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Anybody buying on this downturn?

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  • greenskeeper
    replied
    I buy on every downturn and upturn....steady monthly investments for the last 22 years and the next 25

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  • Singuy
    replied
    Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

    DIS is certainly going to have a tough quarter or two. Even though they don't own the foreign parks outright, they still get a cut of the profits. Having the two China parks already closed for over a month and now Tokyo closing for at least the next couple of weeks is going to weigh down returns. Plus it remains to be seen what will happen under Chapek. He doesn't have the creative background or vision that Iger has.
    I am bullish on their streaming service as high margin software service which should give them a higher multiple than their current high operational cost for running the parks. Would probably won't buy Disney if wasn't for their streaming service, as it is turning into the Nintendo Switch of the streaming service world(as in you get it just to have Disney's backlog of videos on demand for the family, not really competing with any other services).

    Talking about parks, they are the masters at printing money. Now they run hard ticketed events throughout the year at magic kingdom which yields them almost 150/day/person.

    Also Star Wars land is a massive hit. It's causing Hollywood studios to be so packed that Slingy Dog line was 5 hrs long. Actually all the parks are insanely packed lately, probably due to SW.

    So yes, Q1 Is gong suck, but that's what is priced in. And I believe Iger figured out the formula for Disney's success, just need to replicate it. So we are not looking for any new grand vision here.

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  • disneysteve
    replied
    Originally posted by Singuy View Post
    Put in 6k from Roth 2020 account for some AMD, DIS, and SHOP.
    DIS is certainly going to have a tough quarter or two. Even though they don't own the foreign parks outright, they still get a cut of the profits. Having the two China parks already closed for over a month and now Tokyo closing for at least the next couple of weeks is going to weigh down returns. Plus it remains to be seen what will happen under Chapek. He doesn't have the creative background or vision that Iger has.

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  • Singuy
    replied
    Put in 6k from Roth 2020 account for some AMD, DIS, and SHOP.

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  • kork13
    replied
    Originally posted by Like2Plan View Post
    I bought some total stock market today for my IRA. I planto max out my 2020 contribution by the end of this month.
    That's actually fairly tempting.... But not sure if I'll go for it, but perhaps I'll follow parafly's lead and double-up my purchases... Buy my normal bi-weekly amounts into the IRAs, but also make the same buys on the off-weeks while the correction lasts.

    ​​My limit order for BRK.B (1 share) did execute this morning at $200 on one of its deeper dips, so I guess that makes me a buyer.

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  • parafly
    replied
    It's been a wild week, but I'd like to think I'm taking advantage of the opportunities! For the most part, I'm in it for the long haul so I'm buying the dips. I think we are near the bottom, but if the drop continues, I'll just keep buying. I've been accumulating some cash in my taxable brokerage accounts because we are overdue for a correction. Covid-19 is a good excuse for the market to take that correction. I can see the FED stepping in and lowering rates in their next session, which will make equities markets happy.

    Bought the usual target fund in my Roth IRA on Wednesday and Friday. I typically dollar cost average once a month, but I am double dipping this month.

    Bought shares of a high yield dividend fund and REIT fund on Wednesday and Friday in a taxable brokerage account. These are long term holds which is hopefully contribute to my early retirement plan.

    Bought SPXS (S&P 500 Bear 3x) in a taxable brokerage account on Monday, sold on Friday for a 30% gain. Not too shabby. This certainly helps take some of the short term sting away.

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  • james.hendrickson
    replied
    Originally posted by Like2Plan View Post
    I bought some total stock market today for my IRA. I planto max out my 2020 contribution by the end of this month.
    Great job Like2Plan

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  • Like2Plan
    replied
    I bought some total stock market today for my IRA. I planto max out my 2020 contribution by the end of this month.

    Leave a comment:


  • skives
    replied
    Tempted to throw 1k in a fidelity brokerage account and/or convert some 401k to Roth 401k.

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  • disneysteve
    replied
    Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post
    The panic and ridiculousness is real.
    You may think it's ridiculous, but at least the rest of the world is taking it seriously even though the US isn't.

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  • TexasHusker
    replied
    It’s not entirely fake news, but more like embellished / over exaggerated. The panic and ridiculousness is real.

    How many people didn’t die from carbon emissions pollution in China since the factories have been shuttered? Come on, people, let’s be real here.

    The major media lives for just these moments.

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  • disneysteve
    replied
    Originally posted by kork13 View Post
    I will say I'm surprised how quickly the market went down over the last few days. The real question is "Why" -- is it because of fear, or because of actual systemic problems with supply chain, losses, etc.? Presumably some of both, just a matter of how much the one vs. the other.
    I read earlier that it is the fastest drop to a correction in over 40 years.

    I think there is certainly some fear involved but there is also some actual impact to businesses that has already occurred and will continue to be a drag on earnings for weeks or months. I mentioned earlier that Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneylands closed on January 25 and have not reopened. That's just 2 major vacation destinations that have been completely shuttered for over a month now. Over 200,000 flights have been cancelled so far. Not only does that impact the airlines but also all of the related businesses and support industries. It's also caused the price of jet fuel to drop to a 2-year low as demand has dropped off. The casino companies that have a presence in Macau are losing millions. The shipping business is suffering.

    There are still people saying it's all fake news but there is real economic damage occurring.

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  • corn18
    replied
    While I'm not happy with this dip, my bonus and RSU's hit in 2 weeks, so maybe I will get some bargains. Either way, it looks like I will have to buy stocks to get my asset allocation back up to 60/40.

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  • kork13
    replied
    Originally posted by kork13 View Post
    Actually, reconsidering... I'll put in a limit order for the BRK.B share at a deep discount. If the dip continues (significantly... like, 10% territory), I may as well snap up the cheap share, albeit just one. Why not?
    Welp.... I'll admit when I'm wrong & eat my hat.... not 2 days later, and here we are at/below the 10% down range. I will say I'm surprised how quickly the market went down over the last few days. The real question is "Why" -- is it because of fear, or because of actual systemic problems with supply chain, losses, etc.? Presumably some of both, just a matter of how much the one vs. the other.

    My trade didn't quite execute, but came within a few cents. Since the limit order didn't actually trigger, I decided to adjust the order to take it down some more. Getting greedy? Sure. But when it's just ~$200 that I'm messing with, I'm okay with playing with it a bit just for funsies. If it follows this trend, the buy will likely execute after just another day or two... But I suppose I can fiddle with it until it actually triggers.

    On the upside, looks like my retirement savings buy in a few days will likely get to enjoy the lower prices.

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  • TexasHusker
    replied
    Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

    I understand, but the actual definition is simply a 20% drop. Duration isn't part of the definition.

    I think the negative sentiment is going to hang on until the Coronavirus situation settles down. It's having a broad effect on business and economic activity. Travel plans being cancelled. Professional meetings and conferences scrapped. Study abroad students returning home. Cruises, casinos, airlines, tech companies, manufacturing supply lines, etc. And it only seems to be getting worse with each passing day.
    Duration might not technically be part of the definition, but certainly a characteristic:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/here...y-can-get.html

    “Bear markets have lasted 14.5 months on average and have taken two years to recover on average.”
    Last edited by TexasHusker; 02-27-2020, 12:55 PM.

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