Past AFFY stock holders

[gambler2075]

SUNEQ needs to break through that 0.25 point... it's another BK play, went long earlier, still up at this point... we will see, probably selling today.

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p.s. sold my BTUUQ WAAAY too early. LOL. made like 7K$, left 30K$ on the table. doh!

[gambler2075]

So SRPT has an adcom monday (shares will be halted). I personally think there is a decent chance of a positive adcom vote and a pps gap up to 25-30. If negative vote, pps drops to maybe 6?

I was going to go in at end of day, hoping they wouldn't release the voting questions til this weekend... but of course they did (huge spike mid-day).

I had bought 30k shares at 11.3 average yesterday, sold at like 11.4, +3000$. LOL. Totally missed out.

Going to continue holding my SUNEQ... although it didn't make it past that 0.25 mark. Oh well.

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[gambler2075]

So SRPT has an adcom monday (shares will be halted). I personally think there is a decent chance of a positive adcom vote and a pps gap up to 25-30. If negative vote, pps drops to maybe 6?

I was going to go in at end of day, hoping they wouldn't release the voting questions til this weekend... but of course they did (huge spike mid-day).

I had bought 30k shares at 11.3 average yesterday, sold at like 11.4, +3000$. LOL. Totally missed out.

Going to continue holding my SUNEQ... although it didn't make it past that 0.25 mark. Oh well.

g

Essentially... the plan for SUNEQ is to hope that sentiment changes to people hoping that common shares are not going to get cancelled. Assets are like 20B, Liabilities are like 16B... so hopefully, if the sentiment is that there could be some assets left over for the common shareholders, then there would be a decent spike.

In the end, however, this is a bankruptcy play, and I expect common stock to trade at 0. I also will say that I will sell my position at first sign of weakness... caveat emptor. This is not trading advice. This is just what I am doing. I make no guarantee I will update people when I sell.

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[gambler2075]

So SRPT has an adcom monday (shares will be halted). I personally think there is a decent chance of a positive adcom vote and a pps gap up to 25-30. If negative vote, pps drops to maybe 6?

I was going to go in at end of day, hoping they wouldn't release the voting questions til this weekend... but of course they did (huge spike mid-day).

I had bought 30k shares at 11.3 average yesterday, sold at like 11.4, +3000$. LOL. Totally missed out.

Going to continue holding my SUNEQ... although it didn't make it past that 0.25 mark. Oh well.

g

Monday (i.e. the SRPT adcom) is basically the superbowl of biotech trading. I think most biotech traders equate it to the most important biotech event of the year. Yes, BMRN already had drisa rejected on their adcom but they had more nephro side effects.

I was planning on holding ~30k shares through the committee (tomorrow) but the pps ran up before I could buy back. I was planning on buying back end of day after I sold my SUNEQ but since SRPT ran away from me, the risk/reward at the 15$ level was completely different than the r/r at the 11$ level, so I decided to stay in SUNEQ. I had really thought the briefing doc voting questions would not come out until this weekend, but alas... they came out early and caused the price to spike.

Here's an article by AF on SRPT:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13542139/1/an-investors-guide-to-sarepta-s-eteplirsen-fda-advisory-panel-meeting.html

With regards to SUNEQ, some news coming out over the weekend could cause a small spike... but looking at RJETQ and ACIIQ, both spiked 300-400% from their lows... BTUUQ is at 100% already, and IMO solar is a much better BK bounce play than coal. But... we will see. Once again, this is not trading advice, it is only my random thoughts. Tomorrow will be very telling... either the stock bleeds back down to 0.15 levels or it runs up to 0.25+ IMO. This is only a TRADE. Not an investment. It is a bankrupt company. Period.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/investors-interested-in-acquiring-stake-in-company-sunedison-india/articleshow/51964602.cms

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/apr/22/sunedison-city/

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[gambler2075]

Wow. The SRPT Adcom is INTENSE. Farkas from the FDA is presenting anti-SRPT data and audience members are smirking and being disrespectful... FDA panel is getting irked.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13541457/1/sarepta-therapeutics-fda-panel-live-blog.html

still no position in SRPT. Although I think it gets approved.
Still long SUNEQ

Stream:

http://fda.yorkcast.com/webcast/Play/a6b3b94c459a4dcbb617a954382d678a1d

[gambler2075]

The SRPT adcom has such high drama... always have to remember that as a trader money is far less important than the outcome of this adcom for patients and families with DMD.

Heavy stuff...

https://twitter.com/jennmcnary/status/724660270807814146/photo/1

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[gambler2075]

Sold 90K shares of my TTPH at about 5.25, plus about 49,000$ from buying 2 days ago. Still feels like the bios are overbought, but we are at a critical time... break down from 285's on the IBB, or break on through to the other side.

Playing a little BK play (bought 100,000 shares of BTUUQ.PK) this morning at 0.626... was walking into the airport right as the market was opening and getting off supershuttle, trying desperately to put in orders to buy BTUUQ.PK... Was trading on my phone going through so the orders were not very finessed...



Just looking for a little bounce on the coal bk, was considering going in big (400-500k shares) but held off. I figured, looking at the past trading of Arch coal (now ACIIQ.PK) and seeing the BK bounce it had from about Jan 14-25 (14c to like 75c), it was a fairly reasonable play to play peabody's bk. Peabody has 10B ish in debt and 11B in assets, whereas Arch had more debts than assets. But IDK, it's not a very safe play at all but I am willing to gamble a little here. Currently trading at 82c on an end-of day spike so we will see if we gap and continue tomorrow or not. Also, the market cap of the co is TINY. I could practically buy up 5% of the company and so when a ton of trader money pours into a tiny co, it really moves (see EBIO and SNTA today for example).

This stock is a bankrupt stock. Period. This is a TRADE for me. I may sell a gap up at the open tomorrow, take my ~25,000$-30,000$ and never look back. This is only a small portion of my portfolio, as much as I am willing to risk on short-covering.

Anyway, tomorrow hopefully the bios start selling off again and more shorts are squeezed into covering on BTUUQ.PK. We will see.

g

p.s. I'd also like to award myself the most-screwed-up-trade-of-the-year (MSUTOTY) award to... myself... for this little gem. Made a few thousand off it yesterday and today RPRX hits like 3.40's and could have made a 225% profit and ~70,000$ if I had just held)... and of course I didn't so I made a 11% profit and 3K. Arggghhhhhhhh!



p.p.s. As an aside, today I tried using the gogoinflight wifi on my Alaska airlines flight... costs 11$ for a 30 minute session (which I used just near the end of the market day (from 3:30-4:00pm)... since I figured that was the key time to be trading. I could have sprung for the 49$ all day WIFI pass... but old frugal habits die hard and I actually debated whether it was worth it or not to pay the extra 30$ to be able to trade the entire flight rather than just the last 30 mins. In the end I decided it wasn't worth it, which is kinda ridiculous, I suppose, but ... old frugal habits die hard. I did spring for a 6$ beer to reward myself though.

IMO SUNEQ holding up on relative strength with BTUUQ... alas, I sold my 100k shares at 0.70 from 0.62 buy. LOL. Hitting 1.56 now. Left 80,000$ on the table.

With SUNEQ it may take a day or two but I hope it runs up more. This is not trading advice. Period. This is a TRADE.

[gambler2075]

I will also add that BTUUQ as a trade is DONE. period. IMO risk/reward is overwhelmingly against buying or holding at 1.73.

[gambler2075]

Long srpt 30k at 8.05. Still holding suneq. Snowboarding all day at Mammoth so limited posting and Internet access from the lift #firstworldproblems

[gambler2075]

Still holding both suneq and srpt. Will delete this message at end of day or two

Update: 1023am holding 30k srpt still... up 90,000 from this am as I bought at 8.05. Holding all suneq, 0.204 ave

Update: 621am. I liked the srpt price action, flagging at 11, and holding that yesterday, which is why I held. Looking for continuation but... Probably selling today. Probably giving suneq a few more days and holding...

Update: 639am: puked up my shares of srpt probably at low of day, 30,000 in at 8.05, out 10.79, plus about 80,000$. Now it probably goes to 12.5. Oh well. At the end of the day I think there is a good chance this gets rejected. But also a 30% chance Woodcock overturns the panel vote since the AA vote was essentially 7-6 against, since aa approval doesn't need as strong evidence as regular approval (the 7-3 vote against)

[gambler2075]

Hoping the bios pullback a bit. With SRPT it was a good trade, glad I didn't puke up shares at 9 from my 8 buy... could it go up? possibly. Is there going to be another trading opportunity before the actual vote on May 26? I think so. But I am staying on the sidelines for now.

So a bit of rationale of my not posting my plans until I loaded... I see people reading this blog although nobody else is posting, and I don't want to compete with people for shares when there aren't that many around... look at my trades below when I was trying to buy SRPT. Yes, I was trading on my phone in bed (didn't want to wake my snowboarding buddies up at 430 am)... but there were just not alot of share for me to buy in pre-pre market (730am (NY time)). So if I had posted all my thoughts then I could be fighting with people for shares I assume, and I don't want people buying 100K$ or 200K$ worth of shares and moving the price away from me. Oh also ended up buying at average of 8.002, selling at 10.79, for 83,000$ in the 1-2 day trade. Sweet. I figure I'll post pics if I make or lose more than 50K$ on a trade as a rule. Or if I miss out big on a trade, as above with RPRX and a bunch of others. This trade was in my SEP account... so I have limitations on when I can buy and sell (trades have to clear).

As far as the fundamental analysis of SRPT... well, it is an interesting situation. So I believe the retail masses are not factoring the chances of Woodcock overruling the adcom, since the vote was close. PTCT, BMRN, SRPT are the heavy hitters in the DMD space. Is there a chance of an early approval? I'd say 5%. Is there a chance of a pre-PDUFA (May 26 I believe) run? I would say so. Should be an interesting one to watch for sure. At these levels I am not interested. I would also say that... if the PPS for SRPT was in the 10.5-11 range BEFORE the adcom, and didn't have that runup, I would have bought, and lost about 60k$ if I sold at 8 in the morning. If I had held from 11 down to 8. then sold at 11 I would be flat... but it is psychologically much tougher to do that than buy in at 8 and let it ride. So I was fortunate it did run up prior to the adcom.



Still boarding tomorrow, I think SUNEQ is firming up. I am not associated with this guy, but agree with most of his points... although he left out alot of info IMO. He is looking at SUNEQ as a purely technical trade tho.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_hAbQ8IIbE

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[gambler2075]

So since this thread seems to be my personal monologue, I will share this video. As I said, I am not affiliated with his group, but I think he makes some very, very good points.

Look... I've had some successes on this thread. But some failures too. The past bunch of trades have been pretty good. But who knows... will I go back to my old ways where I get greedy and over-allocate again? I need to avoid that. I have a good other "real" job, which pays well into the 6 figures so I have that as a back up.

But it is probably more important to share my trading story... as I didn't just waltz in here and start buying low and selling high. I've traded since 2001, probably at least full time (40 hours per week). During that time, I would say that at the beginning, I blew up many accounts, back when 10,000$ was a huge amount of money to me. I am not a retiree. I think retirees getting into trading is probably the worst thing that anyone can do because I think that they are virtually guaranteed to blow up their account and lose it all. Let's say someone bought CMRX at 35 or SQNM way back when at 15 and it had some bad news and gapped down to like 7 (CMRX) or 3 (SQNM in 2009)... most people lack the self-control to keep from over-allocating, and sometimes people go in on margin and leverage their trades, and... when that happens to a retiree... well... they could lose their entire retirement. Happened to a dentist/family friend of mine, who still has to keep working way past retirement. I was fortunate that these (in retrospect) emotional trading decisions happened well before I had a chance to recover. A trader hopefully gets to a point where his wins or losses don't really affect him. This past trade of 80K$? yeah, it was great, but time to move on. Loss of 55,000$ on CLVS? oh well. Until someone can get to that point in trading, they will be subject to emotional loss of control which could ruin them. Anyway... back to those gap downs yes, I traded both of those... but most people... bought before and were crushed.

I would say the VAST majority of people should either prepare to allocate 5+ years of their lives, 40 hours per week at LEAST, and be prepared to lose everything at least 3 times... before they have a chance of making any money. The vast majority of people don't have the chance to spend that much time and/or don't have the temperament to succeed.

I will also say that I have benefitted greatly from a professional trader that is much better than me, and is my mentor of sorts... I've communicated with him basically for over 10 years during trading hours. He helps me with the trading aspect, and given my sci/medical background, I do the DD on the biotechs.

I think the vast majority of people who do not have access to 1) a professional trader 2) MD/PhD background to help them in bios or 3) 5 years of full-time hours

should probably not trade. Especially if it is money you can't afford to lose. I will also say that part of the reason for my posting this thread is that I find it pretty much insulting that people who have no understanding about trading feel like they can say "nobody can trade" just because they tried and failed. Maybe it makes them feel a bit better. I don't know. But I know many pro traders who do very, very well... having 20-50K$ days are nothing to them... and for someone who has no idea about trading say that they cannot exist is laughable.

Anyway. Here's the video:

https://claytrader.com/videos/losing-80000/

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[gambler2075]

Srpt hitting low 14s this morning.... left 100k on the table by selling yesterday. Ugh...

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[gambler2075]

Update: 639am: puked up my shares of srpt probably at low of day, 30,000 in at 8.05, out 10.79, plus about 80,000$. Now it probably goes to 12.5. Oh well. At the end of the day I think there is a good chance this gets rejected. But also a 30% chance Woodcock overturns the panel vote since the AA vote was essentially 7-6 against, since aa approval doesn't need as strong evidence as regular approval (the 7-3 vote against)

As I said (and AF reiterated)... the AA vote is really the one that counts, and that was 7-6 and not the 7-3 against which the media was trumpeting. The retail masses thought it was 7-3 against, but in reality, it was 7-6 against. AF did post an article about this, which IMO was responsible for much of the huge move on the 28th.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13548113/1/how-sarepta-can-secure-speedy-fda-drug-approval-despite-a-negative-panel-vote.html

In other news, GILD and IBB crushed... and the market is tanking. IMO, we are right at the cusp of a major pullback. Usually I see these ridiculous bio blowoffs (EBIO, PRGN today, OGXI... all the nano-cap bios running up ridiculously. That usually marks the end of the market run up.

I'd love to see the market pull back substantially (DOW maybe 16,000?) over the next 3-6 months. Not saying its gonna happen but since IBB seems to not have been able to break out through that 285 point and hold above it, hopefully the bios get crushed back down and I can rebuy a bunch of them.

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[gambler2075]

Sold 130,000 shares of SUNEQ, 0.23 ish, +3012$ heheh