market speculation for October

[gambler2075]

Soft CRL released by arna... imo worse than this was already priced in... gap to 2.15 Monday imo.

[gambler2075]

ARNA: After spending half the weekend reading the sentiment of the articles and messageboards out there, I am retracting my prediction of 2.15 as the opening price. If there is anything I have learned in my years of biopharma trading, it is that the markets can get to greater extremes of fear and greed than one would expect.

So, it should be fascinating to see the open tomorrow morning.

g

[KTP]

I think you were too low with your $2.15 prediction.

$2.50 to $3 tommorow based on my limited reading of the arna news.

[gambler2075]

I think you were too low with your $2.15 prediction.

$2.50 to $3 tommorow based on my limited reading of the arna news.

I actually meant the other way... the 2.15 is too high.

The bashers and the analysts are absolutely going to town on ARNA... so we will see what happens in 7 hours.

Yahoo! Message Boards - Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

...just remember a couple of things

1) The stock is not trading at 8$ any more... and people have been expecting the 'rejection' for months

2) Bashers and analysts downgrading or upgrading a stock have an agenda most of the time.

however

3) The market can remain irrational for longer than you expect.

g

p.s. I expect to see some downgrades tomorrow morning...

[gambler2075]

So, it should be fascinating to see the open tomorrow morning.

g

of course by "open" I mean all the premarket trading starting at 8:00am... and how the PPS reacts to the 8:30am conf call, and of course the regular trading hour open. Just watching this epic battle between the shorts and the longs is fascinating.

g

[KTP]

Well, maybe...

I certainly have not been tracking Arna like you have.

If somehow it tanks tommorow and you can get in at $1.10 a share or something, then maybe it would bounce back to your $2.10 or whatever later in the week.

They will attempt another shot at the FDA approval...looks like they have cash for a few months expenses at least, and the stock will have another shot at $3 or $4. If they lose that, then it will go to zilch pretty fast.

I will live vicariously through your bets on this one.

[gambler2075]

I will live vicariously through your bets on this one.

or die by them

Anyway, off to sleep, back at 730am ish...

g

[gambler2075]

Had bought 95k shares premarket at 1.60... got greedy and sold 78k shares at 1.685, plus 6500...

[KTP]

nice little ARNA play...I had no idea you were going to go that many shares.

microsoft keeps getting downgraded, but I view this as good news. The time to buy is when everyone is negative, all doom and gloom. My hopes of a positive return are getting higher.

[gambler2075]

nice little ARNA play...I had no idea you were going to go that many shares.

microsoft keeps getting downgraded, but I view this as good news. The time to buy is when everyone is negative, all doom and gloom. My hopes of a positive return are getting higher.

Thanks. I should have been a little less greedy and sold earlier... Considering that I was up ~20,000$ in 30 minutes, I should have taken my profits and been happy... BUT NO!!! I tried holding out for one last push and couldn't press the sell button. Ended up "losing" (not making) another 10,000$ because I was greedy.

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/5506/201010arna.jpg

So far up 20K$ in the past 2-3 trading days on ARNA. Still holding 18K shares from 1.59, so I guess I am up 1.5K on that. Will probably bail sooner or later on that.

Essentially, in my initial stages of trading I used to think that it was enough to do deep DD and find what the market is mispricing. But I realized that it doesn't really matter what the reality of the situation is, but it matters more what people think. And if people think that a stock like CHTP is fairly valued at 3$, then it will trade at 3$. Even if you know it is going to have good phase 3 results and will be at 6$ in a month, it doesn't matter. All that matters is what people believe.

The next stage of my trading was when I started factoring that in... Knowing that I had made correct trading decisions, but also knowing that the vast majority of retail traders have no idea what they are doing, and then estimating the amount of time it would take for them to realize their mistakes. Usually was a bit longer than I had thought. So now I basically buy stocks not when I know they are undervalued, but right when I think people are going to realize that they were undervalued... which is often days after it is obvious that the market is mispricing something.

Your MSFT calls are hanging in there, haven't decayed TOO MUCH... but remember that time is your enemy when you play with calls.

g

[KTP]

Well, it looks like Arna is doing 1.69 after hours, so your 1.59 shares aren't bad.

As to microsoft, ya it is going to all ride on earnings. I didn't expect the whole world to be quite such apple fan boys with such vigor. According to the analysts, we will all be using ipads next year. I haven't tried one yet, but if it doesn't have at least a 15 inch screen and a full keyboard I will not be happy.

The whole market is starting to feel A LOT like 2000 all over again.

[gambler2075]

The whole market is starting to feel A LOT like 2000 all over again.

I was thinking about this, and I think there is alot of BORSON (buy on rumor sell on news) going on into QE2... what is that, early nov? so maybe we run up into that, and then everyone gets disappointed and they run the stocks back down.

But I know I am not that good in predicting broader market moves, so I wouldn't try to play off that. However, what I have tried to learn how to do is to analyze the sentiment in a specific stock, and see when it has reached an extreme, and then position myself properly (short or long, depending) in order to capitalize on the change in sentiment. Fortunately, those types of moves happen pretty much independently of the overall market, so I don't really care what the broader markets are doing.

g

[gambler2075]

Well, it looks like Arna is doing 1.69 after hours, so your 1.59 shares aren't bad.

Actually put a limit sell order in After hours for the last 17K shares... sold all of them, for + another 1600$.

Now I don't feel so bad about spending like 75$ at six flags this weekend (15$ for panda express!!! )

g

[KTP]

You seem to make $5,000+ a week on trades....why do you bother working???

Or perhaps you are not mentioning a few bad weeks you have had?

I will be happy just to get one good trade.

[gambler2075]

You seem to make $5,000+ a week on trades....why do you bother working???

Or perhaps you are not mentioning a few bad weeks you have had?

I will be happy just to get one good trade.

I guess I am guilty of not mentioning EVERY single trade, but I have had more winners than losers.

In my smaller account, I am up ~150K$ this year... but the reason I am not quitting my real job is several fold...

1) Having a 'real' job makes me a better swingtrader... My style requires patience with my swingtrades, and if I did not have a guaranteed income, then it would change the psychology of my trades.

2) It seems like a total waste to give up 11 years of education after high school (college, med school, residency) to become a trader. Plus trading is not guaranteed. Absolutely you are only as good as your last hundred trades...

My point of coming on this MB in the first place was to show that the people that say that nobody can beat the market are basing that statement on incomplete information. I'm not sure if that is because people just have never seen a decent trader, or if it is because they tried and failed, or what, but imo it is a bit presumptuous to jump to that conclusion, just because everyone says it.

I am not citing myself as an example... there are a few professional traders I know who could seriously out-trade me in a daytrading competition. To say that trading is absolutely impossible is ludicrous, seeing how they have made money for a lifetime while trading.

As I have posted before, my trading account didn't really take off until a couple of years ago... and my multi-thousands of percent gained over the past 2 years were starting from a 10K$ account value. Remember that 2008 was probably my fifth or sixth year trading, with probably a thousand trades under my belt. As an aside, I would not feel like I had 'made it' trading until my account was worth about 5M$ and I took out enough and put it away safely. So it is silly to give up a stable, well-paying job, for trading, when I can do both at the same time.

http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/818/20101025ytd.jpg

2009 results from my smaller account (remember my account was much, much, much smaller (it was only 10K$ near the end or 2008)

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/3268/2009ytdetrade.jpg

g

p.s. Also remember that I had to pay a relatively large amount of my profits in taxes... This seriously lowered the amount of capital I had to trade with. I paid almost 100,000$ in taxes just from daytrading profits last year, which is one less reason for non-traders to hate daytraders, I guess...