market speculation for October

[disneysteve]

Gambler....AFFY trading over $8 today...did you happen to get back in?

Did you really need to point that out to those of us who no longer own it.
I made my money on it but not as much as if I had held on. Who knew?

I see they named a new CEO. Apparently, investors are happy about that.

[gambler2075]

Unfortunately, I only bought back in 30K shares worth at 6.52, which is somewhat annoying... I was planning on getting the full 80K by Jan 15th... but alas, things happened a bit too early for me. Oh well.

g

[KTP]

Unfortunately, I only bought back in 30K shares worth at 6.52, which is somewhat annoying... I was planning on getting the full 80K by Jan 15th... but alas, things happened a bit too early for me. Oh well.

g

Let's play a little violin for Gambler since he only has made 50K on this one week trade

[gambler2075]

Let's play a little violin for Gambler since he only has made 50K on this one week trade

Hehe, this did run up earlier than I expected.
Anyway, sold 15K shares at 7.95 from my 6.53 buy for +21,000$. Still holding another 15K which I will probably dispose of soon... I do think that AFFY is going to be alot higher than 8 in a year's time, but on a short-term basis I feel it is overbought. I am surprised that it did run up as early as it did, though.

g

[gambler2075]

Hehe, this did run up earlier than I expected.
Anyway, sold 15K shares at 7.95 from my 6.53 buy for +21,000$. Still holding another 15K which I will probably dispose of soon... I do think that AFFY is going to be alot higher than 8 in a year's time, but on a short-term basis I feel it is overbought. I am surprised that it did run up as early as it did, though.

g

Sold the remaining 15K shares at the open, 7.81, for average selling price of 7.88 for all 30K shares. From 6.53 buy, that is +40K$ in 10 days, not 50K. If I had been a bit faster on friday I could have gotten that, but coulda woulda shoulda...

g

[gambler2075]

Added the screenshot. +41,700$

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[gambler2075]

Did you really need to point that out to those of us who no longer own it.
I made my money on it but not as much as if I had held on. Who knew?

I see they named a new CEO. Apparently, investors are happy about that.

Personally, I think this 'new CEO' runup is a load of bull... yeah, it scared the shorts into covering, but I think the stock is coming back to reality and people will realize that it isn't that big of a deal.

But I may be a bit biased since I don't own the stock.



g

[disneysteve]

But I may be a bit biased since I don't own the stock.

Would you jump back in if it drops down again, like the mid or low $6 range?

[gambler2075]

Would you jump back in if it drops down again, like the mid or low $6 range?

Depends what other stocks I am looking at, and how I think AFFY itself is trading. My timeframe is much shorter than an investor... typically I look for a trade to last no more than 1 month, maximum, since there are so many other bios that I could be putting my money into. It also depends on what the overall market is doing, and especially what I feel the sentiment in the bios are at the time. But, likely, yes.

g

[KTP]

The money play is to buy CISCO LEAPs or at least July 11 calls. Why settle for a 50% return on AFFY when you can get a 500% return on Cisco?

[gambler2075]

The money play is to buy CISCO LEAPs or at least July 11 calls. Why settle for a 50% return on AFFY when you can get a 500% return on Cisco?

Yes, but how long am I gonna have to wait for that 500% gain?

...meanwhile, back at the ranch...
+7758$ on a 2 day trade, 275K$ initial position.

Merrill still making me mad on the difficulty of posting p/l statements so I won't bother.... but I will say it is a bio that is not behaving like I would like. Maybe I am being too quick to pull the trigger. We'll see.

g

[Slug]

Gambler,

Are you following these bios from the perspective of clinical trial data and FDA commentary or are you doing more analysis on the trading patterns or both?

[gambler2075]

Gambler,

Are you following these bios from the perspective of clinical trial data and FDA commentary or are you doing more analysis on the trading patterns or both?

Basically I am following them from when I think the sentiment is either oversold or overbought... and from watching trading patterns. Often times, the realtime trades gives little hints on what the big/smart money is doing, based on watching Level II quotes and seeing who is on the bid/offer...

As you know, most of the trading movements are far faster than fundamental stock movements. FDA commentary and clinical trial data take 6 months, to years, or more, to happen, whereas there are tradeable events far more frequently. I try to use my trading experience to discern what is going to happen on that basis.

That being said,
lost 6000$ today, attempting to trade another bio... erases that gain from yesterday, and reminds me that I need to stick to swing-trading, not daytrading.

g

[Slug]

Are you doing pre-market trades looking for lower volume and bigger movement?

See any momentum in SGEN?

[gambler2075]

Are you doing pre-market trades looking for lower volume and bigger movement?

See any momentum in SGEN?

SGEN has such a large market cap that I don't tend to look at those names for momentum... premarket, most of the time the volumes are not large enough for any meaningful trades. Remember that it is easy to move the stock premarket, but you need to be able to sell, too... if you can't get bids when you want to get out, then there is no point in getting in...

g