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  • What next?

    A little over a year and few months ago we bought back into our "home" northwest market after spending some time in a different state for work. We hadn't planned on moving but we stood to make a sizable profit on the house we owned, so that factored into our decision. When we bought back in, that money went right back into purchasing a home in the same market conditions, but only inflated about 10% at that point.

    We generally like our current home and is a place we could stay for a long time. The market has inflated almost another 40%, so staying gives us pause, as well as current market conditions. Realtors we have good connections with agree that if we put our home on the market today, it would be sold in 3 days, we could see up to 40% over asking at current market pricing, close in sub-30 days, no inspection, cash buyer. We stand to walk away with a check for approximately $1.4-$1.7M. Our home comprises a significant percentage of our net worth, as is often seen in HCOL areas. This would be a way to cash out in an advantageous market and put a good chunk of our net worth in our pocket, rather than in our home--until we find a way to solve that problem.

    The problem we face is, anywhere locally, we'd be competing in the same overheated, meth-fueled market. We've looked at the inland Northwest, much cheaper, but still wildly inflated. We worry that being so far away from strong urban cores and major employment could be disastrous if the market sees a significant retraction -- which is very possible. Not to mention a retraction in home prices, which could take more than a decade to recover.

    Another option we've considered is hitting the road for a year--or two--in an RV--something we have experience with, but not yet full-time. This would cause us to significantly pare back our possessions, which could be good or bad. I really prefer rural settings with land and privacy, but I think I could tolerate a year+ of itinerant living. I just don't know how to solve the problem of eventually settling down again--and would 2 years even present an opportunity to buy back in or find something significantly cheaper? We need to stay on the West Coast. Staying put is very safe. Leaving is very advantageous but may come at the cost of ever having something as nice as we do right now, in an area we want to be. But if we did the calculations, our home sale could accelerate retirement provided we found much cheaper real-estate.

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by ua_guy; 02-27-2022, 09:33 AM.
    History will judge the complicit.

  • #2
    Originally posted by ua_guy View Post
    A little over a year and few months ago we bought back into our "home" northwest market after spending some time in a different state for work. We hadn't planned on moving but we stood to make a sizable profit on the house we owned, so that factored into our decision. When we bought back in, that money went right back into purchasing a home in the same market conditions, but only inflated about 10% at that point.

    We generally like our current home and is a place we could stay for a long time. The market has inflated almost another 40%, so staying gives us pause, as well as current market conditions. Realtors we have good connections with agree that if we put our home on the market today, it would be sold in 3 days, we could see up to 40% over asking at current market pricing, close in sub-30 days, no inspection, cash buyer. We stand to walk away with a check for approximately $1.4-$1.7M. Our home comprises a significant percentage of our net worth, as is often seen in HCOL areas. This would be a way to cash out in an advantageous market and put a good chunk of our net worth in our pocket, rather than in our home--until we find a way to solve that problem.

    The problem we face is, anywhere locally, we'd be competing in the same overheated, meth-fueled market. We've looked at the inland Northwest, much cheaper, but still wildly inflated. We worry that being so far away from strong urban cores and major employment could be disastrous if the market sees a significant retraction -- which is very possible. Not to mention a retraction in home prices, which could take more than a decade to recover.

    Another option we've considered is hitting the road for a year--or two--in an RV--something we have experience with, but not yet full-time. This would cause us to significantly pare back our possessions, which could be good or bad. I really prefer rural settings with land and privacy, but I think I could tolerate a year+ of itinerant living. I just don't know how to solve the problem of eventually settling down again--and would 2 years even present an opportunity to buy back in or find something significantly cheaper? We need to stay on the West Coast. Staying put is very safe. Leaving is very advantageous but may come at the cost of ever having something as nice as we do right now, in an area we want to be. But if we did the calculations, our home sale could accelerate retirement provided we found much cheaper real-estate.

    Thoughts?
    I don't think you will get a market pullback that makes it worth selling. If you want to go because you want adventure then do it. If you want to sell to pocket cash, i'd hesitate. Because you are going to end up back where you began and in 2 years I think you'll be priced out of the market. I worry we're priced out of the market and we own a home. I worry that the house I want is ridiculous (it is) but honest even finding something i want is not going to happen.

    If you want to live in an RV for the sake of living in an RV then do it. But I think doing it to pocket money is a bad idea.

    Now a suggestion would be pocketing $500k and downsizing your current home into something smaller and resetting your basis and $500k and still living in RV. But have you been in the house you would sell for 2 years? If not then you don't get the $500k tax free....Inflation is burning dollars and causing a rapid rise in home prices. I don't know if it'll drop enough with inflation running so hot. Inflation has made owning a home something stupid cheap.
    LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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    • #3
      Sell and rent would be a choice to lock in this gain.

      sell and move to lower cost of living but you’re stuck in the west coast.

      sell and downgrade to a lesser home that probably costs about what you paid for the current home.

      I would stay put until you have a need to move. Like retirement.

      Comment


      • #4
        Two years is the time needed to sell and avoid capital gains taxes.
        That would be something that I would consider before making a move.

        Personally, I don't know if I could do the RV thing, but if it's something that you enjoy, then by all means.

        I don't see the rug being pulled out from under the housing market anytime soon.
        You would probably wash out by selling then rebuying in a year or two.

        Do you have the capital to just keep your home and rent it out while you do your RV adventure?

        Brian

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        • #5
          The taxes are a stickler. We took the exemption once already in the last two years so we aren't eligible until almost next year. That would be ugly if we transacted before then.

          Depending on who I talk to, the economy is in collapse and the housing market is set to implode as soon as tomorrow. Then again, folks were saying that last year too, and things have only gone up. But then asking if 2 years is enough to ride it out to swoop in and buy at basement prices....maybe that's not enough time! I guess uncertainty is the constant.

          Staying is a good option, this is a good place. The gains are unreal though and I wonder if there's an opportunity to make them real by doing something smarter or taking a bit of risk.
          History will judge the complicit.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by ua_guy View Post
            The taxes are a stickler. We took the exemption once already in the last two years so we aren't eligible until almost next year. That would be ugly if we transacted before then.

            Depending on who I talk to, the economy is in collapse and the housing market is set to implode as soon as tomorrow. Then again, folks were saying that last year too, and things have only gone up. But then asking if 2 years is enough to ride it out to swoop in and buy at basement prices....maybe that's not enough time! I guess uncertainty is the constant.

            Staying is a good option, this is a good place. The gains are unreal though and I wonder if there's an opportunity to make them real by doing something smarter or taking a bit of risk.
            You can cash out and go live in an RV when you hit the 2 year mark. I would. If you want a chance or push to live in the RV. But if you don't want to then I'm not sure it's worth it.
            LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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            • #7
              Originally posted by ua_guy View Post
              Staying is a good option, this is a good place. The gains are unreal though and I wonder if there's an opportunity to make them real by doing something smarter or taking a bit of risk.
              I don't personally follow our advocate for this strategy... But depending on the level of risk you want to accept, you could take out a HEL or cash-out refinance against your equity, then use the borrowed money to invest in either a rental property, or some other investment with a reasonable expectation of healthy, steady growth. Personal opinion: that's too much risk for me to palate. But many, many investors (especially RE investors) do just that, and quite often to boot.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by kork13 View Post
                I don't personally follow our advocate for this strategy... But depending on the level of risk you want to accept, you could take out a HEL or cash-out refinance against your equity, then use the borrowed money to invest in either a rental property, or some other investment with a reasonable expectation of healthy, steady growth. Personal opinion: that's too much risk for me to palate. But many, many investors (especially RE investors) do just that, and quite often to boot.
                That's a "go to" strategy with RE investors.
                There are actually still lenders who will let you take a HELOC out against a rental property, although doing a cash out refi on a rental is more common and easier to do.
                Brian

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                • #9
                  It's not necessarily too much risk, but maybe too much risk right now. I'm nervous of being "stuck" with anything...a primary residence or a rental/investment property...prior trauma from the recession era.. Then again, HAD we invested in rental properties in the last 10 years, we'd be really happy right about now and might be a lot closer to an early retirement!!
                  History will judge the complicit.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ua_guy View Post
                    It's not necessarily too much risk, but maybe too much risk right now. I'm nervous of being "stuck" with anything...a primary residence or a rental/investment property...prior trauma from the recession era.. Then again, HAD we invested in rental properties in the last 10 years, we'd be really happy right about now and might be a lot closer to an early retirement!!
                    I can't tell you that a lot of GenXers feel the same having been stuck with the 2008 housing crash right after the 2000 bubble pop.
                    LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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                    • #11
                      If you own real estate, then I advise you to sell your house in the face of these price increases. It will be a profitable operation.

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