House prices post-COVID-19?

[Leo]

I've been following this pandemic since the first case here in the US. As you all probably know, house prices right now are crazy especially here in LA. It's been all-time high and it just keeps going up. I think a decent single-detached house in a nice neighborhood closer to the city is at least $700,000 to $800,000!

We've been saving for a house. Currently, we have about $75k in cash for a down payment and we can save an additional $25k for the remaining of the year.

So the stock market went down around 35% last week from the all-time high. A lot of small businesses right now are struggling. A lot of people got laid off and 3.3 million filed for unemployment last I heard, but stimulus package got passed and should help people who lost their jobs. Plus we don't know the full extent of this virus in terms of peak and death rate.

So my prediction is that the pendulum will swing temporarily from a seller market to a buyer market. A lot of people who lost their jobs or struggling financially will be forced to sell their homes, a very small percentage of home-owners might die (sorry for being insensitive). so maybe 20% dip?

No one knows what will happen in the future but what's your prediction on real estate?

[~bs]

Too early to see a dip yet. Interest rates have dropped, temporarily propping up prices. Look to other financial crises to see timing on real estate crashes.

[ua_guy]

I think inventory is going to be constrained temporarily. A lot of people are delaying elective moves for uncertainty. For those facing financial impact, the need to sell has been softened by promises of leniency, which will allow those people to stay in place longer. Low interest rates help higher prices, as does constrained inventory. I think the market will start taking longer to move but transaction prices will remain pretty high. Builders are facing a real problem because new home sales are falling through the floor which will constrain inventory even more.

[cypher1]

In the Twin Cities, my sister just closed on selling her house for 10K over the asking price. A buddy just accepted an offer over the weekend for 15K over his price, but he's also nervous with the buyer backing out later.

[bjl584]

Real Estate tends to be a bit more stable than stocks or other parts of the economy.
Interest rates are dropping, but no one is out looking at houses much either. And sellers probably aren't listing as much for that same reason.
Unless this drags on for months and months I don't see the real estate market moving much in either direction

[kork13]

Real Estate tends to be a bit more stable than stocks or other parts of the economy.
Interest rates are dropping, but no one is out looking at houses much either. And sellers probably aren't listing as much for that same reason.
Unless this drags on for months and months I don't see the real estate market moving much in either direction

We listed our house for sale literally days before the hysteria & various lockdowns began in earnest here in the states. Although we initially had plenty of interest, I talked to our realtor yesterday & he was describing some of the strange (reasonable under current conditions) behaviors he's seeing with buyers right now. For example, the market is generally strong, and properties are selling fast with multiple offers... As long as it's unoccupied. Occupied homes are almost completely halted, and half of the city's realtors have stopped even offering showings to occupied homes right now. The showings we do get tend to be "virtual walkthroughs," where the owner or realtor gives a showing during a live video call.

So we're basically just waiting things out until everything calms down a bit.

[TexasHusker]

I'm seeing a lot of high end houses popping up in my market. A lot of these are owned by doctors and similar who depend on a very high cash flow. Unless you are a hospitalist or PCP, that house of cards has come crashing down in the last 30 days. I know a few orthos and neuros who bank $120K a month that are now basically making zero. Scary.

[disneysteve]

I'm seeing a lot of high end houses popping up in my market. A lot of these are owned by doctors and similar who depend on a very high cash flow. Unless you are a hospitalist or PCP, that house of cards has come crashing down in the last 30 days. I know a few orthos and neuros who bank $120K a month that are now basically making zero. Scary.

PCPs are suffering tremendously. Many have shut down their offices entirely. If not, they've switched to doing as much as possible by phone, only bringing in the folks who absolutely need to be seen. I spoke to my old partner today and he is still open but barely. He's got next to nothing coming in income-wise. Fortunately for him, he just sold his beach house right before this all happened. That was costing him about 3K/month I think, so he got rid of that expense just in time.

The urgent care Facebook group I'm in has a lot of people whose clinics have closed due to the low volume. If I owned an urgent care clinic, I'm sure I would have shut it down by now. My place saw 6 patients today in 12 hours. Just my salary alone makes that not worth being open. Add in the 2 MAs and the x-ray tech and they're well in the hole every day they stay open.

[~bs]

PCPs are suffering tremendously. Many have shut down their offices entirely. If not, they've switched to doing as much as possible by phone, only bringing in the folks who absolutely need to be seen. I spoke to my old partner today and he is still open but barely. He's got next to nothing coming in income-wise. Fortunately for him, he just sold his beach house right before this all happened. That was costing him about 3K/month I think, so he got rid of that expense just in time.

The urgent care Facebook group I'm in has a lot of people whose clinics have closed due to the low volume. If I owned an urgent care clinic, I'm sure I would have shut it down by now. My place saw 6 patients today in 12 hours. Just my salary alone makes that not worth being open. Add in the 2 MAs and the x-ray tech and they're well in the hole every day they stay open.

Yup. The dental insurer as well is advising members of their association to stop seeing clients except for extreme emergencies

[LivingAlmostLarge]

I have a couple of dental neighbors bringing in zero. Terrifying they said.

Texas why are high end homes going on? The docs still have jobs. They will make money. Medicine is recession proof. Why panic sell?

[Nutria]

I'm seeing a lot of high end houses popping up in my market. A lot of these are owned by doctors and similar who depend on a very high cash flow. Unless you are a hospitalist or PCP, that house of cards has come crashing down in the last 30 days. I know a few orthos and neuros who bank $120K a month that are now basically making zero. Scary.

You'd think they'd have some money in the bank...

[Nutria]

The urgent care Facebook group I'm in has a lot of people whose clinics have closed due to the low volume. If I owned an urgent care clinic, I'm sure I would have shut it down by now. My place saw 6 patients today in 12 hours. Just my salary alone makes that not worth being open. Add in the 2 MAs and the x-ray tech and they're well in the hole every day they stay open.

I'm glad that at least one UC center is open. Two days ago, DD's roommate sliced her finger cutting an avocado, and yesterday DD went to UC with an expanding rash.

[Nutria]

I have a couple of dental neighbors bringing in zero. Terrifying they said.

Texas why are high end homes going on? The docs still have jobs. They will make money. Medicine is recession proof. Why panic sell?

Because they don't have any money in the bank, and their stock investments have tanked?

[disneysteve]

I'm glad that at least one UC center is open. Two days ago, DD's roommate sliced her finger cutting an avocado, and yesterday DD went to UC with an expanding rash.

Yeah, even though we're seeing very few patients, I and they are glad we're still there. I just got the March patient satisfaction scores today and my rating was 99.4%. I think that's the highest it's ever been. I suspect that's partly due to patients being extra appreciative of us right now. Getting in with their PCP is hard normally. Now it's nearly impossible as some have closed and the rest are doing telemed visits and very limited in-person visits.

[disneysteve]

You'd think they'd have some money in the bank...

Having a good job and a good income does not mean you are good with money. In fact, just the opposite is often true. These people often figure they can spend freely because they make plenty and their jobs are safe and recession-proof. I'm sure a lot of them are having a very rude awakening right about now and I can't say I have a lot of sympathy for them as they go home to their McMansions driving their leased BMWs while I sit comfortably in my paid off modest home with my 14-year-old Camry in the driveway and a large cash reserve and million dollar portfolio (barely at this point but I think it's still hanging on to 6 zeros).

If being out of work for a couple of weeks requires you to sell your house, you just might want to reevaluate your financial situation.