Longevity: Where The Science Is Headed (Part 1 of 3)

The twentieth century saw the greatest increase in longevity of any 100-year period in history. However, some think we have reached the limits of life expectancy, while others think there is much more to come.

The oldest living person passed away April 30th at 116 – just 39 days shy of her 117th birthday. Those who knew Sister Inah Canabarro Lucas cite her piousness, lifelong interest in learning and education, and even her love of football (soccer) as keys to her longevity.

Sister Inah, a Brazilian nun, was born on June 8, 1908. At the time, she was so frail that many thought she would die young.

Some life extension advocates think she did.

Changes in Life Expectancy

A little less than 200 years ago, humans typically lived about 50 years or less, according to research published in Population and Development Review.

However, as medicine gained more success in combating pandemics and contagions, lifespans grew. Life expectancy from birth increased at a rate of three years every decade in the twentieth century. Whereas it only increased once every century for 2,000 years before that.

You might think the upward trajectory of the human lifespan would continue given its rocket-like acceleration over the last century. However, the 30-year increase in longevity during that period may have reached its limits.

Research from the University of Illinois-Chicago (UIC) published in Natural Aging has determined that the dramatic extension of life in the twentieth century was due to advances in medicine.

Nonetheless, those advances have reached their limits, according to the authors. Further advances in life extension will come from other scientific pursuits, such as the development of cell and DNA repair.

Lifespan Increase Slowed

Longevity is still increasing in the twenty-first century, but at a much slower pace than last century, according to the UIC study.

“Our analysis suggests that survival to age 100 years is unlikely to exceed 15% for females and 5% for males,” according to the study’s lead author, S. Jay Olshansky of the UIC School of Public Health.. The study determined that the average life expectancy is 85 years. That is 88 years for females and 82 years for males.

“Our result overturns the conventional wisdom that the natural longevity endowment for our species is somewhere on the horizon ahead of us — a life expectancy beyond where we are today,” Olshansky said. “Instead, it’s behind us — somewhere in the 30- to 60-year range. We’ve now proven that modern medicine is yielding incrementally smaller improvements in longevity even though medical advances are occurring at breakneck speed.”

But On The Other Hand . . .

William Mair, professor of molecular metabolism at Harvard, agrees with the findings of the UIC team. However, he cautions that we should not abandon other avenues for extending life. He calls these intriguing but unproven possibilities moon shots.

“For example, looking at strategies that could turn adult cells back into stem cells. These rejuvenation techniques may one day be used to slow cell and tissue aging and even revert cells to more youthful states,” said Mair. “These are high-risk, high-reward projects. My concern with the [Nature Aging] paper is that it will lead people to believe these moonshots are impossible, so we should not invest in them. That would be a critical mistake.”

Disease And Longevity

Dr. Eric Topol disagrees. He is the founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute.

In his new book Super Agers, published earlier this month, Topol argues that the means to increase lifespan are already here.

Topol’s thesis is that most deaths among older people are slowly developing diseases. Those diseases include cancer, cardiovascular, and neurological diseases.

“The common threads are these three diseases take a long time,” Topol told Axios. “They all have the same pathogenesis or underpinnings, and we have new tools like we never had.”

Relatively simple, inexpensive tests and AI data analytics can identify who is at most risk for those diseases, according to Topol. As a result, doctors will be able to detect the diseases earlier and develop individual courses of prevention and treatment.

Another area for optimism is the use of GLP-1 drugs

“We’re in a really power position now to achieve the fantasy of primary prevention,” Topol said. “To be able to prevent a disease because at the individual level, you have this unique information about you, that’s what’s really bringing this into reality.”

Two Approaches To Aging and Longevity

Topol’s approach is not strictly life extension, according to Mair, but it does offer a significant benefit for those who want to live longer.

“This approach will not increase the maximum upper limit of human lifespan,” said Mair. “What it can do is gradually increase the median lifespan so that more and more people can reach that upper limit.”

Potential For Life Extension Remains

Medicine may have reached its limits for life extension, but science still holds possibilities. Those possibilities center on cell and tissue rejuvenation. Although all options are on the table.

“There is no intellectual reason why we can’t break this upper limit of human lifespan of about 90 years,” said Mair. “Public health hasn’t broken it yet, because that’s not what the goal of public health is. Could it be broken through targeting the biology of aging? Quite possibly.”

Olshansky agrees.

“This is a glass ceiling, not a brick wall,” Olshansky said. “There’s plenty of room for improvement: for reducing risk factors, working to eliminate disparities and encouraging people to adopt healthier lifestyles – all of which can enable people to live longer and healthier. We can push through this glass health and longevity ceiling with geroscience and efforts to slow the effects of aging.”

Happy 20,000th Birthday! (Don’t Try To Blow Out The Candles)

There is no consensus on how long humans can live.

A study published in Nature Communications determined that human beings max out at 120 to 150. We simply lose the ability to fully recover after a physical setback. Scientists call that physiological resilience.

Other researchers feel that physiological resilience, along with cell and tissue decline, can be overcome. If they are right, that could buy you a little more time – say 1,000 years. One researcher, João Pedro de Magalhães, even thinks 20,000 years is possible.

João Pedro de Magalhães is a professor of molecular biogerontology at the Institute of Inflammation and Ageing at the University of Birmingham in England. He is optimistic about extending human life based on his study of the genomes of long-lived animals.

Similar to the moon shots Mair mentioned, de Magalhães thinks technology can develop methods of reprogramming cells linked to aging.

“I want to cheat death,” de Magalhães told

Part 2 of this series looks at the paths science is following to achieve radical longevity.

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Max Erkiletian

Max K. Erkiletian began writing for newspapers while still in high school. He went on to become an award-winning journalist and co-founder of the print magazine Free Bird. He has written for a wide range of regional and national publications as well as many on-line publications. That has afforded him the opportunity to interview a variety of prominent figures from former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank Paul Volker to Blues musicians Muddy Waters and B. B. King. Max lives in Springfield, MO with his wife Karen and their cat – Pudge. He spends as much time as possible with his kids, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren.