Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Fiverr Is My Newest Pick

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Fiverr Is My Newest Pick

    Guys, some update. People here know that I pitched AMD when it was 12-14 dollars a share. I pitched Tesla when it was between 180-350 dollars a share. My latest pick is Fiverr (FVRR) and I have pitched this in another thread when the stock price was 30 dollars.

    Currently the company is at a 1.5 billion dollar valuation after their latest earnings report. Share price prior to earnings skyrocked 30% and then jumped even higher post earnings because they RAISED GUIDANCE despite of the pandemic. I have noted that Fiverr have gained 10 million new engagements to their website from March -> April. Their nearest competitor (upwork) also gained but at a much smaller pace.

    Fiverr currently has 50 million/month engagements on their website, over 10 million downloads of their app from all platforms, and it's guided to grow 35%+ for the forseeable future. As benchmarks, Etsy has over 200million engagements per month while Ebay has over 700 million engagements per month.

    The number of retail investors who own this stock is very SMALL. Robinhood, which is mainly used by millenials, tell you how many people in their entire database owns the stock. Fiverr is sitting at over 3k users. As for comparison, over 200k users own Tsla and over 200k users own AMD shares, which are the most popular millenial stocks. This tells me that the majority of millenials, those who use Fiverr, haven't even considered the stock as an investment(probably because company IPOed only a year ago).

    The company is still losing money, so there's that risk. But at this rate of growth with such a small valuation, it can very easily be Etsy in a year or two(which means 3x your money) and could be on its way to Ebay (30x your money). This is a buy and hold stock. Do expect -10% in a given day because that's just how small cap companies with high volitality works. So far Fiverr, like my other picks are extremely resistant to this pandemic and I have already fully recovered pre crash. Currently I am up about 110% year to date, and 300% since I started investing 3 years ago. Still have all my shares of AMD and Tesla, and now Fiverr.

    Disclaimer, I have about 55k in Fiverr stock, and have only started accumulating 3 weeks ago. This is not advice and you should invest according to your risk tolerance.
    Last edited by Singuy; 05-08-2020, 11:56 AM.

    #2
    You certainly know the new economy better than me and I on occasion buy a stock on a concept but I generally specialize in commodities. The only tech stock I currently own is EQIX that I accumulated two decades ago but it has been sold down but it is still a high 6 figure holding for me . My question why is FVRR better than the platform on Linkedin or UPWK for instance.

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by JBinKC View Post
      You certainly know the new economy better than me and I on occasion buy a stock on a concept but I generally specialize in commodities. The only tech stock I currently own is EQIX that I accumulated two decades ago but it has been sold down but it is still a high 6 figure holding for me . My question why is FVRR better than the platform on Linkedin or UPWK for instance.
      I don't think LinkedIn is comparable to Fiverr. It's probably more comparable to say Indeed.com. To me it's Indeed.com + FB crammed into one.

      UPWK is Fiverr's direct competitor. Fiverr's website looks cleaner, modern, and just easier to navigate. The thing that matters with these online merchant type ecommerce (such as Etsy or Ebay) is the traffic engagement from both clients and sellers. The market leader is the one that will take the momentum and run with it while the 2nd best will eventually be left behind. Just like B&M stores, the more unique shops there are, the more foot traffic, which brings in more unique shops, which brings in more foot traffic. Always look for positive feedback loops when it comes to investing in winners. The difference is online ecommerce can have unlimited amount of unique shops and unlimited amount of foot traffic. Eventually it'll be so big that something like Amazon.com becomes a search engine for goods(ever find yourself thinking up something that should exist and just typing it into amazon.com?).

      So Fiverr is the market leader in freelancing type ecommerce. Its foot traffic is 50 million/month, up from 41 million the month prior. UpWK is currently sitting at half the foot traffic while the rest are way way below. UpWK is the only real competitor and based on the stock and foot traffic, it is just getting destroyed by Fiverr's momentum. Fiverr's one month gain in foot traffic is the amount Upwk gained in a year. That's how much it crushed.
      Last edited by Singuy; 05-08-2020, 02:07 PM.

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by Singuy View Post
        Guys, some update. People here know that I pitched AMD when it was 12-14 dollars a share. I pitched Tesla when it was between 180-350 dollars a share. My latest pick is Fiverr (FVRR) and I have pitched this in another thread when the stock price was 30 dollars.

        Currently the company is at a 1.5 billion dollar valuation after their latest earnings report. Share price prior to earnings skyrocked 30% and then jumped even higher post earnings because they RAISED GUIDANCE despite of the pandemic. I have noted that Fiverr have gained 10 million new engagements to their website from March -> April. Their nearest competitor (upwork) also gained but at a much smaller pace.

        Fiverr currently has 50 million/month engagements on their website, over 10 million downloads of their app from all platforms, and it's guided to grow 35%+ for the forseeable future. As benchmarks, Etsy has over 200million engagements per month while Ebay has over 700 million engagements per month.

        The number of retail investors who own this stock is very SMALL. Robinhood, which is mainly used by millenials, tell you how many people in their entire database owns the stock. Fiverr is sitting at over 3k users. As for comparison, over 200k users own Tsla and over 200k users own AMD shares, which are the most popular millenial stocks. This tells me that the majority of millenials, those who use Fiverr, haven't even considered the stock as an investment(probably because company IPOed only a year ago).

        The company is still losing money, so there's that risk. But at this rate of growth with such a small valuation, it can very easily be Etsy in a year or two(which means 3x your money) and could be on its way to Ebay (30x your money). This is a buy and hold stock. Do expect -10% in a given day because that's just how small cap companies with high volitality works. So far Fiverr, like my other picks are extremely resistant to this pandemic and I have already fully recovered pre crash. Currently I am up about 110% year to date, and 300% since I started investing 3 years ago. Still have all my shares of AMD and Tesla, and now Fiverr.

        Disclaimer, I have about 55k in Fiverr stock, and have only started accumulating 3 weeks ago. This is not advice and you should invest according to your risk tolerance.
        Thanks, Singguy! You still bullish on AMD? Any other stocks? I notice & agree with your disclaimer!

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Scallywag View Post

          Thanks, Singguy! You still bullish on AMD? Any other stocks? I notice & agree with your disclaimer!
          Yes AMD will eventually hit a turning point and it's slowly getting there. They come out stronger year after year while Intel is still struggling with manufacturing process. TSMC is on pace to 5nm by next year and 3mn by 2023. Intel may have something out by 2021 or 2022? AMD's architecture is training wheels for their ultimate end goal, which is 3d stacking with lego like silicon. They will unleash an amazing amount of performance as this increases memory bandwidth not by 2x or 3x, but by an order of magnitude. This is the end goal for anyone working on silicone and from where I am standing, AMD has the processing lead and experience to get there first. This is not speculation btw, this was in their investor day's presentation but we all knew about it years prior. The Zen 2 chiplet design and development of HBM already puts them as the #1 expert in this department. I am thinking by 3nm, AMD will have 3d stacking processors+GPUs all on one SOC that will blow minds and may even end Nvidia's domination.

          So yes, Bullish on AMD, 3x - 5x gain is my prediction in 3 years.

          Bullish on Tesla, 3-5x gain in 5 years. Wonder why their stock shot up to almost 900 dollars even though their factory is shut down? The margins they had blew minds. Every wall street analyst upped their price target for Tesla by 23% on average. No one have ever seen a company that can increase margins that fast during a production ramp AND economic shut down. It was the crazy magic I explained before and everyone is starting to take Elon/Tesla very seriously.

          Fiverr is a 10x gain in about 2-3 years, and has the highest probability to hit 50x gains out of all my stock picks. The valuation at 1.5 billion in a company that already has 10s of million of users with a 89% margin is laughable and I can't get enough of how crazy of a find this is. I mean no one is buying this stock, and barely anyone have heard of this company. At a rate of adding 10 million users a month, I think people are starting to pay attention.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Singuy View Post
            Fiverr is a 10x gain in about 2-3 years,
            It's already gone from 21 in March to 48 now. Anybody who jumped on that has done really well.
            Steve

            * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
            * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
            * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

              It's already gone from 21 in March to 48 now. Anybody who jumped on that has done really well.
              That's nothing in software based growth stocks. The margins are ridiculous compared to any other sector in the industry so the multiples market give to software based companies are also ridiculous. There are really very few number of online websites of value you know about that has a valuation of 1-2 billion. They are all 10 billion dollar plus. Look at Wayfair, losing boat ton of money with a valuation of 18 billion dollars. Zoom is at 43 billion, teledoc, 13 billion. Do I see Fiverr to be more important than Etsy and Wayfair combined as a good for society? Abso-freakenlutly. Especially when there are so many people out of a job and everything is moving into a digital landscape? When I saw Fiverr at 980 million as the valuation I almost fell off my chair. That's the lowest valuation I have ever seen from a website I have heard of.

              Comment


                #8
                Thanks Singuy I agree with you FVRR given time if they can snuff out competition will easily be a 10 + bagger from here. I think it is the right platform for the trend of the gig economy. EQIX is a 200 bagger over the last 18 years based on limited amount of competitors and the secular bull market from the persistent increase of internet traffic. Granted I wish I knew about the company earlier and was targeting this as a potential investment when the federal reserve initially pumped its cash into the system. I am not as hip on the tech sector as I used to be.

                Comment


                  #9
                  i snagged 100 shares in joint taxable and roth ira of FVRR as a long term play. Only $5k. But this is a hold.
                  LivingAlmostLarge Blog

                  Comment


                    #10
                    This thread aged well

                    So here's something extremely surprising.

                    Fiverr's android app download just surpassed 10+ million. It was at 5+ million just a few weeks ago(not saying download doubled because we don't know if it was at 9.9 million a few weeks ago or at 5 million a few weeks ago). They are advertising hardcore on youtube that's for sure.

                    The nearest competitor upwork is still stuck at 1 million + download.

                    The interesting thing is both companies have similar market caps! So either one is very over valued or one is very undervalued. What I know is, something is not priced correctly here. Of course I am betting on Fvrr being undervalued

                    Anyways, conviction is strong, Fvrr account hit 6 figures. I see a doubling in the near future. Balls to the walls!

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Thank you very much for your input here especially for those members who are less tech savvy.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        interesting. I don't know about doubling. Depends on where the market goes overall.
                        LivingAlmostLarge Blog

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post
                          interesting. I don't know about doubling. Depends on where the market goes overall.
                          Has already doubled since I wrote about it here just a month ago. Always look at market caps. 4 billion valuation for this stock is probably correct but growth is exploding thanks to COvid. At 1 billion when I wrote about this stock, the valuation was laughable and it's a unicorn find.
                          ​​​

                          Comment


                            #14
                            I didnt even do any research. just limped in with $1000 on the original post. lol Think my buy price was around $50.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              me too bought at $50 so we'll see.
                              LivingAlmostLarge Blog

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X