Past AFFY stock holders

[KTP]

Long AFFY 1.05

AFFY trading at $1.60+ today

You are up $0.55 on your trade, grats!

[KTP]

AFFY skyrocketing now...sheez.

[kv968]

AFFY skyrocketing now...sheez.

And AFFY down 25% today on heavy volume. Definitely a roller coaster ride.

[gambler2075]

Wow. What a year. Blew up the portfolio in AFFY when the drug never came back to market... and portfolio massively recovered again when I bought $SPHS at 0.50-0.70's...

sold 40,000 shares premarket today at 3.80's, holding the vast majority for perhaps 7-10$. Should be an interesting few months IMO.

Note: this is not investment advice, just what I am doing. GLTA.

[gambler2075]

YTD performance approximately +189% (nearly tripled my account).

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, of course.
Still holding some $SPHS (made about 570,000$ on that trade, up about 150-200,000 unrealized profits on that one.) Should have sold it all on the date it had positive P3 results and was near 4$, would have made 1.5M$ on that.

Holding a decent sized position in THLD in the mid-high 50's...
2016 predictions: #1) $SPHS gets a partnership and hits 5$ sometime in 2016 (disclosure, still long partial position). #2) $THLD hits 1$ on some news in the next 3-5 months.

GLTA. DYODD. This is not investment advice, this is just what I am doing.

Happy holidays, everyone.
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[gambler2075]

I will also say that I am very interesting to see what kind of end of year tax-loss selling $THLD has... perhaps they all capitulated sub 50c, or maybe there is more to come. So many bios trading under cash... $SNTA, $BIOD, $MCUR, etc etc... there may be a nice January effect on those oversold bios, time will tell...

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[jamiesmaoneyadvice]

Personal financial advice for the masses pops up more and more across major new outlets, corporate websites and blogs. Broad spectrum articles can be helpful, but sometimes input from others with experience in similar situations proves to be more relevant. For those who don't have a financial advisor on speed dial, personal finance forums can be great resources. Forums provide a litany of advice in a relatively short time period, a boon to those looking for some quick feedback or advice online.

[gambler2075]

YTD performance approximately +189% (nearly tripled my account).

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, of course.
Still holding some $SPHS (made about 570,000$ on that trade, up about 150-200,000 unrealized profits on that one.) Should have sold it all on the date it had positive P3 results and was near 4$, would have made 1.5M$ on that.

Holding a decent sized position in THLD in the mid-high 50's...
2016 predictions: #1) $SPHS gets a partnership and hits 5$ sometime in 2016 (disclosure, still long partial position). #2) $THLD hits 1$ on some news in the next 3-5 months.

GLTA. DYODD. This is not investment advice, this is just what I am doing.

Happy holidays, everyone.
g

Wow. What bio-carnage this year... my THLD position took a huge hit, sold out -190,000$, made 124,000$ today on GBSN (bought 1M shares at 0.16, sold at 0.29ish, but then lost 13,000$ trading a 500K block of GBSN at 0.29, sold out at 0.265 ish), made about 45K$ on TTNP a week or two back. Added 130K shares SPHS today.

SPHS may be running due to my buying, but it was 1.78 on 12/31/15, and is now 2.34. As a result, my main portfolio (Etrade) is up 45% year to date. Really happy about that, despite the bio-carnage. Was also mainly due to my buying back 134,000 shares of SPHS at 1.53 or so, a week or 2 ago.

Anyway, looking forward to seeing what SPHS does going forward. It is hard to tell if my buying is moving it, or if it is really going to partner or go higher soon. They did guide that they would run out of money by april 2016, so either partner, buyout, or dilution.

Time will tell.
Note: This is not trading advice. Do your own due diligence.

g

p.s. I will say that the trading reminds me a bit of 2001 when I was a beginner/noob trader... and the 2008-9 timeframe as well. We are due for an oversold bounce here though, IMO. I also think that we probably saw THE BOTTOM for oil 2 days ago at the 26$/barrel price point. When bad news (for oil) like Iran pumping more, or the Saudis saying "we can pump forever" doesn't drive down the oil price, then bottom is in, or very close to in. Cramer also said oil could hit 10$, which is dumb, and IMO is bottom or close. I remember when oil was 146/barrel and JPM I think it was said it was going to 200... that was stupid and marked the top. We are at or very very very close to oil bottoming, and I would buy here if I were trading it. I see a sharp oil rally based on being oversold, to 35-40$ in the next 2 months.

p.p.s. I would also add that it is probably pretty dangerous to add SPHS at these levels (2.30s) after it was just 1.50's a week ago. Should probably pull back, maybe to 2$ support? I dunno. Or maybe back to that 1.80s level that held for a while.

[gambler2075]

I ended up selling my last 100K GBSN at 0.254 for another 1700. Total GBSN trade, +129K$.

http://www.bilderload.com/daten/gbsn125164IRJP.jpg

I will say I am surprised that SPHS is holding in the 2.20 range despite recently running up from 1.50's...

IMO that means that either good news is coming, or they are holding this up so they can dilute from higher. If this has positive P2 results (expected Feb) then IMO it gaps up to 3$+. If negative, it goes to 1$ IMO.

Still feels like the stock is overdue for a pullback to the 2$ range...

I also still feel that oil has bottomed at that 26$ range, and this retracement back down is normal. Time will tell. Would love to load up oil lower but I don't think its gonna happen.

g

[gambler2075]

As always, the above post is just my opinion. I have no formal financial qualifications. Do your own due diligence.

g

[gambler2075]

No position and this is not trading advice, but ZFGN here is stupid cheap at 6.75. Trading right around cash levels and IMO this will hit 12-15$ this year when FDA (likely) lifts clinical hold on beloranib for PWS.

Later this quarter obesity results are coming and the REMS submission for belo.

Oh and I think oil bottomed when I said... at 26$.

Also, does anyone read these threads? nobody responds to anything I post. Maybe there is no point in posting.

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[gambler2075]

Ouch. Tough day for me yesterday, long CMRX... lost 101,000$ over the weekend (buying friday and selling monday). Probably one of the worst 5 days I have ever had trading...



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[gambler2075]

$SPHS back to 1.80's... definitely annoying me but I am still holding my position. Hopefully the bios (IBB) bounces off of 240, the double bottom point from feb. I think there is going to be huge news (hopefully good) for $SPHS in the next 2 weeks max, but bad news (dilution) would put the PPS to 50c. Hopefully the management and drug are as good as I think they are. Partnership would put the pps somewhere around 5$ IMO, depending on terms.

g

Other stocks of note: CPXX, VRX. Watching VRX for possible entry if it gaps down massively to like 15$. May not happen.

[gambler2075]

I will also say that, judging by their past 2 years dates they released the annual financials, it was Mar 10 and Mar 14th, I believe.

I agree with some posters on stocktwits that they are working on something. IMO, if they announced annual financials without a partnership, the stock price would get crushed as people would be afraid that they would need a big dilution to raise money. If you listen to the last (Feb 9) CC, they talked about looking for a partnership. So either they are:

1) delusional about how good the drug is and really believe they will partner but are wrong

OR

2) big pharma knows the drug is good but are going to wait until they are running out of money by end of april, then big pharma will buy the drug for pennies on the dollar

OR

3) they are flat out lying about the fact that they think they can get a partnership (I tend to trust the management alot more than I do NYMX)

OR

4) they will partner.

Since they are not an accelerated filer, financials are due on Mar 31, so *IF* they partner, I would expect that to happen before then.

So I guess some time in the next 2 weeks they will announce news of hopefully a partnership. Also, most partnership agreements come on a monday so hopefully the 21st is the big day

Remember however, if they dilute and destroy shareholders, the pps drops to like 30-50c.

g
p.s. GL, this is not investment advice. I have no formal financial qualifications.

[gambler2075]

Looks like SPHS now is funded til September... the good news is that they are probably not going to be diluting anytime soon... the bad news is that they probably aren't going to be partnering anytime soon. IMO they will eventually partner, but it may not be for a couple of months.

I also like TTPH going into their FDA decision on eravacycline, which should be imminent. FDA is either going to let them file an NDA for cIAI (IV only) or tell them they need another trial (which they are planning on... the IV only cUTI trial). If the FDA gives them the green light to file for IV/cIAI, I would estimate the pps would hit 10$. If the FDA tells them they need to do another trial, then probably hits 3$. IMO, the risk/reward is worth it, especially given the way (IMO) FDA is trying to encourage antibiotic development with the GAIN act, giving companies QIDP, 10 by 20 (10 new antibiotics by 2020)... etc. I bought a sizable (sizeable?) position in TTPH at 4.01. However, not everyone is bullish on TTPH... several antibiotic blogs I follow are estimating they will need another trial, such as this one:

http://allphasepharma.com/dir/2015/09/24/1958/after-icaac-some-more-thoughts-on-eravacycline-in-cuti-and-ignite-2/

However, there are analysts (back in sep) who came out saying they thought TTPH might get the green light on NDA in cIAI only (of course the PPS was back at 10$ then)...

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Guggenheim+Cuts+Price+Target+on+Tetraphase+Pharma+(TTPH)+Following+Disappointing+cUTI+Data./10876391.html

g

p.s. As always, this is not investment advice and I have no formal financial qualifications. This is only what I am doing. DYODD.