market speculation for October

[Slug]

Do you follow a few stocks that you "get to know" over time in terms of their trading or do you use a market cap limitation and watch a basket looking for movement? Sorry, curious day for me.

[gambler2075]

Do you follow a few stocks that you "get to know" over time in terms of their trading or do you use a market cap limitation and watch a basket looking for movement? Sorry, curious day for me.

I try to know about probably a hundred or so biotechs in general, and about 10-15 that I know in detail, as far as upcoming catalysts and sentiment. That way, when I see a move start to happen I can figure out what is likely causing it and how far it is likely to go. Often times I am early in my sells but it is what has been working for me.

For example, yesterday I had loaded up on 110K shares of ALXA at 1.42 when I saw it start to move. Unfortunately, I took profits early at 1.49, for +8000$ but the idea was correct.

So far this year (in the first 2 weeks), I have closed out 4 positions for just over 50,000$ profit with my AFFY (+41,700), ALXA (+8300), AVNR (+8000) and LEDS (-7000). Also have open positions that are up 40,000$ so far this year. I will probably close them out somewhat soon.

g

[gambler2075]

Would you jump back in if it drops down again, like the mid or low $6 range?

BTW, rebought 40K shares at 7.06 average that I had sold at 7.93, saving about 33K$

may flip for a quarter or two... we'll see. I'd really like this to get back under 7 so I can add another 40K shares, but I am not sure it will hit my 6.8 target. I don't expect this to do much for an eternity (like a month or so) so I am putting most of my money elsewhere for now.

g

[Slug]

Wow LEDS got killed. AVNR looks pretty flat lately but there is some intra-day volatility. I'll watch for AFFY to see if it dips in the next week or 2. Maybe I'll pick up at $6.81

I try to know about probably a hundred or so biotechs in general, and about 10-15 that I know in detail, as far as upcoming catalysts and sentiment. That way, when I see a move start to happen I can figure out what is likely causing it and how far it is likely to go. Often times I am early in my sells but it is what has been working for me.

For example, yesterday I had loaded up on 110K shares of ALXA at 1.42 when I saw it start to move. Unfortunately, I took profits early at 1.49, for +8000$ but the idea was correct.

So far this year (in the first 2 weeks), I have closed out 4 positions for just over 50,000$ profit with my AFFY (+41,700), ALXA (+8300), AVNR (+8000) and LEDS (-7000). Also have open positions that are up 40,000$ so far this year. I will probably close them out somewhat soon.

g

[gambler2075]

Wow LEDS got killed. AVNR looks pretty flat lately but there is some intra-day volatility. I'll watch for AFFY to see if it dips in the next week or 2. Maybe I'll pick up at $6.81

AVNR has a catalyst in Feb 2011 (the launch of Neudexta). I'd expect some hype around that, and maybe a runup til the mid 5's to allow those that diluted at 4.40 to dump their shares... but I am waiting for a pullback before that. ALXA has the FDA response to their CRL in the next month (hence the breakout). Also the chart was shaping up beautifully when I bought a couple of days ago. AFFY the next event is the NDA submission in Q2 2011... but it is also oversold from 8.50 down to 6.90's so that changes things a bit. Still, AFFY has this habit of taking a couple to a few weeks to do anything so I wouldn't be surprised if nothing happens for that period of time. Hopefully it will pull back to 6.80 and I will be able to really load up.

g

[Slug]

AVNR has a catalyst in Feb 2011 (the launch of Neudexta). I'd expect some hype around that, and maybe a runup til the mid 5's to allow those that diluted at 4.40 to dump their shares... but I am waiting for a pullback before that. ALXA has the FDA response to their CRL in the next month (hence the breakout). Also the chart was shaping up beautifully when I bought a couple of days ago. AFFY the next event is the NDA submission in Q2 2011... but it is also oversold from 8.50 down to 6.90's so that changes things a bit. Still, AFFY has this habit of taking a couple to a few weeks to do anything so I wouldn't be surprised if nothing happens for that period of time. Hopefully it will pull back to 6.80 and I will be able to really load up.

g

Good to know. I like the idea of AVNR and AFFY. I avoid FDA dates, especially with how hard it's been to get approvals in recent years. You really have to be more differentiated these days.

[disneysteve]

AFFY has this habit of taking a couple to a few weeks to do anything so I wouldn't be surprised if nothing happens for that period of time. Hopefully it will pull back to 6.80 and I will be able to really load up.

g

Down to $6.85. Jumping in yet?

[gambler2075]

I'm holding off a bit, it could see 6.50's... down ~8000$ from my 7.06 buy... lol

g

[Slug]

Below $6.75 now, but what will tomorrow hold?

[Slug]

Expect my order for the Feb. 7 calls @ .3 will fail to fill, but we'll see.

[Slug]

Expect my order for the Feb. 7 calls @ .3 will fail to fill, but we'll see.

Didn't get'em. Did pick up some TCAP for my Roth right at the close though. I mean I was at the store - I had to buy something, right? :-)

[gambler2075]

Below $6.75 now, but what will tomorrow hold?

Maybe 6.50? who knows...

g

p.s. Maybe I'll sell out and buy back at 6.50 :P

[Slug]

Reduced my Call order price to .2 on the Feb. 7's. We'll see if I get a hit.

[disneysteve]

Maybe 6.50? who knows...

g

p.s. Maybe I'll sell out and buy back at 6.50 :P

Good call, g. Down into $6.50s today.

[Slug]

In at 6.51 on AFFY.