Anybody buying on this downturn?

[disneysteve]

I don’t think market timing is “bad”. I think market timing doesn’t work most of the time. It’s not a sound long term investment strategy.

[disneysteve]

Heck yes..

He picks companies that are undervalued...

And then holds them long term. That’s not the definition of market timing. Buy and hold is the opposite of market timing.

[Captain Save]

Is Warren Buffet a market timer?
.

Heck yes..

He picks companies that are undervalued...

he is looking for opportunities... that's the exact opposite of putting your money on something that represents the US economy and letting it ride...

Everything has pros and cons...

But you guys seem to live in absolutes.. "this is bad" .. and "that is good" ... and if it 's something you deem positive .. you must put in your "good" box... and since market timing is "bad" .. then Warren Buffett must not be a market timer.

[disneysteve]

Where's all the .. "OMG why are you timing the market" posts.

I don't think taking advantage of opportunities and buying low is what market timing means.

Is Warren Buffet a market timer? He has a bunch of well-known quotes that I think apply here.

1. "Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."
2. "Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases."
3. "Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."
4. "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."
5. "The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble...We want to buy them when they're on the operating table."

I'd point to #5 as the key today. I have no doubt that the airlines and cruise lines will recover from the Coronavirus issue. People are not suddenly going to stop flying or cruising. Yes, they'll stop, or at least cut back a lot, until this outbreak is controlled, but then things will get back to normal, just as they did after 9/11. It may take a year or two or three, but I don't think any of us here are talking about flipping these stocks quickly. I know I mentioned that but I'm not actually planning to do it, appealing as it may be. I bought AAL yesterday and it closed up $2.50/share today from my purchase price. I could have sold for an overnight $700+ profit, but I didn't. I'd rather hold on for the long term and wait for it to get back to $30-40 before I sell. I don't care when that is. Not that there would have been anything particularly wrong with pocketing $700 in 24 hours. That just isn't my intention. I wasn't looking for quick money. I was looking to take advantage of a great opportunity.

[Captain Save]

I can't speak for the majority of this forum, but I think a lot of us are simply seeing an buying opportunity with certain funds dropping to 50% lower than the last 30 days. As with the idea that in the long run the market will recover. Yes, there is the likelihood of the market continuing to drop even lower, or be the catalyst to the long overdue recession. Otherwise I don't think most of us are focusing on "timing", or at least its not a regular thing for the majority of us.

While a pessimist by nature, and with all the concerns and panic within current events, I am confident we will be fine for the markets and well being as a country. So no, I will not be moving most of my funds to more bonds anytime soon, as my friend advised me to do last week.

I see nothing wrong with your strategy .. moreso the rhetoric of "never time the market" and the inconsistencies of people who say they don't time the market always thinking about buying low...

[cypher1]

Where's all the .. "OMG why are you timing the market" posts... Emotions go both ways... It's funny how the negative feedback is only a 1 way street... is it because you're been indoctrinated?
if you're not a market timer .. you're not a market timer.. if emotions are already rampant now .. imagine when it's lower..

I can't speak for the majority of this forum, but I think a lot of us are simply seeing an buying opportunity with certain funds dropping to 50% lower than the last 30 days. As with the idea that in the long run the market will recover. Yes, there is the likelihood of the market continuing to drop even lower, or be the catalyst to the long overdue recession. Otherwise I don't think most of us are focusing on "timing", or at least its not a regular thing for the majority of us.

While a pessimist by nature, and with all the concerns and panic within current events, I am confident we will be fine for the markets and well being as a country. So no, I will not be moving most of my funds to more bonds anytime soon, as my friend advised me to do last week.

[kork13]

One of my limit orders went through this morning, ~2% off from the closing price yesterday. So I'll chalk that as a win for now... We'll have to see what the future days and weeks hold, but I'll just keep buying through the ups & downs...

Captain Save you make a good point -- definitely some market-timing going on, though we're at least operating under the "buy low/sell high" mantra... Sure, we don't know exactly how low or how long this dip is gonna run. But buying shares at 20%-50% off of their highs for many stocks/funds is indisputably advantageous.

[Captain Save]

Where's all the .. "OMG why are you timing the market" posts... Emotions go both ways... It's funny how the negative feedback is only a 1 way street... is it because you're been indoctrinated?
if you're not a market timer .. you're not a market timer.. if emotions are already rampant now .. imagine when it's lower..

[rerod]

Pre-market this morning things are up right now.

Stock rally fizzles after Trump pitches tax cut: March 10, 2020

I still think we are going to see a -20% S&P or more with all the new coronavirus cases.. New York, Tennessee, Iowa. It will be in every state here soon and it's in my county, johnson county.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...-2020-n1120686

[bjl584]

definitely need dramamine if you are watching the markets today.

[~bs]

"Buy on rumor, sell on fact" ???

that's the way it's always worked. rumor is priced in, so by the time it becomes fact, the market barely budges.

[disneysteve]

If you believe in the market as a long term wealth building strategy, then buy all the way to the bottom, all the way back to the top, and everywhere in between.
I didn't change my investing frequency or strategy one bit in 2008 - 2009. As a result 2010 started to look pretty good for me.

Totally. I'm continuing my normal monthly investing in my 401k and our taxable account. But I'm also making a rare departure and looking at some individual stocks.

[bjl584]

That's the phrase of the day for sure.

If you believe in the market as a long term wealth building strategy, then buy all the way to the bottom, all the way back to the top, and everywhere in between.
I didn't change my investing frequency or strategy one bit in 2008 - 2009. As a result 2010 started to look pretty good for me.

[disneysteve]

"dead cat bounce"

That's the phrase of the day for sure.

[TexasHusker]

Of course. Rumor moves the market. Fact is already priced in.

I think back of all of the neat cliches that are said about the markets, regardless of the circumstance.

"don't fight the fed"
"don't stand in front of a falling night"
"long and strong"
"buy on rumor sell on fact"
"dead cat bounce"

If only investment strategy was as simple as a few handy cliches, we would all be rich.