Anybody buying on this downturn?

[disneysteve]

I think the cruise lines are going to have a more protracted recovery than the airlines, but it's getting awfully tempting to jump in. Royal Caribbean is down from $117 last month to $43 currently.

[disneysteve]

"Buy on rumor, sell on fact" ???

Of course. Rumor moves the market. Fact is already priced in.

[TexasHusker]

That's because of Trump mentioning the idea of a payroll tax cut. That doesn't mean it will actually happen, of course, but it will at least give the market a temporary bump.

"Buy on rumor, sell on fact" ???

[Jluke]

That's because of Trump mentioning the idea of a payroll tax cut. That doesn't mean it will actually happen, of course, but it will at least give the market a temporary bump.

Yep. Rerod said he was expecting a drop today given yesterday’s end of day

was just noting that there was a bump up

volatile times are here. For now.

[disneysteve]

Pre-market this morning things are up right now.

That's because of Trump mentioning the idea of a payroll tax cut. That doesn't mean it will actually happen, of course, but it will at least give the market a temporary bump.

[Jluke]

By the way the market reacted the last minutes, we will see more pain today.

I sold all 6 digits of the VBTLX Ive been holding for years yesterday and put in MM, because of the melt up and almost 0 yield. I did ok with a average of 3.5% a year and it gained value as the market tumbled. I wanted to do this in 09 and invest in to equities, but my uncle talked me out of it.. Never again.

Now I need to call a bottom to reinvest into the VTSAX I hold, and planned to start DCAing after -20%. And all in if we see -35

Pre-market this morning things are up right now.

[rerod]

By the way the market reacted the last minutes, we will see more pain today.

I sold all 6 digits of the VBTLX Ive been holding for years yesterday and put in MM, because of the melt up and almost 0 yield. I did ok with a average of 3.5% a year and it gained value as the market tumbled. I wanted to do this in 09 and invest in to equities, but my uncle talked me out of it.. Never again.

Now I need to call a bottom to reinvest into the VTSAX I hold, and planned to start DCAing after -20%. And all in if we see -35

[~bs]

It's possible we never truly see a bear market, and those waiting for it to hit rock bottom will miss the boat, who knows. You could use the 2008 recession as a gauge of how bad it can get. Say a 50%+ retraction from the highs would put the Dow at maybe 14-15k.

[TexasHusker]

I understand how prices in equities are generally - though not always - related to the fundamentals of a company. I am waiting for IRRATIONAL selling. Fire sale type stuff. Emotional selling. I don’t see that yet.

The underpinnings of our economy are quite strong. The equities market was quite frothy, however, and it was a bubble awaiting a needle. The needle for correction was CV19. The needle for bear market was an oil crash.

How much more downside we have from here will depend on fear and emotion and the manifestation of these in the psyche of investors.

Many in this bull market have never experienced a bear. Their behavior will be key. Everyone says “long and strong” in a bull.

[Singuy]

Good luck. I have put some blue chips on my watch list - Chevron, Apple, Caterpillar, Disney, and a few others. I am still waiting for panic selling. The markets remain far too calm.

If we breach 20K on the Dow, that could be what sends everyone for the exits, with the Dow finally finding some support in the mid teens. A bear market can put the squeeze on even the most seasoned investor. The though process begins to look like "Yeah, I've lost 25%, but why should I lose another 25% when I know it's likely going down?" I mean sure, we all know that the markets will go on to new record highs at some point, but why should I suffer a 50 percent haircut in the process?

So you will have those that were OK with a 25% dip (but nervous), but are most certainly NOT ok with yet another 25% dip. Because that means you've got to score 100% just to get back to where you were.

This is not how stock works. Stock works on multiples given to a company. Panic selling without assigning an evaluation to a company will eventually lead to a company's stock being zero because it's like playing musical chairs.

The worst financial crisis we had(and that was a real crisis btw) had the stock drop by 40% but the bounce back was pretty hard too, and just after 2 years those who held or was breaking even.

And you have to realize that this current situation is just irrational selling(like what you are saying) because "we are due for a recession anyways". Maybe due for a correction, but there are no recession indicators.

The 2008 financial crisis had banks giving out high interest rates like candy because there was a RUN ON THE BANKs. I remember Washington mutual was giving out 4.5% interest on a typical SAVINGS ACCOUNT. So you had a situation where interest rate was high so you can park your money elsewhere(unlike today), banks were becoming very illiquid(unlike today), companies had difficult time borrowing money(unlike today), they were laying off people (not today either) which caused even more foreclosures(housing market is strong today). That was a negative feedback loop of pure turd and even then, the stock market only managed to drop 40% and didn't even hold that drop for that long.

I am very bullish on the economy because that last financial crisis changed the dynamics of a typical "heated market then recession" cycle IMO. Many companies were forced to work with what they have or die because the banks were not lending out money. This led to an explosion of automation and high productivity with lower operational cost. This has caused the longest money printing machine these companies have ever witnessed to the point that a new pollical party (call the democratic socialist) was born due to x, y and z not paying their fair wages even though productivity skyrocketed.

So yeah, companies are doing way more with the use of technology and globalization than before. With low productivity, you'll have scarcity of goods which leads to inflation therefore interest rate increases. As interest rate increases, people start parking their money out of equities which eventually cause a burst of the bubble. Now interest rates are stupid low while inflation doesn't exist even though unemployment rate is at an all time low. You can thank that fire from 2008 that was lite under these company's asses.

[disneysteve]

Good luck. I have put some blue chips on my watch list - Chevron, Apple, Caterpillar, Disney, and a few others. I am still waiting for panic selling. The markets remain far too calm.

If we breach 20K on the Dow, that could be what sends everyone for the exits, with the Dow finally finding some support in the mid teens. A bear market can put the squeeze on even the most seasoned investor. The though process begins to look like "Yeah, I've lost 25%, but why should I lose another 25% when I know it's likely going down?" I mean sure, we all know that the markets will go on to new record highs at some point, but why should I suffer a 50 percent haircut in the process?

So you will have those that were OK with a 25% dip (but nervous), but are most certainly NOT ok with yet another 25% dip. Because that means you've got to score 100% just to get back to where you were.

As I've shared before, over the past few years, I gradually dialed back our equity exposure from about 85% to about 60-65% so even a 50% drop in the stock market only means about a 30% drop in our portfolio. I'm okay with that at this point in my life. I've still got enough years ahead of me to recover. And I'm still willing to put more in when the buying is good.

Time will tell how good my AAL buy was. It was only $4,300 so not a huge investment in a $1.3 million portfolio (well more like $1.2 million now). I just wanted to play a bit.

[kork13]

Soooo..... I'm starting to strongly consider something I wouldn't otherwise have considered.... But I'm really kinda thinking about using some of our next home's DP cash to start buying into the market drop to take advantage of the fire sale rather than sitting on the sideline. DW already agreed to it (remarkably easily -- I suggested the idea, and she immediately said "Let's do it"), but I'm still a bit hesitant. Brain says "FULL STEAM AHEAD!!" while heart says "Debt free home in 3 years! Risk-free!" I know that as the values (eventually) come back up, that money will grow even more & I can use it to knock out the mortgage at will. I'm just wrestling with the idea of intentionally reducing my DP to bet on that growth.

I've got ~$155k currently set aside planned for the DP, planning to buy something in the $375k-$400k range in May. $140k of that is straight cash (MM/savings), $5k in an I-Bond, $10k (formerly $12k ) in stock MF's that I've been slowly selling over the last 8 months (gratefully!! ~$80k of my cash is from those MF sales, sold at the height of the market, which is all now perfectly safe amid this storm). Thinking is that I can leave the I-Bond and MF's alone, set aside $100k cash (~25%) as the DP, and start buying into the market again with the remaining ~$40k.

I'd be buying into a set of 6 ETFs that I've been planning to start into once we actually purchased the house. First step would probably be $10k upfront, then maybe another $1k/week for as long as the $40k (or this down market) lasts. Just not sure if I'm straight-up crazy, or crazy as a fox....

ETA: Decided to go for it.... I just put in $10k in limit orders at advantageous prices, and we'll just have to see how it goes. I'll reassess in a week, and go from there...

//BREAK//
In other news, I did switch the automatic investments for DW's & my Roth IRAs to invest weekly instead of twice-monthly, just to give us more touch-points to the market & follow the volatility a little better. I'm also thinking to triple the invested amounts (from ~$110/wk to $300/wk), to front-load our contributions & max out by 1 July, vs. spreading them out over the rest of the year. Haven't quite pulled that trigger yet.

ETA: Also pulled that trigger & set up the tripled purchase amounts.

[Singuy]

Congrats to those who bought. Trump caused AH trading to spike hard already. Tomorrow will be another historical green day.

Honestly, the economy is fine..people really need to just wait it out. But Trump really needs the stock market to fly high so the Trump rally continues.

[rooskers]

If you have seen my previous post, I went through a tragic divorce and was awarded my half of the retirement. It just so happens that I put $250,000 of the retirement, that was sitting in cash, into my balanced portfolio of funds today. The market may go down but at least it didn't go in three months ago when I was waiting for the QDRO to go through to get my half of the retirement. The rest of the money will be dollar cost averaged into the market over the next year. Here is to the next 25 plus years of growth, I hope.

[TexasHusker]

I took the plunge and bought 300 shares of American Airlines at 14.535 in one of my IRAs. It's down over 52% from last month and is at a 5-year low by a significant margin. I'm happy to hold onto it for years if that's what it takes. I don't expect a fast recovery.

Good luck. I have put some blue chips on my watch list - Chevron, Apple, Caterpillar, Disney, and a few others. I am still waiting for panic selling. The markets remain far too calm.

If we breach 20K on the Dow, that could be what sends everyone for the exits, with the Dow finally finding some support in the mid teens. A bear market can put the squeeze on even the most seasoned investor. The though process begins to look like "Yeah, I've lost 25%, but why should I lose another 25% when I know it's likely going down?" I mean sure, we all know that the markets will go on to new record highs at some point, but why should I suffer a 50 percent haircut in the process?

So you will have those that were OK with a 25% dip (but nervous), but are most certainly NOT ok with yet another 25% dip. Because that means you've got to score 100% just to get back to where you were.