Moving the goal posts

[TexasHusker]

So when the good doctors came to the podium to recommend shutting down our country, it was solely and exclusively to "flatten the curve" and keep the hospitals from being overrun. In 95 percent of the country, that mission was accomplished.

But taking back our republic from the bureaucrats is now like trying to take meat away from a lion. There are all sorts of reasons popping up about why economies can't re-open that had nothing to do with the original shut-down:

- Need more testing
- Need trace tracking
- Need thermometers
- Need for the deaths to fall by XX percent

Our own mayor now says "we want to see new cases flatline...zero." Well that's not going to happen, nor was it ever going to happen.

Meanwhile, some of our largest retailers - JC Penney, Macy's, Neiman Marcus - are filing bankruptcy while Walmart is free to continue to go about their business. A friend of mine owns a tree and plant nursery who is likely going out of business, while the Home Depot garden center is busier than ever. Fed Ex is laying off tens of thousands, while USPS hasn't laid off a single worker.

On the day we locked the doors at all of our stores, as we drove away, I told my wife, "you know that there is the possibility that these stores may never re-open, don't you?" She thought I was crazy. Well, we've been shut a month now and have spent $70K of our savings in a single month just trying to keep our teams together and rents paid. Yes, there are rumors that we could re-open soon. Rumors. Perhaps we will be the beneficiary of charity by our government officials on a certain day? Maybe toss a few breadcrumbs my way by some chance?

My biggest fear in the shut down is that, in dictating our lives for us and telling us what we can and can't do, where we can and can't go, what a can and can't eat, the government would learn that they like it that way.

[rennigade]

Boy, this should be a really uplifting thread. I doubt anyone will get in any arguments. I doubt this will turn political...oh wait, it already has. I doubt we'll hear any bro science. Im sure we'll discover some deep insight and opinions of the members of this site. What else am I missing?

[ua_guy]

I don't think it's unreasonable at all to want widespread and accurate testing before fully reopening. I fully support that. It's what the health experts have been pushing for all along; and they have been saying it's the key to re-opening and not experiencing huge secondary waves of COVID, which will cripple things again.

I was just talking to DH about this... wouldn't it be nice if we could just go get tested if we were concerned? To know if we've already had it? Or, if we experience any like-symptoms, to be able to go get tested right away and self-isolate?

[cypher1]

Like I mentioned in DSes earlier thread, I'm all for letting local governments decide on removing stay in order. As long as they're targeting smaller or rural populations first, as well as feel confident with current medical resources. Leaving larger cities as last. BUT the key is having enough testing kits for each state and tracking, as others have stated. I believe until we have a better way to track and validate, we're stuck.

[riverwed070707]

I was late to the party on the other thread but I just wanted to chime in to say I have mixed feelings being in one of the states that hasn't shut down. On the one hand I think the statistics are kind of bogus. I sit on daily pandemic calls at work for an "essential business" and I'm highly in tune with the day to day changes and local mandates.
1) We haven't called it a shelter in place but its effectively the same - all the same places are closed (restaurants, bars, hair salons, dentists, etc), groups limited to 10, no visiting LTC facilities, etc., however, it isn't being enforced so there are dozens of kids at the park every day, people are out and about like this is a vacation and generally it comes off as more of a recommendation
2) We are handling outbreaks regionally within the state based on number of hospital beds and facilities. There is a rating system from 1-12 and once your region hits 10 stricter orders are put in place - ie you can only gather with people of your household and fines can be imposed if you break them. Basically, once you hit 10 it's a shelter in place without calling it a shelter in place
3) Iowa showed an 82% increase last week. In hard numbers, that means we went from 1,587 cases with 41 deaths last Monday to 2,902 cases and 75 deaths this Monday. I'm not taking an additional 35 deaths lightly but we are at a 9 days to double ratio which is substantially less than many impacted areas - previously we were as high as 4 days to double several weeks ago - despite our 82% increase and lack of formal shelter in place order, it's slowing. Scrolling back through my notes, South Dakota had 2 deaths STATEWIDE on 4/6; they now have 7. Kind of agree with TH that the articles claiming outbreak in states that aren't enforcing a lock down are creating unnecessary buzz.

[ua_guy]

On the day we locked the doors at all of our stores, as we drove away, I told my wife, "you know that there is the possibility that these stores may never re-open, don't you?" She thought I was crazy. Well, we've been shut a month now and have spent $70K of our savings in a single month just trying to keep our teams together and rents paid. Yes, there are rumors that we could re-open soon. Rumors. Perhaps we will be the beneficiary of charity by our government officials on a certain day? Maybe toss a few breadcrumbs my way by some chance?

Did you apply for an SBA bailout? How is that process working, if you've used it? I'm mostly curious if it's working as advertised, because it seems to be one of the administration's biggest talking points, what they're doing for small business.

[TexasHusker]

Did you apply for an SBA bailout? How is that process working, if you've used it? I'm mostly curious if it's working as advertised, because it seems to be one of the administration's biggest talking points, what they're doing for small business.

Yes, we got the "bailout". Yes, it helps.

But the bailout was designed as a very temporary measure - a few pay periods at the most. It wasn't meant to keep businesses up and running indefinitely, until we get vaccines, treatments, etc.

The shutdown was supposed to be in effect only until we flattened the curve. I am hoping that governors use some common sense and re-open the economies, while there is still something left to re-open. I don't really want to buy my dress clothes at WalMart.

[riverwed070707]

Yes, we got the "bailout". Yes, it helps.

But the bailout was designed as a very temporary measure - a few pay periods at the most. It wasn't meant to keep businesses up and running indefinitely, until we get vaccines, treatments, etc.

The shutdown was supposed to be in effect only until we flattened the curve. I am hoping that governors use some common sense and re-open the economies, while there is still something left to re-open. I don't really want to buy my dress clothes at WalMart.

While I agree with your sentiment and also despise walmart, it's just the opposite for me - IDK how to function with thrift stores closed! I wanted to get some puzzles but I'm surely not going to pay $15 at walmart when I can pay $1.50 at salvation army! Thought I'd pick up some furniture to refinish and fill some of my time but I'm not going to pay the price of new! DD wanted scrap fabric to make some masks but there's no where to get it

[ua_guy]

That's good to hear that it helped you and your business. I agree, the program was definitely meant to be a temporary measure.

Flattening the curve was never about re-opening and those who said it was were misinformed. It was about containing and slowing the spread of the virus to save lives and also to not overwhelm the healthcare system which has a limited capacity. The reason the common-sense approach to "re-open" doesn't work here is because COVID is unlike SARS or MERS where the symptomatic people can be isolated and contact tracing and isolation can be done. Covid can transmit without symptoms. If there is no way to know who actually is infected and is transmitting the virus, then there's no way to contain it unless everyone isolates--which was the approach with the total shutdown. So if we re-open without any better ability to test and isolate those who are known to have it, we've learned nothing and will inevitably repeat the pandemic, in waves, until we do.

We can tilt at bureaucrats all day long but the real question about reopening is, when is it safe to do so? And I don't think that question has been answered yet without better ability to test.

[Snydley]

"Good doctors" - sigh.

If we can't test and trace contacts we can't fully reopen, or probably even partially re-open. If our president wasn't...OMG where do I begin!!?!! We could have tests in place in a month, get back to life.

Instead, let's not socially distance, let's tweet "liberate!" and then blame democrats for why we aren't re-opening.

[TexasHusker]

While I agree with your sentiment and also despise walmart, it's just the opposite for me - IDK how to function with thrift stores closed! I wanted to get some puzzles but I'm surely not going to pay $15 at walmart when I can pay $1.50 at salvation army! Thought I'd pick up some furniture to refinish and fill some of my time but I'm not going to pay the price of new! DD wanted scrap fabric to make some masks but there's no where to get it

Buying puzzles isn’t essential. But you can buy a bottle of whiskey. You need to appeal to your governor to let you buy some second hand puzzles. On the other hand, if keeping those places shuttered saves JUST ONE LIFE, the hell with you and your silly puzzles.

[Like2Plan]

So when the good doctors came to the podium to recommend shutting down our country, it was solely and exclusively to "flatten the curve" and keep the hospitals from being overrun. In 95 percent of the country, that mission was accomplished.

But taking back our republic from the bureaucrats is now like trying to take meat away from a lion. There are all sorts of reasons popping up about why economies can't re-open that had nothing to do with the original shut-down:

- Need more testing
- Need trace tracking
- Need thermometers
- Need for the deaths to fall by XX percent

Our own mayor now says "we want to see new cases flatline...zero." Well that's not going to happen, nor was it ever going to happen.

Meanwhile, some of our largest retailers - JC Penney, Macy's, Neiman Marcus - are filing bankruptcy while Walmart is free to continue to go about their business. A friend of mine owns a tree and plant nursery who is likely going out of business, while the Home Depot garden center is busier than ever. Fed Ex is laying off tens of thousands, while USPS hasn't laid off a single worker.

On the day we locked the doors at all of our stores, as we drove away, I told my wife, "you know that there is the possibility that these stores may never re-open, don't you?" She thought I was crazy. Well, we've been shut a month now and have spent $70K of our savings in a single month just trying to keep our teams together and rents paid. Yes, there are rumors that we could re-open soon. Rumors. Perhaps we will be the beneficiary of charity by our government officials on a certain day? Maybe toss a few breadcrumbs my way by some chance?

My biggest fear in the shut down is that, in dictating our lives for us and telling us what we can and can't do, where we can and can't go, what a can and can't eat, the government would learn that they like it that way.

I agree that more testing is needed. My state is way, way, way behind in testing--currently, we are 2nd to last in all the states in tests per one million in population (no idea why we are so far behind). We are still getting a test positivity of about 16% (which means there are probably more cases that are undetected according to Dr. Birx). We have seen increasing cases despite being on lockdown for over a month. I would love for things to be back to normal. My dear uncle passed away (not due to covid) and I can not go to his services (in another state).

But, not every area is impacted by this virus to the same degree at the same time. So maybe it is reasonable for some areas to open back up. The fear was we wouldn't be able to keep up with the number of hospitalizations across this country. It seems like the mitigation strategies have worked. I think what went wrong with New York/New Jersey/MA is that the disease had been spreading undetected for several weeks. Maybe we can get ahead of it with more testing in place? So, it will be interesting to see how it works out in the states which are opening up. I think they are going to do their level best to get more testing available so this can be accomplished.

Texas, are they going town by town or does your governor decide when to reopen? I thought TX was one of the states on its way to reopening.

[disneysteve]

My state is way, way, way behind in testing

The entire US is way behind in testing. We've only tested something like 1% of the population. That's insane. We can't draw any meaningful conclusions from that small of a sample size. Testing has been promised repeatedly and just hasn't materialized. We can't just test those who are moderately to severely ill. We have to test folks with mild symptoms. We have to test people with no symptoms. We have to do contact tracing and test those who may have been exposed. We have to test employees before allowing them to return to work so that they don't infect coworkers and customers.

All of that said, I have a serious question. If you feel the government (local, state, federal, whatever) is dragging their feet on reopening, what's in it for them? What benefit are they getting from keeping things closed? Surely they are losing out on millions in tax revenue. Is it political? If so, how? Are they scoring points with their constituents by keeping things closed? I'm having a hard time seeing what the upside is for them to extend closures other than the potential health benefits. What am I missing?

[Fishindude77]

I think people are just going to have to say "screw em" at some point, open up their businesses, do the things they want to do, and go back to their normal lives, assuming whatever risk comes along with that.
To date, I don't know anyone affected by the virus and nobody I know knows anyone affected by this virus. Not saying this is a made up deal, but I do think the risk has been blown way out of proportion.

It's very creepy going to stores seeing all of these people running around wearing masks, staying away from one another, etc.
Almost feels like the government is testing us to see how much control they really have?

[bjl584]

A lot of politicians aren't business owners. A lot aren't doctors or pathologists either.
One would hope that they are surrounding themselves with experts on both, but that's a big hope.
I get what you are saying. If we don't reopen soon, we are going to fall into a depression, and countless peoples' livelihoods will be in ruins and never recover. And, governments probably won't really care about that side of the equation.