Anybody buying on this downturn?

[greenskeeper]

EV adoption is all about market share conversion. People who have purchased an EV will most likely(96% chance) of never purchasing a gas car again. So as Tesla (and others) convert more and more people, the marketshare will just climb higher and higher as new car cycles around in 10 years or so. So it'll take awhile, but the market is forward looking. Things will get pretty bad for oil if 1 to 2 million people per year start going EV. So if any other car company doesn't have an EV program, then they essentially lost a customer to Tesla permanently. EVs are honestly not an alternative to ICE unlike how a Honda Civics is an alternative to Toyota corolla. The expectation of how your car should function is altered forever once you go EV, kind of how most never went back to flip phones after smart phones.

Electrons for you = cheaper oil for me

[Singuy]

Have you not seen the Samsung Galaxy Z flip phone? They are back in fashion.There is a new Motorola Razr too.

LoL, yes, but they are smart phones that flip. Also it's not going to be very popular because of reliability issues while providing very little functional value.

[disneysteve]

kind of how most never went back to flip phones after smart phones.

Have you not seen the Samsung Galaxy Z flip phone? They are back in fashion.There is a new Motorola Razr too.

[Singuy]

I think it will be a long time before EVs are the norm.

I think the oil companies and airlines will bounce back fairly quickly once the virus stuff settles down. I think the cruise lines will take longer but will come back, too. I just can't decide if I want to get on that "boat" at this point.

EV adoption is all about market share conversion. People who have purchased an EV will most likely(96% chance) of never purchasing a gas car again. So as Tesla (and others) convert more and more people, the marketshare will just climb higher and higher as new car cycles around in 10 years or so. So it'll take awhile, but the market is forward looking. Things will get pretty bad for oil if 1 to 2 million people per year start going EV. So if any other car company doesn't have an EV program, then they essentially lost a customer to Tesla permanently. EVs are honestly not an alternative to ICE unlike how a Honda Civics is an alternative to Toyota corolla. The expectation of how your car should function is altered forever once you go EV, kind of how most never went back to flip phones after smart phones.

[disneysteve]

I bought some Chevron last week. Not a whole lot. I see fossil fuels going down the tubes once the EV vehicles reach 400 miles in range.

I think it will be a long time before EVs are the norm.

I think the oil companies and airlines will bounce back fairly quickly once the virus stuff settles down. I think the cruise lines will take longer but will come back, too. I just can't decide if I want to get on that "boat" at this point.

[TexasHusker]

DisneySteve, I saw Exxon Mobile was trading at $35 this morning - thats a screaming buy.

I bought some Chevron last week. Not a whole lot. I see fossil fuels going down the tubes once the EV vehicles reach 400 miles in range.

[james.hendrickson]

I was just looking at some current numbers. Just over a week ago, I made a watch list of a few stocks.

CCL was $27.15 down from $44.06 a month earlier. Today it is $12.98
RCL was $49.12 down from $117.23 a month earlier. Today it is $27.70

I'm glad I didn't buy then. Those drops are outrageous. Where's the bottom?

DisneySteve, I saw Exxon Mobile was trading at $35 this morning - thats a screaming buy.

[disneysteve]

I was just looking at some current numbers. Just over a week ago, I made a watch list of a few stocks.

CCL was $27.15 down from $44.06 a month earlier. Today it is $12.98
RCL was $49.12 down from $117.23 a month earlier. Today it is $27.70

I'm glad I didn't buy then. Those drops are outrageous. Where's the bottom?

[Nutria]

I liquidated all my stock holdings today, including 401K. Normally I would never advocate selling on the dip, but this is a very unique situation, unlike anything that ever happened before. The whole world is shutting down for a few months, so the stock market is going to continue plunging, regardless of what the government tries to do. I will re-enter the market once the spread of the virus starts slowing down, but I am not willing to ride this down wave.

On Thursday the 12th I sold all my equities except the small percent in my 401(k). Will buy it back when the volatility is over.

[disneysteve]

Goldman Sachs today said the S&P 500 could drop another 16% from today's close (3/16) to bottom at 2,000. But they also expect a rapid recovery by the end of the year.

Obviously, only time will tell if they're right, but that's pretty much what I've said. Immense short-term pain but once the coronavirus threat is mitigated, a fairly speedy recovery. Let's home that's how it plays out.

With Trump actually saying today that things are bad and that we could be heading into a recession - a pretty big admission coming from him - the market may continue its slide, though at the moment, futures are actually slightly positive. Tomorrow will be another interesting day.

[Singuy]

I don't think anyone should begrudge you for your decision. I cashed out as the 2008 crisis was spiraling. Sure I would have eventually made all of that up, but I decided to go a different direction and at least in my case, I ended up making many times more. Do what you feel comfortable with. And keep in mind that many of those who might be preaching "long and strong" are in reality doing the same as you. My granddad told me "never live by cliches." "Buy and hold" is a cliche. Everyone buys and sells at some point. Be safe and good luck.

Buying high and selling low is also a cliché. There's only one cliché here that makes you poor.

I argue that buying and holding is conventional wisdom NO ONE FOLLOWS. Or else there will be so many multi millionaires with all those apple/amazon/Microsoft/intel/list goes on and on stocks. But no, everyone sells to lock in gains or afraid of "losing more"..hey look another cliché. Buy and hold is perhaps exercised less than any cliché you can throw at the stock market.

[disneysteve]

A bear market is the real test for your asset allocation and risk tolerance. It's easy to say, in theory, that you'd be okay with a 20 or 30 or 40% drop - until it actually happens and you find you're freaking out and lying awake all night convinced the world is ending. If that's the case and you need to pull back and reduce your stock exposure, go right ahead. You're not wrong.

And those of us who are holding on and even buying more aren't wrong either.

Before this slide started, I had $47,000 in cash in my Roth. I converted the account to a brokerage account, which I should have done months ago but never bothered. Then I moved $35,000 into my settlement account, used about $5,000 to buy JETS on Friday, and put in a limit order to buy more today but it didn't hit the target price. I'm okay with my risk tolerance. I'm sleeping fine at night.

Everybody's situation is different.

[QuarterMillionMan]

I liquidated all my stock holdings today, including 401K. Normally I would never advocate selling on the dip, but this is a very unique situation, unlike anything that ever happened before. The whole world is shutting down for a few months, so the stock market is going to continue plunging, regardless of what the government tries to do. I will re-enter the market once the spread of the virus starts slowing down, but I am not willing to ride this down wave.

100% agreed.

[TexasHusker]

20+ years till retirement, but in this case it doesn't matter. Why ride this out, if there is a certainty that it will get worse before it starts getting better. Normally I would never try to time the market because there is no way to tell whether a slide will continue, whether we bottomed out yet, etc., but here I don't have to listen to any analysts to see that the worse is yet to come. I have no doubts that the market will recover after the pandemic ends, the only question is how long that recovery will take. I am going to put all the money back in stocks once the virus spread starts slowing down. By temporarily exiting the stock market I will shorten the recovery time for my investments.

I don't think anyone should begrudge you for your decision. I cashed out as the 2008 crisis was spiraling. Sure I would have eventually made all of that up, but I decided to go a different direction and at least in my case, I ended up making many times more. Do what you feel comfortable with. And keep in mind that many of those who might be preaching "long and strong" are in reality doing the same as you. My granddad told me "never live by cliches." "Buy and hold" is a cliche. Everyone buys and sells at some point. Be safe and good luck.

[cypher1]

20+ years till retirement, but in this case it doesn't matter. Why ride this out, if there is a certainty that it will get worse before it starts getting better. Normally I would never try to time the market because there is no way to tell whether a slide will continue, whether we bottomed out yet, etc., but here I don't have to listen to any analysts to see that the worse is yet to come. I have no doubts that the market will recover after the pandemic ends, the only question is how long that recovery will take. I am going to put all the money back in stocks once the virus spread starts slowing down. By temporarily exiting the stock market I will shorten the recovery time for my investments.

I'm turning 39 this month, so I'm guessing we're in a similar situation (I didn't start investing till 28). Since I don't expect to access my funds anytime soon, I'm gonna just stay the course and see how far it goes. Just a matter of comfort and risk tolerance, no judgment towards your decision.