Have you been impacted by COVID-19 yet?

[rennigade]

My coworker calls the flu vaccine "liberal poison." He's never had the shot. I have a couple coworkers who also do not allow their kids to get the flu shot. Whats interesting is...none of those people have a bio degree. None work for drug manufacturers. None are doctors. None have worked for big farma, or the fda, or ever worked in any research facility. They work in IT...yet they somehow have insider knowledge about why the flu vaccine is bad for you. Like most, they're relying on confirmation bias. They seek out sources that support their way of thinking. You cant even make this stuff up.

[Like2Plan]

It seems like the elderly are dying at a high rate, no?

I believe that is true. I have been wondering about Italy which seems to have a much higher death rate. Currently 463 deaths out of 9172 cases (and 7985 cases not resolved-so, we don't really know what the final number will be). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Up to a couple of days ago S. Korea had about the same number of cases as Italy, but they have experienced far fewer deaths so far (54 deaths out of 7513 cases of which 7212 are not resolved) That is a pretty dramatic difference. S Korea's number of new cases have dropped dramatically, so they seem to have a handle on the situation.

[disneysteve]

My coworker calls the flu vaccine "liberal poison."

You can't fix stupid.

And those are some of the very same people complaining that the government and drug companies aren't doing enough to address the spread of COVID-19.

[disneysteve]

It seems like the elderly are dying at a high rate, no?

Yes, that's true. Of course that's also true of the regular seasonal flu, but the magnitude of the death rate is much higher for COVID-19. The epidemiologic data is predicting an overall death rate of 1% for COVID-19 vs 0.1% for flu.

[Like2Plan]

If a patient walked into my urgent care today, there is absolutely no way for me to know they have COVID-19. If they have mild symptoms and a negative flu test, I would send them on their way with recommendations for symptomatic treatment. If they had severe symptoms that warranted hospitalization, I would send them along to the ER, but that's true regardless of what might be causing their symptoms.

Most people will likely have mild cases and many won't even seek medical care. Just as with the regular flu, the actual incidence is unknown because of that. The problem is the higher death rate, particularly in the elderly. The current expectation is that the death rate will be around 1% vs. flu which is around 0.1%.

Do you think this will change as more testing kits become available?

[~bs]

death rate is skewed because only the most sick people are being tested in many countries. In a country like south korea where they're testing even people with more mild cases, the death rate is much lower. Once they come out with vaccines and other medicine to combat the virus, the death rate should hit flu levels. My 0.02

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-2020-3

[Like2Plan]

death rate is skewed because only the most sick people are being tested in many countries. In a country like south korea where they're testing even people with more mild cases, the death rate is much lower. Once they come out with vaccines and other medicine to combat the virus, the death rate should hit flu levels. My 0.02

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...country-2020-3

That makes a lot of sense.

[disneysteve]

Do you think this will change as more testing kits become available?

No. The 1.0% prediction takes that into account. The actual death rate currently is higher, like 3% or something (I haven't looked at the latest numbers). But they have algorithms for extrapolating based on the spread to date and they're expecting the final number to end up around that 1% mark.

[disneysteve]

death rate is skewed because only the most sick people are being tested in many countries. In a country like south korea where they're testing even people with more mild cases, the death rate is much lower. Once they come out with vaccines and other medicine to combat the virus, the death rate should hit flu levels.

Yes and no. The same is true for flu. Most people who have it don't get tested. Even many who seek medical attention don't get tested either because their doctor doesn't offer the test (we didn't in my practice) or because they present more than 48 hours after onset at which point testing isn't indicated. So it's primarily the sickest people and the ones caught early who get tested.

Your second statement is true. Once there is a vaccine and effective treatment, the death rate will decrease. It may or may not be similar to flu. Time will tell. But we won't have a vaccine for about a year or so because it takes time to develop and test and get approval.

[Like2Plan]

No. The 1.0% prediction takes that into account. The actual death rate currently is higher, like 3% or something (I haven't looked at the latest numbers). But they have algorithms for extrapolating based on the spread to date and they're expecting the final number to end up around that 1% mark.

I think it will take a while for the US statistics to be more reflective of what is actually going on given that we haven't been doing a lot of testing up 'til now. It is difficult to wrap my head around is how long the recovery period is, too.

[myrdale]

My coworker calls the flu vaccine "liberal poison." He's never had the shot.

The thing about immunizations is they are not about protecting you as much as they are about protecting the herd as a whole. If on average a person passes a virus on to say two other people, if one of those people had been immunized, then it only gets passed on to one person. Hopefully avoiding spread to folks in nursing homes, or with HIV or cancer.

Also they are not 100% effective. But you are better off having a leg up on a virus if you're in that say 20% that got the shot but still got sick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfdZTZQvuCo

I have a couple coworkers who also do not allow their kids to get the flu shot. Whats interesting is...none of those people have a bio degree. None work for drug manufacturers. None are doctors. None have worked for big farma, or the fda, or ever worked in any research facility. They work in IT.

There was a commercial a while back where a woman says "I avoid foods with high fructose corn syrup" to which her friend says "You're not a doctor, and it's natural and comes from plants".

You don't have to be a research chemist at the CDC to question a topic. Your friends are wrong, I am not arguing otherwise. I'd just label them as misinformed rather than pointing out how they are (just much as you and I) unqualified to speak on the subject.

[disneysteve]

There was a commercial a while back where a woman says "I avoid foods with high fructose corn syrup" to which her friend says "You're not a doctor, and it's natural and comes from plants".

I remember those commercials. They were so ridiculous. They were sponsored by either the manufacturer or industry group that makes and sells HFCS. They were trying to convince the public that the stuff is natural and good for you, which isn’t true of course, but I’m sure a lot of people believed them.

[rennigade]

There was a commercial a while back where a woman says "I avoid foods with high fructose corn syrup" to which her friend says "You're not a doctor, and it's natural and comes from plants".

You don't have to be a research chemist at the CDC to question a topic. Your friends are wrong, I am not arguing otherwise. I'd just label them as misinformed rather than pointing out how they are (just much as you and I) unqualified to speak on the subject.

Of course not. Opinions are like A-holes...everyone has one. Lucky for me, my better half is a scientist, and does have a phD, and is qualified to speak on such topics. The scientists she works with have a nice laugh at the anti vaccers. Also, she would never engage with anyone online about such things. Its a battle that cannot be won.

[Joan.of.the.Arch]

I read that in Italy retired medical people are being asked to come staff hospitals to make up for overwhelmed and ill hospital staff. Disneysteve or any other medical people, do you know of any mechanisms by which that request could be made in the USA? Either at local levels or nationally?

It is hard for me to imagine our bureaucratic institutions and legal systems allowing for any such thing, especially if the usual professional accreditations have been allowed to lapse or the person has moved to a state where they were never certified. At least in my state there are some "good Samaritan" laws that might, in emergency, offer legal protection to institutions and individuals who might come out of retirement to help.

[QuarterMillionMan]

All MGM properties in Las Vegas are closing its buffets due to COVID-19. Mandalay Bay, Bellagio, Aria, MGM Grand, Luxor, Excalibur, and Mirage. Makes perfect sense to me. Why risk it.

https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/news/