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MEGATRENDS! Post Corona winners and losers

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    MEGATRENDS! Post Corona winners and losers

    Every national crisis changes society in fundamental ways. CV-19 will be no different. Here is my first blush at winners and losers:

    WINNERS
    • Resort areas in the United States. Folks are going to prefer to drive than leave the country.
    • Vacation home rentals. Folks are going to appreciate their "space" more, and will be willing to pay for it.
    • Restaurants with robust drive-thru/take out business. McDonald's, Pizza Hut, etc.
    • Home exercise equipment. A return of the home gym in lieu of going to the gym.
    • Smaller metro areas. People are going to try to get out of the mega MSAs. They will figure out they like life at a slower pace during all of this. More people = more mayhem. "Go west young man"! Many folks are going to start migrating to places where they have more room. Doctors are going to leave Manhattan NY for Manhattan KS.
    • Minor league sports teams. We are going to have less money to toss around, so we are going to get our fix on minor league baseball, hockey, and football.

    LOSERS
    • Airlines. Flying test tubes of viruses and bacteria. Demand won't recover for years and years.
    • Cruise lines. They are pretty much done. 10X worse than airlines. Totally out of vogue. Gone. Kaput. The smartest bet on Wall Street might be shorting these companies.
    • Foreign vacation destinations. Europe, the Bahamas, Cayman, etc. Demand won't recover for many years.
    • Sports teams. Now that we've figured out that life goes on without them, we've figured out that life goes on without them. And who can afford to attend these any more? NCAA, NFL, MLB, NBA, MLS --- you are now officially in line for a major haircut. And couldn't happen to a nice bunch.
    • Universities. Now that we've figured out that everything can be done online, "going off to college" is going to be an indulgence of the rich and those close to it.
    • Youth sports organizations. Now that we've figured out that life goes on without them, and might even be better, look for demand to soften.
    • Many franchise restaurants. They are expensive and people are going to grow used to doing without them. I wouldn't want to own Darden's at any price right now.
    • Retail. JC Penny, Belk, Beall's and many others are GONZO. Just waiting for the funerals.
    • China and Russia. We are in a war much bigger than this virus. We have become far too dependent on the Euro/Asia Continent, and I think this situation will bring about the "great divorce", which will happen over a 10 year period. In 10 years, I look for us to be mostly absent from that continent, and that will be a good, very good, thing.
    Last edited by TexasHusker; 03-20-2020, 06:27 PM.
    Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

    -George Carlin

    #2
    I like this idea of forecasting winners & loses. Some other losers that I see physical casinos (online casinos will grow). Theaters will also become losers (again online will flourish). I think nail salons and hair shops will continue because people are lazy & would rather be pampered than do their own grooming. Business must be booming for Postmates & Instacart so delivery services will rocket.

    Comment


      #3
      As the months go by and depending on prices, international travel is still on the table. Assuming the ban is no longer in affect.
      "I'd buy that for a dollar!"

      Comment


        #4
        I don't see losing a lot of industries after the Chinese virus...airlines are essential, cruises while a luxury bring money to tourist destinations. Bankruptcy and consolidations will happen but life will go back to normal at some point.
        Last edited by greenskeeper; 03-21-2020, 05:21 AM.
        Gunga galunga...gunga -- gunga galunga.

        Comment


          #5
          I agree with most of these predictions. Particularly a reduction in airline travel and a whole lot less interest in pro sports.

          Comment


            #6
            The only one of your predictions I definitely agree with is retail, and that's no stretch as it's been dying for a long time. Many retailers, big and small, will not survive the coronavirus event. Ones that were already teetering on extinction, like Penneys and Sears, will finally fold. Others that might have been managing okay will be driven into bankruptcy. The same goes for restaurants. They operate on a super thin margin in the best of times. The big national chains might have the resources to keep going but the independent, mom and pop, chef owned places will fail.
            Steve

            * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
            * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
            * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

            Comment


              #7
              I hope cruises aren't a thing of the past, they are my preferred vacation, although I've not done a lot of them. I was really hoping to do a cruise around Italy. I have no desire to pack and unpack and stay in different hotels. I rather my hotel travel around with me. I don't want to think that will never be a reality.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Thrif-t View Post
                I hope cruises aren't a thing of the past,
                Of course they aren't. For one thing, the ships cost upwards of a billion dollars EACH to build. There's no way those are ending up in a scrapyard. Cruising is more popular than ever. COVID19 won't change that.

                Look, the current situation is horrific. But they will develop a vaccine and treatments and COVID19 will become just another viral illness that we all deal with regularly. Flu, SARS, MERS, and plenty of others will be joined by COVID19.

                Will something like this ever happen again? Probably. But think about it. With everything that has happened in the world, this is the first great pandemic since 1918. There have been others but nothing nearly on this scale. The world isn't going to stop living or traveling or flying or cruising because of this.
                Steve

                * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Bidets




                  Comment


                    #10
                    Wannabe doctors, nurses, and 1st responders might rethink a career choice in these fields because of COVID-19.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by QuarterMillionMan View Post
                      Wannabe doctors, nurses, and 1st responders might rethink a career choice in these fields because of COVID-19.
                      I doubt it. If anyone changes their mind because of this, they probably shouldn't have been doing it in the first place, so that's a good thing. I think it's much more likely that people will see how important those jobs are and be even more drawn to them.
                      Steve

                      * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                      * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                      * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Looks like pizza parlors are doing mass hiring.
                        Winner to take out food
                        Brian

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by bjl584 View Post
                          Looks like pizza parlors are doing mass hiring.
                          Winner to take out food
                          Places that were already mainly takeout and delivery were perfectly positioned for this. The restaurants that are really struggling are the ones that were almost exclusively dine in. They've switched to offering takeout and delivery but most aren't being terribly successful. I totally understand that as they are generally nicer places and more about the overall experience and not just the food. It's just not that appealing to us to order out from a fine dining place.
                          Steve

                          * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                          * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                          * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            texas i might say that a lot of people will also leave smaller cities. Racism appears to be getting more blatant and you may also have more immigrants choosing to leave cities they thought were safe for areas they are with "others" of their own kind. Safety in numbers. I'm not sure they will be moving to places where they are perceived to be the cause of the "chinese" virus.
                            LivingAlmostLarge Blog

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post
                              texas i might say that a lot of people will also leave smaller cities. Racism appears to be getting more blatant and you may also have more immigrants choosing to leave cities they thought were safe for areas they are with "others" of their own kind. Safety in numbers. I'm not sure they will be moving to places where they are perceived to be the cause of the "chinese" virus.
                              I don’t know that racism is becoming more blatant. “Racist” has become a convenient weapon of choice word by many to disparage someone we might disagree with or dislike. Media constantly uses the term to grab headlines and sow discourse. The use of the tactic is beginning to lose its effectiveness, thankfully, as people are starting to see it for what it is. Mostly b.s.



                              Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

                              -George Carlin

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