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    #31
    when did you buy shop? I didn't buy it a long time ago dang. I have friends retiring from shop. that one they bought at $1
    LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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      #32
      Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post
      when did you buy shop? I didn't buy it a long time ago dang. I have friends retiring from shop. that one they bought at $1
      Bought only 210 shares at around 70 bucks. I didn't do any research on the company(heard maybe one conference call after the past 3 years) so my conviction was never strong. Perhaps I should have spent more time on SHOP as it is my first 10+ bagger...lol. The best performing child gets no love so they say.

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        #33
        Originally posted by jeffmem View Post

        I see. There are a lot of people who short who try to make news and use scare tactics to get you to sell because they don't want to be left holding the bag.

        I am not sure how AMD is going to continue to grow, Intel is only down for about a year and will start to go up again, what happened to Intel recently, outside of Apple, has happened before, and it will only take them about a year to get their stuff together again. They are not out of the game. Fiverr definitely seems to be a winner and really appreciate your insight and conversation. It would be very nice someday to buy enough shares to make my first million, but the confidence to buy so many shares will be my hurdle...
        AMD is actually poised to be one of the biggest chip makers of the 2020s. In their entire existence, they had process nodes being 1 generation behind Intel. They relied on architecture to be competitive.

        The most recent conference call completely flipped the script. Intel is now 3 years behind TSMC and the gap is widening. Ice lake 10nm CPUs for datacenters that are "launching" by year end is a huge cluster F as its clock speed is abysmal. It is not even competitive vs their current generation CPUs which is already 1/2 the speed of AMD's. AMD Milan is on track, and 5nm is on track. Intel's CEO is contemplating outsource fabrication but they are will have a hard time getting wafers from TSMC as AMD has already locked them out. A recent Taiwanese news report just stated that AMD will DOUBLE the wafer capacity in 2021 from TSMC and become the largest partner using their chips, beating out Apple for the first time. This means revenue will DOUBLE in 2021 as AMD sees a path for this demand due to Intel's fumble.

        Intel's fumble is so bad that datacenters are being forced to validate PCI Gen 4 on AMD, the first time ever where a new generation of PCI is validated on AMD. This is a huge deal as once validation is complete, they will just run with it and will see no advantages switching to Intel.

        The gigantic share price drop of Intel is not a small set back. It is a turning point in which there's no roadmap for Intel capable of ever catching up. Many Fabs died due to not able to succeed in developing the next node, and looks like Intel has hit that roadblock as TSMC becomes the most advanced node in the world. I am about 95% confident AMD's share price will hit 200 dollars within 5 years as everything I said above is NOT even AMD's master plan. AMD's true master plan is scary for not only Intel, but Nvidia and ARM.
        Last edited by Singuy; 08-03-2020, 01:09 PM.

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          #34
          Guess I should be buying more AMD. I bought some but i haven't really gone all in. Shop. Wowza. Insane the trajectory. I thought they were expensive at $300 and obviously you did too or else you'd have bought more because man have they dusted every other stock and some people are saying they are going to burn amazon. I'm curious about how that will play out.
          LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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            #35
            Thanks for the advice. Bought 5er at 50, now sitting at $100.

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              #36
              Fiverr reported earnings, achieved profitably and grew 82%. Raise guide to be profitable for the rest of 2020. I hope those who bought is disgusted by the knock out earning and enjoy the ride to $200

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                #37
                Singuy I have to give you credit of your uncanny abilities in the technology sector. What I find most impressive is your AMD call in the crappy commoditized space known as semiconductors which I equate similar to a depreciating commodity without a daily known price of their products to monitor. I again thank you for your contributions here mainly to diversify my portfolio given I have minimal tech exposure.

                My portfolio is usually overweight commodities because that is my area of competence and it requires a very different investing approach.

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                  #38
                  As well as you've done, I can guarantee you that if I decide to follow any of your suggestions, the stock will tank for sure. So I promise to save you from that fate.
                  Steve

                  * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                  * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                  * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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                    #39
                    Originally posted by JBinKC View Post
                    Singuy I have to give you credit of your uncanny abilities in the technology sector. What I find most impressive is your AMD call in the crappy commoditized space known as semiconductors which I equate similar to a depreciating commodity without a daily known price of their products to monitor. I again thank you for your contributions here mainly to diversify my portfolio given I have minimal tech exposure.

                    My portfolio is usually overweight commodities because that is my area of competence and it requires a very different investing approach.
                    Thanks.

                    Semiconductor was a race to the bottom type business with margins being lower and lower. Look at MU and western digital, just terrible margins as things become cheaper and cheaper.

                    However what flipped the script is the explosion of the thirst for exoscale servers to power the giant megacaps. The return on their investment to support their growth makes purchasing expensive hardware from Intel, AMD, and Nvidia a no brainier. That's where the margins are so basically cutting edge hardware are now tied to trillion dollars companies. Back in the days, Nvidia was worth peanuts when their graphics card were only used for gamers. Then their value cap exploded due to datacenter use.

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                      #40
                      Your knowledge of technology in general is phenomenal as I didn't know about that with regard to NVDA 's growth was attributable to data center applications. During the tech bubble of the 90s components were the rage but I realized that they were going to eventually become commoditized but unfortunately that was the impetus why I sold AAPL way too early in my portfolio. The only tech holdout I have owned for 2 decades is a reduced position in EQIX. Its certainly nice to know the amount of knowledge you hold in the tech sector. Its a huge asset to have IMO.

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                        #41
                        Do you think there will be a pull back in any of the stocks you are holding, AMD, TSLA, SHOP, FVRR? How much have you invested in each and what's it worth? When do you see yourself selling?
                        LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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                          #42
                          Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post
                          Do you think there will be a pull back in any of the stocks you are holding, AMD, TSLA, SHOP, FVRR? How much have you invested in each and what's it worth? When do you see yourself selling?
                          SHOP, AMD and Fiverr blew out earnings, so I expect an average movement of upward momentum. Noticed I said average as there will be days with pull backs. I don't have a crystal ball so I have no idea.

                          My rule of thumb is selling here and there when these growth companies start paying out dividends higher than 0.5%. Or I may just take the dividend and live off them. I don't know as I see SHOP doubling, TSLA may x 5, AMD X3, and Fiverr x15 as their max potential.

                          Shop investment : 15k, now worth 230k
                          TSLA investment: 230k, now worth 1.2 million
                          AMD investment: 160k, now worth 780k
                          Fiverr investment : 120k, now worth 264k

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                            #43
                            Originally posted by Singuy View Post

                            Shop investment : 15k, now worth 230k
                            TSLA investment: 230k, now worth 1.2 million
                            AMD investment: 160k, now worth 780k
                            Fiverr investment : 120k, now worth 264k
                            Singuy, my hat is off to you. There are many, many professional investors who would like to do that well.
                            james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                            202.468.6043

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                              #44
                              Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post

                              Singuy, my hat is off to you. There are many, many professional investors who would like to do that well.
                              Thanks, I joke to some of my friends that I should start my own ETF.

                              I actually am a little shocked at analyst and investors not seeing the forest from the trees. They fixate on the dumbest noise and just ignore big flashing signal.

                              Give you a good example.

                              Elon on the conference call said " the biggest problem with our cars is that it's still not as affordable as I like them to be, as it is important for the transition to sustainable energy. This annoys me the most, and it's that our cars are not yet affordable for the masses".

                              This is signal.

                              When Tesla drops price and every analyst and cautious investor thinks the drop in demand is the cause, that is made up noise.

                              My job is to listen to the signal and not to the noise. It's not very difficult but I guess if you didn't hear Elon say it on a conference call since no one wants to write a headline about it, you will always attribute a price drop to no demand/sinking ship. This is why every time someone talks to me about how Tesla is this or that, you can instantly pick up they have a huge gap of knowledge as it's not easy to find all the signal from all the BS noise everyone generates from assumptions.

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                                #45
                                Originally posted by Singuy View Post

                                Thanks, I joke to some of my friends that I should start my own ETF.

                                I actually am a little shocked at analyst and investors not seeing the forest from the trees. They fixate on the dumbest noise and just ignore big flashing signal.

                                Give you a good example.

                                Elon on the conference call said " the biggest problem with our cars is that it's still not as affordable as I like them to be, as it is important for the transition to sustainable energy. This annoys me the most, and it's that our cars are not yet affordable for the masses".

                                This is signal.

                                When Tesla drops price and every analyst and cautious investor thinks the drop in demand is the cause, that is made up noise.

                                My job is to listen to the signal and not to the noise. It's not very difficult but I guess if you didn't hear Elon say it on a conference call since no one wants to write a headline about it, you will always attribute a price drop to no demand/sinking ship. This is why every time someone talks to me about how Tesla is this or that, you can instantly pick up they have a huge gap of knowledge as it's not easy to find all the signal from all the BS noise everyone generates from assumptions.
                                What I'm hearing Singuy is a) you do the research and b) you pay attention.
                                james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                                202.468.6043

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