market speculation for October

[gambler2075]

Interesting action today with QE2. On the one hand, each dollar is valued less, so it makes sense that the stock market goes up. But there was a nice fakeout initially, with the DOW down 80 or 90 points, then it came roaring back. So we will see.

In other news, I took a look at my year-to-date trading results. Not as impressive as you might imagine, seeing that I have made some big trades recently, but like I always said, it is my swing trades that carried me to profitability, while my little intra-day trades lost money here and there. Note that if that AVNR trade had gone the other way I would be up only like 100K$ on the year. I need to concentrate on letting my swing trades play themselves out, and not worrying about the little 500$ or 1000$ intra-day trades.

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/6943/2010113bofaytd.jpg

http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/3265/20101103ytd.jpg

g

[KTP]

Sorry gambler, I bailed out on your affy play (probably means it will double soon!)

I made a little profit, but mostly I needed the cash for my microsoft plays. Mr. Gates seems to be doing an automatic sell each morning because the stock gaps higher then immediately drops, then reclimbs. I have made $4000 more over the past 2 days just playing around with this. I guess it will work as long as the stock keeps climbing, and with Kinect now forcast at 5 million units instead of 3 million, I do not see a reason it will not. The only reason the stock isn't already at $30 is because everyone is looking at past market performance and not future potential. Their loss, my gain.

[KTP]

AVNR might move today. Some activity mid morning suggests maybe someone knows of a buyout. Of course at the time I am writing this, Gambler is probably buying and selling 80K shares of AVNR.

Be a hoot if it closed at $10 today, opening at $4.50.

[gambler2075]

Sorry gambler, I bailed out on your affy play (probably means it will double soon!)

Hey, don't be sorry... I don't know how long I will be holding either

your MSFT calls have taken a bit of a hit over the past 2 days but are still well above where you bought them, nice job on that. Of course, as I like to say, it is not a profit until you sell

g

[KTP]

Hey, don't be sorry... I don't know how long I will be holding either

your MSFT calls have taken a bit of a hit over the past 2 days but are still well above where you bought them, nice job on that. Of course, as I like to say, it is not a profit until you sell

g

Oh I got out of those again at $27.3 because Bill Gates started an automatic stock sale, which will probably last 5 to 10 days if past history is correct. During this time, it doesn't matter much what the regular market is doing, microsoft stock will sink a bit. When his automatic sales are over (end of next week?) microsoft will take off. At least that is my prediction. Trying to determine when I want to get back in so I don't miss the take off.

[gambler2075]

Oh I got out of those again at $27.3 because Bill Gates started an automatic stock sale

Nice. How much have you made (percent-wise) on your MSFT calls?

g

[KTP]

I haven't added it up since I have been buying and selling them several times. I think there will be a bottom hit today or monday, and I am just tryign to figure out which calls to get (thinking Jan 11 $26 calls, and how low I can get them. $1.30 would be awesome).

Currently I am all cash, $19,000 profit on $15,000 I had at risk at any one time. So well over 100%.

[gambler2075]

+100%? In what, like a couple of weeks? Well played, sir... well played



g

[Scanner]

Yeah, we are all freegin' geniuses this week, aren't we?

My silver mining stock speculation is up almost 20% in 1 week. Bought in at $.74 and it's .88 today.

But a trader I am not, a speculative investor maybe. . .but not a trader. . .

[gambler2075]

Yeah, we are all freegin' geniuses this week, aren't we?

My silver mining stock speculation is up almost 20% in 1 week. Bought in at $.74 and it's .88 today.

Sell sell sell!!!

lol, where in the markets can you get 20% return in a week? that is ridiculous... of course it isn't a profit until you have sold.

Nice close on AFFY, 5.51. If anyone followed my advice and bought at 5.09 they would be up a good 8% or so in a week. I think that beats any CD that I have found :P

Once again, it is not a profit until you have sold, of course. I'd recommend people sell here if they are not traders (5.51) but I am holding.

g

[Scanner]

Well gambler,

What would I do with it if I sold? I am an investor and would have to put it somewhere else and I have no research on any other companies to speculate in.

Funny, I work healthcare but I am intimidated as an investor on healthcare. You like healthcare/biotech. But I love researching mining companies and the management and reading reports.

The difference is I tend to think long term as an investor - will this knuckleheaded company be around and grow and grow (or at least sell it's company and be absorbed into someone bigger).

But I suppose I could be thinking to a better investment. What I have may be good, but there could be better.

I just have never have been on a large sum of cash for any period of time in my portfolio.

The company was within hte last two years at $2.50/share. . .with the price of silver, gold and zinc going through the roof right now, I could see it climbing to there, at least. . .then I would put a stop order on it for sure.

I mean, why risk on penny stock for a 20% gain? It would seem to me the risk wouldn't match the reward (although 20% in one week is admittedly good). Remember this is the apex of the pyramid of my investment portfolio. It's the "zing", the "pizzaz". . .a 20% gain. . .well, you get that sometimes from the S & P 500 on certain years. I would think shooting for 100% at least for the speculative part of the portfolio.

After all, the downside risk is I could have certainly lost it all.

[KTP]

Ok, I am a teeny bit bummed about bailing on affy the other day at 5.27 Did you dump it at 5.51 or still holding it? The management of the company sounds iffy....poor decision making.

Dang it, I wish Bill would get his foot off the neck of microsoft and let it breathe. I couldn't make up my mind on an entry point, but probably should have gotten in at 26.56 when it touched that. I figure there are about 3 or 4 more days of pain while he unloads another 10 million shares via automatic selling. The market could probably absorb that, but it seems like short sellers are playing into his dump since it is well known and they are taking advantage of the daily price depression it causes. The moves are not really big enough for me to take advantage because I don't have the cash to overcome the trading costs for a few penny swing.

Ah well, he should be done selling by end of next week. I will have to find an entry point just before he finished up, and then ride it to $30.

[gambler2075]

Ok, I am a teeny bit bummed about bailing on affy the other day at 5.27 Did you dump it at 5.51 or still holding it? The management of the company sounds iffy....poor decision making.

Still holding all (72,000) shares. But you know if you buy at 5.55 on monday then it goes back to 5.20

Maybe I dump it all on monday at the open... A profit is not a profit until someone sells.

we'll see

g

[KTP]

Ah hah! Dang Balmer was selling a a$$load of microsoft shares the past 3 days. 40 million shares over a 3 day period. This is why microsoft did not increase with the rest of the market. Gee, thanks Balmer.

The question is, now that this news is out, will the stock take back the run to $30? The market could view it as bad "Why is he selling so much, does he know something bad to happen?" or good "Maybe this means he is about to step down"

[Scanner]

My genius continues . . .my stock is trading @ near $1.00 today - almost a 33% gain in 10-14 days. The company announced today it uncovered more mineralization deposits of silver and gold.

I am glad we have this thread going.

I feel it's real important to have the "Sensible" diet discussions on portfolio but often speculation discussions are neglected here.

Yessiree. . .I'm a regulare Warren Buffet