Anybody buying on this downturn?

[safari]

How many years until you retire?

20+ years till retirement, but in this case it doesn't matter. Why ride this out, if there is a certainty that it will get worse before it starts getting better. Normally I would never try to time the market because there is no way to tell whether a slide will continue, whether we bottomed out yet, etc., but here I don't have to listen to any analysts to see that the worse is yet to come. I have no doubts that the market will recover after the pandemic ends, the only question is how long that recovery will take. I am going to put all the money back in stocks once the virus spread starts slowing down. By temporarily exiting the stock market I will shorten the recovery time for my investments.

[greenskeeper]

I liquidated all my stock holdings today, including 401K. Normally I would never advocate selling on the dip, but this is a very unique situation, unlike anything that ever happened before. The whole world is shutting down for a few months, so the stock market is going to continue plunging, regardless of what the government tries to do. I will re-enter the market once the spread of the virus starts slowing down, but I am not willing to ride this down wave.

How many years until you retire?

[TexasHusker]

LoL 75% paper loss? If that happens I'll remortgage my house and dump it into the market. Looking at some of these travel stocks, if it drops another 50% from today's levels from what you are saying, oh...man..I will be rich in 10 years..like filthy.

You might get that opportunity. Many publicly traded companies are heading for bankruptcy. Any company with an iffy balance sheet right now is in deep dookie. How many companies out there have the cash to get through weeks or months of no income? The feds can print all the money they want. This is quickly trending toward making the financial crisis look like a limbo contest.

[Singuy]

Normally I would agree, but in this situation I'd rather lock in a 25% loss from the high point than risk a 50-75% paper loss, which would take years to recover from. I've enjoyed substantial gains in the last 4 years, so overall I am very much in the green. I hope you're right that the downturn is already priced in, but I highly doubt it. Based on what's been happening around the world, it's going to get much worse before we'll start seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.

LoL 75% paper loss? If that happens I'll remortgage my house and dump it into the market. Looking at some of these travel stocks, if it drops another 50% from today's levels from what you are saying, oh...man..I will be rich in 10 years..like filthy.

[disneysteve]

Normally I would agree, but in this situation I'd rather lock in a 25% loss from the high point than risk a 50-75% paper loss, which would take years to recover from. I've enjoyed substantial gains in the last 4 years, so overall I am very much in the green. I hope you're right that the downturn is already priced in, but I highly doubt it. Based on what's been happening around the world, it's going to get much worse before we'll start seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.

I don't think we're at the bottom yet so I don't disagree with you there. I'm at least 5 years from retirement, probably more, so I'm willing to hang in there.

[safari]

Stock prices factor in known information, so you have to consider that current prices may already account for lousy earnings for the next couple of quarters. That doesn't mean that prices will just keep falling endlessly.

Some of the drop is panic selling from people who just want to get out at any price. Selling out after the market has dropped 25% is just locking in those paper losses.

Normally I would agree, but in this situation I'd rather lock in a 25% loss from the high point than risk a 50-75% paper loss, which would take years to recover from. I've enjoyed substantial gains in the last 4 years, so overall I am very much in the green. I hope you're right that the downturn is already priced in, but I highly doubt it. Based on what's been happening around the world, it's going to get much worse before we'll start seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.

[disneysteve]

First, it will only get worse in the foreseeable future - this is not a guess, but a reality. Secondly, this is a worldwide pandemic - there is no country or industry that won't be negatively affected.

Stock prices factor in known information, so you have to consider that current prices may already account for lousy earnings for the next couple of quarters. That doesn't mean that prices will just keep falling endlessly.

Some of the drop is panic selling from people who just want to get out at any price. Selling out after the market has dropped 25% is just locking in those paper losses.

[disneysteve]

DJIA down 3,000 points today. That was brutal.

[safari]

Curious, but how long have you been investing with equities? Not trying to criticize your decision based on age or make any argument. I've still got a ways to go for retirement (20+ yrs), and still consider myself a beginner investor. So I'm in it for the long haul, good or bad.

I started investing in 2006 before the financial crisis. Never sold anything until now. I also have 20+ years until retirement, but I feel strongly that I made the right decision for several reasons. First, it will only get worse in the foreseeable future - this is not a guess, but a reality. Secondly, this is a worldwide pandemic - there is no country or industry that won't be negatively affected. I didn't make the decision to sell by listening to any experts - I based it on logical thinking.

[cypher1]

I liquidated all my stock holdings today, including 401K. Normally I would never advocate selling on the dip, but this is a very unique situation, unlike anything that ever happened before. The whole world is shutting down for a few months, so the stock market is going to continue plunging, regardless of what the government tries to do. I will re-enter the market once the spread of the virus starts slowing down, but I am not willing to ride this down wave.

Curious, but how long have you been investing with equities? Not trying to criticize your decision based on age or make any argument. I've still got a ways to go for retirement (20+ yrs), and still consider myself a beginner investor. So I'm in it for the long haul, good or bad.

[Singuy]

I liquidated all my stock holdings today, including 401K. Normally I would never advocate selling on the dip, but this is a very unique situation, unlike anything that ever happened before. The whole world is shutting down for a few months, so the stock market is going to continue plunging, regardless of what the government tries to do. I will re-enter the market once the spread of the virus starts slowing down, but I am not willing to ride this down wave.

People should continue to share their liquidating story. The more of these we get, the more likely we can see when the market bottoms out.

Bought 4k worth of CCL plus some DIS.

Everyone becomes a market timer when conventional wisdom tell you not to. People really need to stop caring about $$$ so much. If you do, then just go sit on cash. In the markets, the more you care, the less you make.

[safari]

I liquidated all my stock holdings today, including 401K. Normally I would never advocate selling on the dip, but this is a very unique situation, unlike anything that ever happened before. The whole world is shutting down for a few months, so the stock market is going to continue plunging, regardless of what the government tries to do. I will re-enter the market once the spread of the virus starts slowing down, but I am not willing to ride this down wave.

[bjl584]

My guess is, we're going to see a turnaround in the market when the news outlets start reporting that the virus is slowing, very few new cases, etc etc. At that point, people will start doing things again, traveling again, spending money again. Until then, I dont see how the market wouldnt keep going down. The feds threw some hail marys at the economy and it didnt do a single thing. Could be as long as a couple months.

Then again, im spouting bro science, so take that for what it is. I def think there is going to be a lot of buying opportunities in the next weeks.

I read something similar.
The markets will recover once the virus peeks and new cases start to trail off.
But, not sure how much it will recover or how long it will take.
What is happening now is going to haunt us for quite a while

[rennigade]

My guess is, we're going to see a turnaround in the market when the news outlets start reporting that the virus is slowing, very few new cases, etc etc. At that point, people will start doing things again, traveling again, spending money again. Until then, I dont see how the market wouldnt keep going down. The feds threw some hail marys at the economy and it didnt do a single thing. Could be as long as a couple months.

Then again, im spouting bro science, so take that for what it is. I def think there is going to be a lot of buying opportunities in the next weeks.

[disneysteve]

with everything heading toward lockdown, there is no economy. How many days can an economy be locked down? How many days can businesses, big and small, go with zero revenue? How many people can go two weeks with zero pay? Without being able to buy gas or groceries? Or their heart medicine?

Only businesses with hearty cash reserves are going to survive this. Barring some unexpected remarkably good news in the next few days, we are heading for a “new normal” in this country that will be profound. It could take decades for things like the stock market to recover. Let’s think through this and not kid ourselves.

I think you're absolutely right. Businesses are going to fail, small businesses and very likely some big ones too. A lot of businesses have been built on debt so when income slows or stops, the house comes crashing down. This will be a huge Dave Ramsey "I told you so" moment. A company like Apple that has $100 billion in cash reserves will be just fine but many other companies won't survive.

However, that also creates opportunity. Sure, some individual airlines might go under, but other stronger airlines will buy up their routes and planes. People aren't going to stop flying, or eating in restaurants, or staying in hotels, or going to bars. A billion dollar cruise ship isn't going to be sold off for scrap. Somebody will buy it at a steep discount if the company goes under, rebrand it, and put it back in service.

There is going to be a lot of pain but it will end eventually and things will get back on track. I think in hindsight, we will see this period as a time when incredible investment opportunities presented themselves to those with the cahones to dive in. I would be really really careful about buying individual stocks because you don't want to buy into that company that doesn't make it through, but mutual funds and ETFs that spread your risk are probably the way to go. Yes, I did buy AAL but then I turned my attention to JETS for just that reason.