Predictions for further stimulus

**kork13** · 01-07-2021, 02:45 AM

Well, as the apparent victory in GA was becoming clear, Sen Schumer said yesterday that a new stimulus package would be a top priority to get done quickly. With Democratic control over House, Senate, and White House, there's really no reason to expect that not to occur. As for what those packages might include, I won't even try to guess. Money for all my friends. Inflation for all my children.

**disneysteve** · 01-07-2021, 04:56 AM

I think we will start to see significant action toward addressing the impact of the pandemic both in the form of helping individuals and taking steps to get the economy back on track.

As for inflation, the national debt has increased by 20%, about $4 trillion over the past 4 years.

**kork13** · 01-07-2021, 05:12 AM

Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

I
As for inflation, the national debt has increased by 20%, about $4 trillion over the past 4 years.

That seems like a very "head in the sand" mentality.... While inflation has been muted over the last 15 yrs of wild spending, the cows will come home to pasture eventually.

**corn18** · 01-07-2021, 05:51 AM

Originally posted by kork13 View Post

That seems like a very "head in the sand" mentality.... While inflation has been muted over the last 15 yrs of wild spending, the cows will come home to pasture eventually.

The Fed has been pumping gigantic amounts of money out for the last 10 years and no inflation. That is just weird to me and I cannot figure out why inflation hasn't kicked in yet. Something is going to happen, I just don't know what or when. Maybe I should buy some bitcoin! I will say that we decided to keep our 30 year 2.75% fixed rate mortgage as an inflation hedge. If inflation goes above 2.75%, I am making money. Although I still want to pay it off this year.

**disneysteve** · 01-07-2021, 06:22 AM

Originally posted by kork13 View Post

That seems like a very "head in the sand" mentality.... While inflation has been muted over the last 15 yrs of wild spending, the cows will come home to pasture eventually.

Oh I agree that inflation will come back at some point. We can't shoot up the debt by trillions without any impact down the road. But something needs to be done in the near term to help people and businesses with the effects of the pandemic, closures, unemployment, etc.

**Petunia 100** · 01-07-2021, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by bjl584 View Post

Personal political views and rantings aside, what is your prediction for further economic stimulus going forward now that the Democrats have taken Congress and the White House?

I think we will definitely see at least one more direct payment to individuals, in an amount larger than $600, and quite soon.

Personally, I would like to see more help focused at those who have been directly impacted. (Loss of income due to Covid, need to be home with minor children due to Covid, etc.)

**disneysteve** · 01-07-2021, 08:05 AM

Originally posted by Petunia 100 View Post

Personally, I would like to see more help focused at those who have been directly impacted.

Agreed. I wish they could target those who actually need the money. Sure it's nice that my daughter got that $600 last week, but she has been working steadily since July so it's a total bonus to her. She wasn't in need in any way.

I wish businesses could get help as well. Let's shut down indoor dining and create a relief fund for restaurants. So many businesses are operating in a way that is just contributing to the spread of Covid but what choice do they have?

**cypher1** · 01-07-2021, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by Petunia 100 View Post

I think we will definitely see at least one more direct payment to individuals, in an amount larger than $600, and quite soon.

Personally, I would like to see more help focused at those who have been directly impacted. (Loss of income due to Covid, need to be home with minor children due to Covid, etc.)

Agreed as well. I expect or hope others will get another check beyond that amount. I already have friends out of state talking about what they want to spend on (while thinking, "Don't you have student loans and car payments to deal with?"). I'd rather see the spending on food and medical for those that truly need it targeting the homeless and recently unemployed, but won't argue if others get an extra money for support.

Slightly off topic, but I was telling friends now is a good time to start selling stuff, with stimulus checks and tax season right around the corner.

**Jluke** · 01-07-2021, 01:30 PM

For the people who don’t “need” it but still receive, at least they can put the money back into society. Local business, charity etc.

kind of works out.

**disneysteve** · 01-07-2021, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by Jluke View Post

For the people who don’t “need” it but still receive, at least they can put the money back into society. Local business, charity etc.

kind of works out.

True, and that's really the point - to stimulate the economy. They want people to spend that money.

**ua_guy** · 01-07-2021, 02:59 PM

The important part to remember about stimulus checks or any government money... If you don't want it, or didn't want the government to spend it, you can gift it back to the US treasury. So far, nobody I've heard of crying about inflation and government spending has ever done so. They took the money.

With a clear path for legislation and stimulus, I hope our lawmakers come up with a way to help. Put money in the hands of individuals, not big business. IMO, let moral hazard take its course for businesses. I didn't like a lot of what I saw with the PPP and the percentage of money going to large business versus individuals.

I also hope part of the stimulus goes to new startup and SBA loans too. A lot of small businesses will need to rebuild and it will be a great time for entrepreneurs to get their start.

**disneysteve** · 01-07-2021, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by ua_guy View Post

I didn't like a lot of what I saw with the PPP

Clearly PPP was not a perfect system but the program did do a lot of good for many businesses and, through that, for the individuals who work for those businesses.

My daughter's job got a PPP loan. That enabled them to pay her for 8 weeks of the time that they were shut down which was super helpful since she didn't qualify for unemployment.

My former practice got a PPP loan. Due to Covid, the practice had nearly no money coming in but that allowed him to keep paying the staff.

The same for our synagogue with the PPP loan they got. It let them keep the lights on and the staff paid.

I have no problem, in general, with helping businesses as well as individuals. They are certainly suffering too. And if they're suffering, their employees are also suffering.

**ua_guy** · 01-07-2021, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

Clearly PPP was not a perfect system but the program did do a lot of good for many businesses and, through that, for the individuals who work for those businesses.

My daughter's job got a PPP loan. That enabled them to pay her for 8 weeks of the time that they were shut down which was super helpful since she didn't qualify for unemployment.

My former practice got a PPP loan. Due to Covid, the practice had nearly no money coming in but that allowed him to keep paying the staff.

The same for our synagogue with the PPP loan they got. It let them keep the lights on and the staff paid.

I have no problem, in general, with helping businesses as well as individuals. They are certainly suffering too. And if they're suffering, their employees are also suffering.

I should have clarified. I didn't like where PPP money was taken and employees were laid off, or where businesses weren't struggling and had no plans to lay off or stop paying employees, but took the money anyway. In my humble opinion, it didn't appear they needed it whereas other businesses desperately did.

In many instances, it helped, especially smaller companies and organizations. You've mentioned some great examples.

**kork13** · 01-07-2021, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by ua_guy View Post

I should have clarified. I didn't like where PPP money was taken and employees were laid off, or where businesses weren't struggling and had no plans to lay off or stop paying employees, but took the money anyway. In my humble opinion, it didn't appear they needed it whereas other businesses desperately did.

In many instances, it helped, especially smaller companies and organizations. You've mentioned some great examples.

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but didn't the PPP program not even use a LARGE amount of the funds allocated by the CARES act (on the order of $X00B), which funds were reallocated to the second stimulus package? Doesn't that indicate that the program wasn't utilized as extensively as it could have?

Not saying that PPP wasn't abused -- as any government program, abuse & loopholes & unintended effects are almost assured. But why didn't more small companies pursue that money?

Predictions for further stimulus