Past AFFY stock holders

[Singuy]

I'll play using your advice starting of next year. I'll do a 10k buy in and see.
As for this year, I'll use what you say and run it in the simulator(investor newbie here) just for some fun and game. Please continue to post! Your incites are very interesting!

[gambler2075]

I'll play using your advice starting of next year. I'll do a 10k buy in and see.
As for this year, I'll use what you say and run it in the simulator(investor newbie here) just for some fun and game. Please continue to post! Your incites are very interesting!

Well, it's just a fun game to post and see what happens! I'm just a trader who is occasionally right and occasionally wrong. Hopefully more right than wrong, haha

Up to 138,000 shares of TTPH at about 4.01 average. IMO it is being accumulated, as compared to the IBB... if you pull up an IBB for the past 10 days, TTPH tracked it fairly well, then around Mar 24th it diverged a bit IMO. On Mar 24 and Mar 28th IMO TTPH should have gone back down further, maybe 3.80 or 3.90... but it didn't, and has the feel of being accumulated. Either shorts are covering, or people are buying, or both. I think the FDA is going to decide on erava for cIAI soon (probably next 2 weeks?). Also, look back on the 3/17 recent low... TTPH hit like 3.48, and, as IBB bounced from that point, and pulled back, most other bios pulled back down to that level again (look at what ZFGN and CMRX were on 3/17... look at what they bounced to, and what they pulled back to over the past 2 days. Back down to that same level as on 3/17, or even lower). That is not the case with TTPH, which could barely get back below 4, much less back down to 3.50.

If FDA says TTPH needs another trial, I would guess the price drops to 2.75-3 probably. If FDA says they can file an NDA for IV only cIAI, I think the price jumps to 8-10$. Should be interesting!

g

[gambler2075]

Bios have run up a ton... maybe too much. Sold 70k TTPH at 4.7 ish from 4.02, +55K$. Still holding 70k just in case....

[gambler2075]

Ugghhh.... SUNE coulda woulda shoulda... had 1.2M shares I bought yesterday at 0.22, sold them at 0.25. Stock made it up to 0.40's today... made 34K$ today (50K$ over the past 5 days on SUNE) but left over 150K$ on the table.

SUNE IMO goes BK, but in the meantime, there are good trades to be had.

Rebought 90K shares of TTPH today, back up to about 140K... IMO FDA decision comes soon, feels like the stock is behaving differently than it should be right now.

http://www.bilderload.com/daten/20160405sune57VR2.jpg

g

Standard disclaimer: This isn't trading advice, and it is just what I am doing. DYODD.

[gambler2075]

Back up to 140K shares of TTPH at 4.01 average... up nicely (~160,000$) on that position at 5.2 currently. That being said, being up that much in the past 10 days is giving me an itchy trigger finger to sell. The IBB and XBI has run up alot in the past week or two, which is a bit scary. I am still waiting on the FDA response to erava/cIAI however. But definitely a different play here at 5.2 than 4.0 or 3.5 when it was stupid cheap. Time will tell.

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[gambler2075]

TTPH is fighting the IBB, which is extremely bullish (IMO). That being said, it has run up way too much and alot of bullishness is reflected in the price. Up 220K$ since a couple of weeks ago, and may sell... idk.

But then again, in my 15 years of trading, I always made more money when I listened to Livermore (quote #3)...

http://thereformedbroker.com/2013/08/03/nine-surprising-things-jesse-livermore-said/

“It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”

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[gambler2075]

Although I feel TTPH is overbought, I do like the data they are presenting at ECCMID this weekend:

http://ir.tphase.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=963979

Specifically, the MIC90's for erava as compared to tigecycline in the treatment of MDR Acinetobacter. IMO the fact that the MIC90's are half of the tygacil values for MDR acinetobacter (MDRAB) is something that the FDA will look favorably on, IMO.

Also, since Tygacil is the drug of choice (or at least one frontrunner) for the treatment of MDRAB, (colistin has too much nephrotoxicity, IMO), the FDA may look more favorably on it.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3423844/

Time will tell. I may sell out tomorrow or in the next few days, depending. Sold 20K shares today at 5.85 from 4.01 (+36,000$) but still holding 118,000 shares from 4.01. On the one hand, the stock ran way up on a bad market day, fighting the IBB, but it has run up a ton already, which is a bit scary. Tomorrow should be interesting.

Also wanted to add that one of the reasons that tygacil has excess mortality in MDRAB when the MIC is >2 ug/mL, but not when it is below 2. Erava's MIC90 is below 2, which I like.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3936940/

"The excess mortality of tigecycline is significant only among those with MIC >2 μg/mL (10/12 vs. 37/84, P = .01), but not for those with MIC ≦ 2 μg/mL (4/10 vs. 37/84, P = .81)."

g

Standard disclaimer: I may sell out at any time (and not update this thread)... not a financial professional, etc etc etc.

[gambler2075]

Bios have run up a ton... maybe too much. Sold 70k TTPH at 4.7 ish from 4.02, +55K$. Still holding 70k just in case....

Ended up selling the rest of my TTPH today... ugh. Left about 100K$ on the table. Including this 55K$ above, made 169,000$ on the ~2 week trade.

g

[Singuy]

Gambler, Eravacycline looks to be a good buy.

Tygacil has limited usage due to the fact that you can't treat bacteremia or endocarditis with this med. The drug disappears from the bloodstream and goes into the tissues way to fast, rendering it useless if pt has MDR in the blood.

Colistin, as you said, is extremely nephrotoxic.

I am reading on Ervavacycline and it seems to be measurable as a free drug in the bloodstream so it may solve Tygacil's short comings. The MIC50/90 is 2 to 4 times better than Tygacil which is fantastic.

Reason why mortality rates go up when the MIC is >2 is because 10x the MIC is required to fully treat a patient. Getting the drug concentration to the tissues(problem areas) from a level of 20 instead of 10(10 x 2 vs 10 x 1) is harder to do hence the high mortality rate.

A couple more things to think about when looking at antibiotics.
1. Most antibiotics are eliminated by the kidneys, so to hit ten times mic is not difficult for UTIs. Since there are numerous options for UTIs due to an ease of hitting mic goals, I wouldn't put too much weight in a study if UTI is the main purpose.

2. Most antibiotics have a very hard time getting through the blood brain barrier or surfactant along the walls of the lung. Hitting high concentrations in the lung or brain is what save lives.

3. MdR on S.P.A.C.E bugs, MRSA, VRE, and KSBL positive are the main focus for new antibiotics. If the antibiotics doesn't address some form of these bugs, then no one really cares.

4 Some antibiotics are more prone to develop resistance faster than others. Rifampin if used alone and that new drug Ceftaroline are two examples. Just because the data seems good today doesn't mean it will be awesome tomorrow.

5. Look for antibiotics with long lingering effects. For example, aminoglycosides can keep on attacking even after its concentration drop off and this type of effect helps with drug resistance.

6. Many antibiotics causes C.Diff due to it taking out good bacteria in the gut. This leads to limited used in the hospital because it causes more harm than good unless there is no other choice.

7. Lastly, make sure the antibiotic doesn't require massive amount of monitoring due to concentration dependent side effect profile. Also long lasting effect is great...unless there are a list of side effects that goes with it. We generally care about seizures, nephrotoxicity, ototoxicity, c.diff, and abdominal problems. Also no one likes a drug that needs to be dosed 4 times a day. This can lead to resistance due to nurse forgetting to administer the drug on time and such. We love q12 or q24h dosing.

The antibiotic you are looking at hits a lot of these notes so I feel it's a winner.

I'm a hospital pharmacist btw so I know a few things about antibiotics and how to read these documents. Hope this helps!

[gambler2075]

Wow. Thanks for posting, that is some serious DD that I need to go over in more detail this weekend. I'm an MD so doing DD about new drugs is pretty easy for me but I don't have the depth of pharmacological knowledge that comes easily to a pharmacist.

With regards to TTPH, everything I have read about the drug has me feeling pretty good, but as I said earlier, the IBB (and biotech indices like XBI) ran up a ton and hit resistance at 285 (and were rejected) so I was wary. That being said, the stock is a decent buy and hold for this year, IMO, at these levels. Right now, however, I have no position as I am looking at some other stocks for this week.

Plus, this weekend being ECCMID probably caused some antibiotic stocks to run up, not sure.

Anyway, thanks again for your DD and have a good weekend.

That being said... the biggest imminent catalyst coming soon (TM) for TTPH will be the FDA's response to their data. They will either allow for an NDA with the data in hand in the cIAI subset (IV only, IMO) or will force TTPH to do another trial. That is the million dollar question. Plus, this has been dragging on for half a year... in Nov they said they expected to hear from FDA by end of year. In Feb they said by end of March. In March they said by end of March, OR by early Q2. Now we are in Q2. So I have no idea if we will hear from FDA this Q. I do believe so, but IF the FDA states they need to do another trial then we get a gap down to like 3 IMO.

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[gambler2075]

I've been debating all weekend whether or not to buy CLVS tomorrow for their tuesday adcom. Did about 12 hours of research on roci, ruca, tagrisso and lynparza, parp inhibitors, EGFR-TKI's, T790M mutants, reading the BD's etc etc etc. Uggh... what to do. what to do. IMO if the adcom votes in favor of roci then it gaps up to 30-35. If rejection, well... the co still has ruca, but cash is 8$ per share (if you take out debt)

http://www.fda.gov/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/Drugs/OncologicDrugsAdvisoryCommittee/ucm486395.htm

The 126 page long CLVS BD is a good read imo, heading into the Apr 12 ODAC.

http://www.fda.gov/downloads/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/Drugs/OncologicDrugsAdvisoryCommittee/UCM494785.pdf

http://www.fda.gov/AdvisoryCommittees/WhatsNew/default.htm

then again, Pazdur is going to be at the adcom, so that's a plus. but... idk. I don't like the actual voting question #2... I can interpret it so many different ways. And I don't like the ORR change which caused the drop from 100 to 30's back in Nov.

Hmm. What to do... what to do?
g

[gambler2075]

So this case of whether or not to go long CLVS here is a tough one... there are so many factors involved, I'm trying to weigh about 5-8 different ones. But here is an example of one factor:

So there appears to only be one voting question (Q2):

http://www.fda.gov/downloads/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/Drugs/OncologicDrugsAdvisoryCommittee/UCM494776.pdf

Now that question is a VOTE to see if the FDA decision should be delayed until Tiger-3 (finishes in 2018) or if FDA can decide before then.

That appears to be a setup for badness... or at least for no reaction. When I look at a binary decision and what it can do to a stock I like to have decisions that are asymmetric (and favorable). Here is an example. If a drug is possibly going to be lifted from a clinical hold in the next month, I feel like the possible outcomes are: A) It doesn't get lifted ... or B) It does get lifted. Now if option A doesn't happen on any given day, there is no effect on the price, because the drug company doesn't PR "Clinical hold on drug X was not lifted today" ... each day it WASN'T lifted. However, if it WAS lifted (B) then the price would jump up hugely. So the possible outcomes on a given day are either nothing, or a big positive.

That is an example of an asymmetrically favorable situation to be in, and when I can find those I try to get in them as much as possible.

Now, if you look at the voting question, it looks like the possible outcomes are that the committee votes:

A) YES, we need to delay until the results of Tiger-3 is out
or
B) NO, we should NOT delay, and let the FDA make a decision BEFORE Tiger-3 is out (i.e. BEFORE 2018)

Now looking at what would happen to the stock price in each situation, if option A happens, then the price would get crushed as the stock would effectively be rejected until 2018, when the Tiger-3 result finishes.

But if they vote option B, then it's almost like a non-result... So they would be voting that the FDA should decide before 2018.

Big whoop...

So what is the point of having an advisory committee to have all these experts in different fields coming in, and hundreds or thousands of man-hours of preparation... only to have the result be

"The FDA advisory committee voted 12-2 to NOT delay the FDA decision on rociletinib"

I mean, that is pointless.

So pointless, that the stock probably wouldn't do anything, because it doesn't really mean anything.

What moves the stock price would be a decision along the lines of

"The FDA advisory committee voted 12-2 that the risk/benefit profile for rociletinib in the EGFR-TKI T790M subset in NSCLC is favorable for approval"

So the discussion question (Q1 in the link above) DOES want the committee to discuss that, but if there is no VOTE on that, then it is mostly irrelevant.

All this being said... I have never seen an adcom that didn't MAKE A FREAKING DECISION or RECOMMENDATION on a drug. Why convene it at all? So will they change Q1 to a voting question? idk.

Anyway, this is just one issue I have been wrestling with. Since I don't want to type another 10 pages, I will leave the rest out.

g

[gambler2075]

Sold my CLVS at about 13.1 average from 15.3 buy in, 25K shares, -55,000$, on the negative adcom vote. To be honest I was afraid the stock would open at something like 8... but looks like the short covering and tutes prevented that from happening. Learned a few lessons on not holding through adcoms with certain characteristics (gonna leave it at that). That being said... looking at the risk/reward of the situation, it looks like the downside was mostly factored in, with the stock dropping less than 10% on a negative vote... whereas if it was positive, stock would have opened at probably nearly 25$, so it would have been a 60% gainer. Looking at it from that perspective, it wasn't that bad of a bet to take... but the safer play would of course have been to wait for the gap down and buy that.

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[gambler2075]

Ended up selling the rest of my TTPH today... ugh. Left about 100K$ on the table. Including this 55K$ above, made 169,000$ on the ~2 week trade.

g

I ended up re-buying 100k shares of TTPH yesterday at 4.699 from average of 5.399 sells... was waiting on buying another 50k below 4.5 but it never happened (so I didn't want to post about it, of course, in case anyone bought before me). The way it was trading over the past 2 day selloff was totally different than the way it traded on the way up to 6 (in the 2 days when it was leading up to 6)... but I felt it was just accumulation and shaking the weak hands out.

TTPH Needham conf was today, I do like how it is holding up after NOT announcing any FDA news... but it also has run up a ton so... idk. There were some changes to the way they talked about the impending FDA interaction compared to the last communications... so we will see.

g

[gambler2075]

Sold 90K shares of my TTPH at about 5.25, plus about 49,000$ from buying 2 days ago. Still feels like the bios are overbought, but we are at a critical time... break down from 285's on the IBB, or break on through to the other side.

Playing a little BK play (bought 100,000 shares of BTUUQ.PK) this morning at 0.626... was walking into the airport right as the market was opening and getting off supershuttle, trying desperately to put in orders to buy BTUUQ.PK... Was trading on my phone going through so the orders were not very finessed...



Just looking for a little bounce on the coal bk, was considering going in big (400-500k shares) but held off. I figured, looking at the past trading of Arch coal (now ACIIQ.PK) and seeing the BK bounce it had from about Jan 14-25 (14c to like 75c), it was a fairly reasonable play to play peabody's bk. Peabody has 10B ish in debt and 11B in assets, whereas Arch had more debts than assets. But IDK, it's not a very safe play at all but I am willing to gamble a little here. Currently trading at 82c on an end-of day spike so we will see if we gap and continue tomorrow or not. Also, the market cap of the co is TINY. I could practically buy up 5% of the company and so when a ton of trader money pours into a tiny co, it really moves (see EBIO and SNTA today for example).

This stock is a bankrupt stock. Period. This is a TRADE for me. I may sell a gap up at the open tomorrow, take my ~25,000$-30,000$ and never look back. This is only a small portion of my portfolio, as much as I am willing to risk on short-covering.

Anyway, tomorrow hopefully the bios start selling off again and more shorts are squeezed into covering on BTUUQ.PK. We will see.

g

p.s. I'd also like to award myself the most-screwed-up-trade-of-the-year (MSUTOTY) award to... myself... for this little gem. Made a few thousand off it yesterday and today RPRX hits like 3.40's and could have made a 225% profit and ~70,000$ if I had just held)... and of course I didn't so I made a 11% profit and 3K. Arggghhhhhhhh!



p.p.s. As an aside, today I tried using the gogoinflight wifi on my Alaska airlines flight... costs 11$ for a 30 minute session (which I used just near the end of the market day (from 3:30-4:00pm)... since I figured that was the key time to be trading. I could have sprung for the 49$ all day WIFI pass... but old frugal habits die hard and I actually debated whether it was worth it or not to pay the extra 30$ to be able to trade the entire flight rather than just the last 30 mins. In the end I decided it wasn't worth it, which is kinda ridiculous, I suppose, but ... old frugal habits die hard. I did spring for a 6$ beer to reward myself though.