoy. No one seems to care that this company that once made 7 million a quarter is now making 450k/quarter. Yet stock has been shooting up due to ..reasons. ....

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          #94
          One side of my brain wants to sell and get off the roller coaster while the other side wants to buy on every substantial dip. Heck, it was up nearly $16 today. I'm sure somebody profited on that.
          Steve

          * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
          * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
          * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

          Comment


            #95
            I think the SP is up close to the top of the dot.com bubble but feds are pumping liquidity. I don't know when it will resume real numbers.
            LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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              #96
              We've got some room to run (Shiller PE ratio):



              And a lot of room to crash. I think a 25% price correction down to 26 PE is likely in the next 2 years. That's not too bad. Correcting back to 16 PE would be a 50% drop in equity prices. Ouch but not the end of the world. Once the economy fully opens up again, the E part of PE should pick up again and give some more room for prices to go up more.

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                #97
                I think we have a lot of room to run. It's disconnected and I can't help but keep waiting to buy but then just buying anyway.
                LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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                  #98
                  Just putting what dot com bubble was in perspective.

                  Yahoos revenue in 1999 was 580 million, market cap hit 116 billion

                  Fiverr annualized revenue is 220 million, with a market cap of 8 billion.

                  I'll let you know when we are in bubble territory from the small country I have purchased with my fiverr stock money.

                  https://airtreeventures.medium.com/y...e-ceaa58f5d536

                  Comment


                    #99
                    Originally posted by Singuy View Post
                    Just putting what dot com bubble was in perspective.

                    Yahoos revenue in 1999 was 580 million, market cap hit 116 billion

                    Fiverr annualized revenue is 220 million, with a market cap of 8 billion.

                    I'll let you know when we are in bubble territory from the small country I have purchased with my fiverr stock money.

                    https://airtreeventures.medium.com/y...e-ceaa58f5d536
                    Are you still buying fvrr? Or any other stock? Do you think the market has a lot of room to run?
                    LivingAlmostLarge Blog

                    Comment


                      I do:

                      https://advisors.vanguard.com/e-asse...S-equities.png Click image for larger version

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                        man.... this FVRR just doesn't quit. I'm later to the party than some, and am still at a healthy 300% gain in my taxable account on this within a year.

                        Singuy , will be following your ques on this for if/when the bubble is gone. Hopefully you'll be gracious enough to invite us to your Singuy-Topia Country one day. (hopefully the drinks are moderately prices & you have relaxed cannabis laws there).

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by amarowsky View Post
                          man.... this FVRR just doesn't quit. I'm later to the party than some, and am still at a healthy 300% gain in my taxable account on this within a year.

                          Singuy , will be following your ques on this for if/when the bubble is gone. Hopefully you'll be gracious enough to invite us to your Singuy-Topia Country one day. (hopefully the drinks are moderately prices & you have relaxed cannabis laws there).
                          I think people are just not comfortable with stocks tripling or doubling within a short amount of time. In the grand scheme of things, a doubling in stock or tripling is really nothing. There are two fundamental questions you need to ask about the company you are holding.

                          1. Is it a disruptor in the space it occupies?
                          2. Is the company useful to society, making life easier, not harder.

                          Answer those two questions and just wait to become a gizillionaire.

                          If you invested just $5000 dollars in microsoft in 1986, you will have about 17 million dollars today...and this is post dot com bubble, 911, and financial crisis. So sit back and relax. Stop timing the market, and stop living in fear. Just let a good thing ride as these companies intertwine into the fabric of our lives.

                          If You Invested $5,000 in Microsoft's IPO, This Is How Much Money You'd Have Now (fool.com)

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post

                            Are you still buying fvrr? Or any other stock? Do you think the market has a lot of room to run?
                            I am not buying much of anything currently as the amount of money I put into anything no longer matters. Not selling is the current bullish move I am making. My trick was always to front run as much as possible and just let it do it's thing.

                            And as for the market, plenty of room to run until there's an alternative to equities.
                            As for any of the companies I have a stake in, plenty of room for them to run as well.

                            Comment


                              down morning for FVRR. some analysts are advertising to sell some "covid related remote" companies.

                              Currently down ~13% to $231. Singuy , in your opinion, is this a decent opportunity to buy a few more shares on this Significant DIP? Or just hold territory?
                              Last edited by amarowsky; 01-19-2021, 07:07 AM. Reason: lol put in SPOT for some reason, but meant FVRR. (coffee is just kicking in)

                              Comment


                                I'm suddenly hating UBS for some very "known" reason. I hate banks in general and analysts are just out for themselves. Very irritating this morning, but I know it will come back, but looking at that huge negative in my portfolio this morning is kinda sad. But such as life.

                                The last time I bought on a dip it went back to 136, with my avg now at 99 I hesitate to buy more even with this dip, the dip could last a bit longer I guess until the UBS news fades away.

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