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  • #91
    Full disclosure... down 15K$ on AFFY YTD, including my 30K loss when it gapped down to 1's but also including my trades the day it gapped down 80%+ and I bought at 2.30's early premarket...



    +79K$ on TTNP



    g

    p.s. after trading pretty much full-time for 12 years, pretty much exclusively biotechs, I have realized that trading is all about minimizing risk exposure while taking calculated risks. I wouldn't expect new traders to be able to trade with a positive expectancy until at least 5 years of full-time trading, and after blowing up (losing all their money) at least several times. Heck, even now I don't know if I will ever fully overcome my trading weaknesses, which is why I took out 1/4M$ to pay off my med school debt, which is money that the stock market can never take back.

    That being said, I would highly, highly advise against anyone trying to trade individual stocks unless they are willing to devote at least 5 years, full-time (trading or researching stocks at least 60-80hrs per week, as I did). The odds are so stacked against the individual retail trader that it is at least initially hopeless. I would also say that you would have to be willing to lose all your money time and time again, for those first 5 years. Fortunately for me, I got through that phase of losing all my money back when 10K$ was alot of money to me... and now that I play with larger amounts, I am a bit more conservative.

    Also, as people say, time and time again, do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. If you are trading with 300K$ and you are 65 and hoping to use that money for retirement, if you lose, you are destroyed. As I am in my 30's and trading those amounts, if I lose my money I still have a fairly well paying job to fall back on, and could financially recover from that. I know too many people who were beginning traders in their 50's-60's who lost it all... their retirement, and even some who owed money as they were in on margin when a biopharma got crushed.

    Anyway, enough rambling. One last thing that always gets my goat is the supposed adage that "nobody can beat the markets... nobody can trade profitably". I know many traders much better than me who have been trading as their sole source of income for 15-20 years+. I suppose that saying is propagated in order to keep new traders from losing money? I agree that I do not know any new traders (less than 5 years of full-time experience) that can trade profitably and consistently. And I also know that most people cannot afford to devote as much time to trading as successful traders have (at least 10,000 hours over the past 12 years, probably closer to 20K hrs) but as a blanket statement it always bothered me.

    Anyway... back to your regularly scheduled talk about index funds.

    g

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    • #92
      They got me to chase Daffy... -6000$ ... well played MGM's.

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      • #93
        Mm's... not MGM's... darn autocorrect...

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        • #94
          Affy not daffy ... argh!

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          • #95
            AFFY is such an interesting play here... on the one hand, if there is no BK, and they say anything from "we figured out what is causing the deaths and it is not Omontys" to "We are putting the drug back on the market with a black box warning" then the PPS triples practically instantly and the price goes to 4...

            On the other hand, if Takeda says they are giving the rights back to AFFY, then the PPS goes to like 75 cents... or if they declare BK then the PPS goes to 50c...

            I have found that when companies threaten that they might declare BK, then it is prudent to sit back and see if they do declare it, then reassess and see if you can pick up the pieces. It will be interesting to see the latest short interest which should come out any day now:



            because if you note, the massive increase in short interest from 7.9M to 13M shares came on March 15, while the latest huge drop came after that, on Mar 19th.

            Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens with AFFY... fascinating stuff. Do they declare BK and (imo) present a buying opportunity (for myself, note this is not trading advice) or do they not declare BK and triple. Hmmm...

            Anyway...

            In other news, DCTH still rocking... wish I bought at 1.67 like my trading buddy... 1.92 now... and THLD looks like it bottomed yesterday at the close. Oh well.

            Off to the slopes, final day of the season today.
            g

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            • #96
              IMO with 13M+ shares short (who knows what the latest interest is) and 37M shares outstanding, say, about 35% short, there are alot of people betting that the next shoe to drop will be bad. (On a side note, are shoes dropping ever good? who knows how many legs AFFY has... I thought there would only be two shoes to drop (first that day it went to like 11 and then closed up at like 15 on fresenius news (#1), then the day it gapped down to 2's (#2) and the day it gapped down to 1's (#3))

              Maybe AFFY has 4 legs and the 4th shoe to drop comes with a BK notice... lol.

              Anyway, with extreme negativity comes extreme volatility, usually, at some point, so it will be fun to watch.

              no psn in AFFY currently...
              g

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              • #97
                DCTH - I put in a sell order last night at $1.94 trying not to be greedy and offset APPA losses. Not that I sold APPA - I added for more of a long-term play. Of course DCTH hit $1.93 today and has been treading ever since. Thought about selling the April $2 calls instead at .11 each, but I just feel like that isn't a fair risk premium and would rather sell and re-buy on a dip.

                AFFY just gives me anxiety. I'll be really curious to see if they file the BK.

                Originally posted by gambler2075 View Post
                AFFY is such an interesting play here... on the one hand, if there is no BK, and they say anything from "we figured out what is causing the deaths and it is not Omontys" to "We are putting the drug back on the market with a black box warning" then the PPS triples practically instantly and the price goes to 4...

                On the other hand, if Takeda says they are giving the rights back to AFFY, then the PPS goes to like 75 cents... or if they declare BK then the PPS goes to 50c...

                I have found that when companies threaten that they might declare BK, then it is prudent to sit back and see if they do declare it, then reassess and see if you can pick up the pieces. It will be interesting to see the latest short interest which should come out any day now:



                because if you note, the massive increase in short interest from 7.9M to 13M shares came on March 15, while the latest huge drop came after that, on Mar 19th.

                Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens with AFFY... fascinating stuff. Do they declare BK and (imo) present a buying opportunity (for myself, note this is not trading advice) or do they not declare BK and triple. Hmmm...

                Anyway...

                In other news, DCTH still rocking... wish I bought at 1.67 like my trading buddy... 1.92 now... and THLD looks like it bottomed yesterday at the close. Oh well.

                Off to the slopes, final day of the season today.
                g

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                • #98
                  Originally posted by gambler2075 View Post
                  Just hit 0.75 exactly...
                  ...and 1.00$ today... should have just held my 50K shares at 0.54... argh.

                  g

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                  • #99
                    Forgot to add that if AFFY can re-negotiate terms with Takeda, or have any PR of any action that means that it can avoid BK, it will likely jump 50%...

                    Fun stuff... AFFY 1.15 by 1.16...

                    g

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                    • No position now and not going to take one, but I think we have a short-term bottom in AFFY at 1.14 by 1.15...

                      We will see.

                      DCTH also may be worth a re-buy after this pullback. 1.77 by 1.78.

                      No position in either and this is not trading advice.
                      g

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                      • Originally posted by gambler2075 View Post

                        +79K$ on TTNP



                        g
                        Waiting on TTNP to get a possible (probable?) 3 month delay notice from the FDA. IMO that would present a buying opportunity on the gap down.

                        1.52 now (sold at 1.89)

                        g

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                        • Originally posted by gambler2075 View Post
                          No position now and not going to take one, but I think we have a short-term bottom in AFFY at 1.14 by 1.15...

                          We will see.

                          DCTH also may be worth a re-buy after this pullback. 1.77 by 1.78.

                          No position in either and this is not trading advice.
                          g
                          Re-buying at $1.75 for DCTH; wish I would've put my trigger in at $1.93 yesterday instead of $1.94.

                          Added IMMU at $2.60

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                          • Originally posted by gambler2075 View Post
                            No position now and not going to take one, but I think we have a short-term bottom in AFFY at 1.14 by 1.15...

                            We will see.

                            DCTH also may be worth a re-buy after this pullback. 1.77 by 1.78.

                            No position in either and this is not trading advice.
                            g
                            Definitely don't like how AFFY is trading... 1.14 by 1.15... this may go to 1.

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                            • CBMX tiny tiny market cap... may run... be very careful though.

                              g

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                              • Originally posted by gambler2075 View Post
                                CBMX tiny tiny market cap... may run... be very careful though.

                                g
                                Nope, sold +1500...

                                Done trading for today.

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