Anybody buying on this downturn?

[disneysteve]

What truly concerns me is if the pandemic just revealed a pre-existing underlying economic mess? I can understand Mom & Pop small businesses operating on low margins forced to lay people off to stay afloat but for larger companies to also do this? Something is rotten in the state of Denmark!

Regarding oil, I am sorry but POTUS has no control over the SA - Russia spat. I think he's making statements that aren't necessarily accurate and more than likely just speculation or even just what he wants / hopes will happen, at this point.

Businesses small and large depend heavily on debt. That's nothing new. It works, until it doesn't. I can only imagine that Dave Ramsey is sitting in his paid off home or paid off office building having the biggest "I told you so" moment in history. Small businesses have thousands in debt. Big businesses have millions.

As for POTUS, I'll refrain from saying much there other than yes, every word that he speaks or tweets is 100% suspect as to it's truth until it is confirmed by independent sources.

[Scallywag]

What truly concerns me is if the pandemic just revealed a pre-existing underlying economic mess? I can understand Mom & Pop small businesses operating on low margins forced to lay people off to stay afloat but for larger companies to also do this? Something is rotten in the state of Denmark!

Regarding oil, I am sorry but POTUS has no control over the SA - Russia spat. I think he's making statements that aren't necessarily accurate and more than likely just speculation or even just what he wants / hopes will happen, at this point.

[disneysteve]

Yet the Dow surged 400 points? Makes no sense.

Apparently Trump tweeted that oil production will be cut and prices shot up.

[disneysteve]

Laying off people also means that businesses to not be able to restart operations once the pandemic is "under control", plus the loss in sales / revenue as consumers are either too broke or too nervous to spend.

Too many people are spooked and piling up cash, and even folks who were previously spendthrifts are paring down. Payroll reductions may provide temporary relief but the overall domino effect will devastate every business as a whole in the long run.

This will likely not end well.

I don't disagree with any of that. I was just saying why at least a short term bump in the market makes sense.

There are a lot of businesses that are trying to look good and keep paying their employees. Great optics but lousy financial move.

As for restarting, I'm sure we will have some kind of heads up before the restrictions are lifted so they'll have time to call back the staff. Maybe it will just be a few days but that's long enough to reach out to your staff and get them lined up to return. The vast majority of people want to get back to work. They're anxiously awaiting that call back. At least that's true of everyone I know who has been laid off and is collecting unemployment right now. They can't wait for this to be over.

[Scallywag]

I think it makes some sense.

A. It was expected.
B. Laying off workers slashes costs for employers letting them preserve cash. The longer employers try to keep paying their employees, the worse it is for their businesses. Getting folks off the payroll is good for the business.

Laying off people also means that businesses to not be able to restart operations once the pandemic is "under control", plus the loss in sales / revenue as consumers are either too broke or too nervous to spend.

Too many people are spooked and piling up cash, and even folks who were previously spendthrifts are paring down. Payroll reductions may provide temporary relief but the overall domino effect will devastate every business as a whole in the long run.

This will likely not end well.

[disneysteve]

6 million unemployment claims made last week, more than double that of the previous week, taking total claims to 10 million????? That number does not include contractors and hourly workers - it's just awful. Yet the Dow surged 400 points? Makes no sense.

I think it makes some sense.

A. It was expected.
B. Laying off workers slashes costs for employers letting them preserve cash. The longer employers try to keep paying their employees, the worse it is for their businesses. Getting folks off the payroll is good for the business.

[Scallywag]

6 million unemployment claims made last week, more than double that of the previous week, taking total claims to 10 million????? That number does not include contractors and hourly workers - it's just awful. Yet the Dow surged 400 points? Makes no sense.

[~bs]

I think the unemployment numbers are going to be really bad. I am staying on the sidelines because my nest egg is very small and because I suspect this is unfortunately just the beginning.

Going from 250k prior to the epidemic to 3-4million right after is insane. In my state, leading economists expect official unemployment numbers to reach over 25% before starting to decline. Crime is already starting to jump upwards.

[Scallywag]

I think the unemployment numbers are going to be really bad. I am staying on the sidelines because my nest egg is very small and because I suspect this is unfortunately just the beginning.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

I might put JETS on watchlist. But right now I want to see how 1Q ends up. Tomorrow unemployment numbers might cause a shock

[kork13]

JETS has dipped 10%+ today, so one of my orders for them executed today. Also had an order for VNQ (REITs, down 7%+ today) execute today. Both fairly small orders (~$150 each), but that's most of what I'm doing at this point... Just 1-2x weekly limit orders to slowly accumulate shares while riding the volatility roller coaster. Depending on how the rest of this week goes (I'm expecting slowly downward), I'll probably have some more orders go through by Friday.

[disneysteve]

Bought 80 shares of american airlines this morning. I wanted to be in on the party.

It's about $2 lower than I paid. I was thinking about buying more JETS. It's slightly below my average cost basis. I don't think I'll buy at this level but if it falls more I might.

[rennigade]

Bought 80 shares of american airlines this morning. I wanted to be in on the party.

[~bs]

The Dow is up 21.3% since Monday. Everything I bought during the downturn is now in positive territory which is nice - if it lasts. 300 shares of American Airlines, 600 shares of JETS ETF, and 26 shares of Vanguard High Dividend fund (which I buy every month but usually only get 11 or 12 shares with my purchase).

Our Vanguard account is back over 500K. It started around 609K and dipped as low as about 470K I think. What a wild ride.

Yeah, the ride is crazy.... I bought a muni fund when everything was getting sold off last week. Now I'm up by 20% Wonder if I should just sell it for the short term gain... Worried that the municipal market is going to have big problems ahead since the crisis is obviously going to affect state and local government.

[disneysteve]

The Dow is up 21.3% since Monday. Everything I bought during the downturn is now in positive territory which is nice - if it lasts. 300 shares of American Airlines, 600 shares of JETS ETF, and 26 shares of Vanguard High Dividend fund (which I buy every month but usually only get 11 or 12 shares with my purchase).

Our Vanguard account is back over 500K. It started around 609K and dipped as low as about 470K I think. What a wild ride.