Anybody buying on this downturn?

[~bs]

Sorry. I quoted myself but that didn’t include the ticker. JETS, the airline ETF.

Thanks! Risky play, but share prices are low and possilby lots of upside if they recover!

[disneysteve]

What shares are you talking about? isn't disney over $100? Marriott?

Sorry. I quoted myself but that didn’t include the ticker. JETS, the airline ETF.

[~bs]

Looks like I’m the proud owner of 100 more shares. This order executed this morning. The good thing is it lowers my average cost basis.

What shares are you talking about? isn't disney over $100? Marriott?

[disneysteve]

I have 600 shares. I put in an order to get 100 more at $12.50. It doesn't look like it will get there, or at least not today, but I'll leave the order open. I'm okay either way.

Looks like I’m the proud owner of 100 more shares of JETS. This order executed this morning. The good thing is it lowers my average cost basis.

ETA ticker symbol

[disneysteve]

Would you have gone if you didn't have AP? I don't know I guess I can see spending 1/4 the money on renting a cabin but to me if I were laid off and without a job and a recession was going on, even with an EF would hesitate to spend money on a vacation. I mean a lot can happen to wipe out an EF fast. You could be unemployed a lot longer than you think. I've heard stories about all these people after age 50 not being able to find jobs close to what they were making. Or being forced to retrain.

We probably would have gone anyway, but already having our tickets obviously made it way cheaper. I think the whole trip cost about $1,000. Also, I was 35 at the time. I wasn't particularly concerned about finding work again. Would I make the same decision today at 55? To be honest, I probably would but for a different reason. Today we've got a 7-figure portfolio. We have enough saved to sustain our current monthly spending level for about 18 years without even counting future Social Security benefits. And even today, I'm not particularly concerned about finding work. In fact, now that I've got 4 years of Urgent Care experience, I think I'd have an even easier time than I had back in 2000. If it takes a year to find work, we'd be just fine.

I'm certainly not suggesting that anyone who has lost their job should be on the phone to their travel agent but as we always talk about, sound financial management gives you a great deal of flexibility in your life. Tomorrow, for example, I'm going to take advantage of the 20% off Marriott gift card deal I posted about and pick up at least $3,000 worth of gift cards for future travel. For all I know I could get laid off next week. It's been really slow at work and we've all been worried about our jobs. If it happens, it happens. We're prepared if it does.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Disney will not be "without any lines". They're talking about opening at 50% capacity. They rarely meet capacity so you're still talking about maybe 30,000 people in the parks.

I would, and I have, vacationed when I had no job. I've told the story before but in 2000 when I somewhat abruptly quit my job, I had nothing lined up and no idea when or where I'd be working again. I came downstairs one Tuesday morning and asked DW if she wanted to go to WDW. She asked when and I said how about Saturday. Sure enough, I made reservations at a cheap motel we liked down there, we already had annual passes, we loaded up the car and drove down for a 10-day visit. Also during the months I was between jobs, we went to Vegas for a previously planned visit for me to attend a medical conference. That's what an EF is for, right?

As for something like TH's rental properties, you need to keep in mind that a lot of people will downsize their travel plans. Maybe instead of the European cruise they were planning, they instead rent a cabin in the Smoky Mountains and spend 1/4 of what they were going to spend.

Would you have gone if you didn't have AP? I don't know I guess I can see spending 1/4 the money on renting a cabin but to me if I were laid off and without a job and a recession was going on, even with an EF would hesitate to spend money on a vacation. I mean a lot can happen to wipe out an EF fast. You could be unemployed a lot longer than you think. I've heard stories about all these people after age 50 not being able to find jobs close to what they were making. Or being forced to retrain.

[disneysteve]

It would be amazing to go to disney without any lines or so much less people. But at the same time if I were in a precarious situation I would certainly cancel all trips and I know TexasHusker has always said his VRBO places withstood the recession. But for me? I think if i were on the verge of worrying about my job? I would not go on vacation even planned. It would be free or staycations for me. Even a drive to a vrbo is money. Possibly camping at the most. What am I saying? I lived it. And we didn't vacation for a year without it being free.

Disney will not be "without any lines". They're talking about opening at 50% capacity. They rarely meet capacity so you're still talking about maybe 30,000 people in the parks.

I would, and I have, vacationed when I had no job. I've told the story before but in 2000 when I somewhat abruptly quit my job, I had nothing lined up and no idea when or where I'd be working again. I came downstairs one Tuesday morning and asked DW if she wanted to go to WDW. She asked when and I said how about Saturday. Sure enough, I made reservations at a cheap motel we liked down there, we already had annual passes, we loaded up the car and drove down for a 10-day visit. Also during the months I was between jobs, we went to Vegas for a previously planned visit for me to attend a medical conference. That's what an EF is for, right?

As for something like TH's rental properties, you need to keep in mind that a lot of people will downsize their travel plans. Maybe instead of the European cruise they were planning, they instead rent a cabin in the Smoky Mountains and spend 1/4 of what they were going to spend.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

It would be amazing to go to disney without any lines or so much less people. But at the same time if I were in a precarious situation I would certainly cancel all trips and I know TexasHusker has always said his VRBO places withstood the recession. But for me? I think if i were on the verge of worrying about my job? I would not go on vacation even planned. It would be free or staycations for me. Even a drive to a vrbo is money. Possibly camping at the most. What am I saying? I lived it. And we didn't vacation for a year without it being free.

[Like2Plan]

For me, it would cost very little out of pocket. (I just don't know if it would be a good idea for me to go even with the mitigation strategies.)

For others, well there are some Mega Disney Fans out there who save and scrimp for this vacation for however long it takes. (They also do a fair amount of research to make sure they are making the most of it.) I remember reading a thread on a Disney discussion board a few years back where the folks had been saving for Disney, but their stove went out. Instead of using the Disney money to replace the stove, they elected to get by with a camp stove outside, instead. The vacation meant that much to them.

So, we shall see. They are only going to allow a certain percentage of their normal crowds in (at first, anyway).

[disneysteve]

That's true. You might also have a point that there are also those who maybe once traveled to europe and asia who will go local and WDW will head up the list because we don't want to go international anymore. Or are afraid of flying that far.

That's a really good point. A lot of people will probably do a domestic vacation rather than something more exotic. There certainly won't be anybody cruising in June which normally would be peak season. And I'm sure international travel from the US will be down sharply due to health concerns and greatly limited flight availability.

Honestly, I think Disney is well positioned for the next few months.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

That's true. You might also have a point that there are also those who maybe once traveled to europe and asia who will go local and WDW will head up the list because we don't want to go international anymore. Or are afraid of flying that far.

[disneysteve]

good point about all the locals. But I think the rates of unemployment to bachelor's level jobs is coming. Or they may give a paycut or no bonus. I know quite a few without bonuses this year. And that bonus pays for vacations.

I'm certainly not suggesting that having a degree spares you from any of the pain of what's going on. Even the current 8% unemployment rate is a lot higher than it was a few months back, and you're probably right that there is more to come. You're also right that there may be cutbacks even among those still employed like smaller or no bonuses. People have also seen investment losses. Business owners have seen their businesses shut down so even though they still have their job they may not have their income.

But Disney World is an international destination. People come from everywhere. I don't think they will have any trouble filling the place to whatever capacity they set when they reopen even if international travel is still limited.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

good point about all the locals. But I think the rates of unemployment to bachelor's level jobs is coming. Or they may give a paycut or no bonus. I know quite a few without bonuses this year. And that bonus pays for vacations.

[disneysteve]

You think so? I wonder if people even those with college educations who are nervous about layoffs or are part of layoffs will spend money when they are worried?

Sure, if you have an unstable job you might not be planning a vacation, but again, the rising unemployment greatly disproportionately affects folks lower on the economic scale. The unemployment rate for those with a college degree is 8%; for those without a degree it's 21%. Big difference.

As for Disney World specifically, there are many thousands of people who can go without spending much money. Locals, for one. I know plenty of people who live in Florida and go to WDW regularly. They have annual passes. They don't need airfare. They don't need a hotel. They can just drive over and go enjoy themselves any time they want. Heck, if they are laid off, they're free to go every day if they want to.

I also know plenty of people outside of Florida, myself included, who have annual passes. We can load up the car, drive down, get a cheap room offsite, and have our usual vacation without spending a fortune. I have tons of friends who can't wait for the parks to reopen so they can head down there.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Most will.

Despite the headlines and doom and gloom, the unemployment rate among folks with a college education is only 8%. That's certainly higher than it was a few months ago but it's hardly catastrophic. The people most affected by the furloughs and lay offs are the lower income and less educated people, and they aren't the ones typically going to WDW anyway.

You think so? I wonder if people even those with college educations who are nervous about layoffs or are part of layoffs will spend money when they are worried? There are those not worried and those worried. I mean look at uber, lyft, and weworks all had a lot of layoffs last week. I think there are tons more like boeing, etc that will be happening if it didn't already start. And airlines like united are saying in October after the PPP expires they will be layoffing people. So people who are already aware their companies are in trouble, would you go on vacation?

My neighbors are college educated, she was laid off in January and he is a contractor for DIS. He thought he would get furloughed in April but it was his manager who was a "regular" employee not contractor who got furloughed! But the contractors intact and workers not. And who knows what's going to happen? He's a project manager for DIS and he just started in March. I don't see them spending any excess money anytime soon.