FIRE success rate

**corn18** · 01-18-2018, 02:26 AM

I use 100%. But there are studies that show calculators like firecalc and flexible retirement planner are conservative because the Monte Carlo simulation does not account for reversion to mean. The analysis show that 80% might mean you are good to go.

I use the calculators as a tool. Would never decide to retire based on a calculator alone. I use 25 x expenses as well. And I have a retirement spreadsheet that is another tool. I blend the info from all the sources to get a spectrum of where I�m at.

**snafu** · 01-18-2018, 10:25 AM

Isn't being 'Financially Independent' a numerical target to aim at, to help you focus on the future that feels so ephemeral? What does retirement mean to you?

1st, Luck quotient, how many natural/not of your making, disasters will you avoid? Does your genetic history set any roadblocks? What are you doing to create and maintain good health? Are you in a warm, supportive and nurturing relationship? What 'lifestyle' are you aiming for? How many streams of income are you comfortable managing? Are your children on the road to successful launch?

**corn18** · 01-18-2018, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by snafu View Post

Isn't being 'Financially Independent' a numerical target to aim at, to help you focus on the future that feels so ephemeral? What does retirement mean to you?

1st, Luck quotient, how many natural/not of your making, disasters will you avoid? Does your genetic history set any roadblocks? What are you doing to create and maintain good health? Are you in a warm, supportive and nurturing relationship? What 'lifestyle' are you aiming for? How many streams of income are you comfortable managing? Are your children on the road to successful launch?

This is a great thought exercise. How do you know when you've won the game? There was just a guy over on bogleheads.org (newbie) who just got laid off and was asking for advice on how to survive. He has $24k of annual expenses and $3.5M of retirement savings. Age 57. He was worried about how long it would take to find a new job and continuing to grow his retirement savings. We all chimed in and said RETIRE! You have won the game. You have enough money to retire and spend 4x what you are spending now. But he's not comfortable with that because all of his colleagues have $10M in retirement savings.

Wow. If a guy with $3.5M of savings can't retire then I am in big trouble.

I have a military pension with a COLA, health care for life for myself and my wife, and enough retirement savings to have $70k / year forever in spending money. I could retire today and be ok with that. But I enjoy my job and they pay well, so I'd like to get that up to $100k / year by age 54. Then $150k/ year by age 57. If at any time I grow weary of the game, I can retire or just do something different for less money. Looking at it this way is very refreshing and empowering for me.

**disneysteve** · 01-18-2018, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by corn18 View Post

There was just a guy over on bogleheads.org (newbie) who just got laid off and was asking for advice on how to survive. He has $24k of annual expenses and $3.5M of retirement savings. Age 57.

I've read a number of articles talking about how after decades of focus on retirement savings, most people aren't prepared for actually retiring and living off of their nest eggs. As the baby boomers have hit retirement age, I've started seeing more articles and ads geared toward this topic. It was never really a thing before because previous generations largely had pensions and didn't live nearly as long.

**Singuy** · 01-18-2018, 03:02 PM

150%

You never know, I might get bored in retirement and ends up buying a Ferrari.

**LivingAlmostLarge** · 01-18-2018, 09:47 PM

I can say I don't know. I'm just thinking more concrete numbers now.

**phantom** · 01-19-2018, 05:28 PM

I like to run FIRECalc a few times a year, and when I do I am usually looking at several different scenarios. For any given savings plan, I like to see what would happen if I spend as conservatively as I can imagine in retirement and what would happen if I spend much more freely in retirement. I consider a plan to be a good one if I get 100% success with conservative spending and if the sort of spending that gives me 80% success sounds pretty enjoyable.

I'm still a pretty long way from actually retiring, but I imagine that I'll still be looking to see the same thing in FIRECalc right before I actually retire: I'll want to know that I can ensure success by being conservative and that there will be room for some luxury so long as things go well.

I figure it's unlikely that I'll stop running numbers and reevaluating my plan once I retire. I plan on retiring with enough flexibility that if my chances of running out of money start going up, I can spend less. And, if I ever hit the point where FIRECalc says my worst case scenario is dying with millions, I can always up the amount I'm giving and spending.

**LivingAlmostLarge** · 01-30-2018, 09:53 PM

Its' hard to picture spending the money you've spent all this time amassing.

**Drake3287** · 01-31-2018, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post

Its' hard to picture spending the money you've spent all this time amassing.

To be honest, this is a real problem (a good problem though) and I've even posted about it a few times. I think many of us like myself have been savers all through our career's and find it hard to actually spend the money once retired.

Although I retired early (FIRE), I've as yet to touch any of my savings or investments. Still live the same life style with my pension.

**disneysteve** · 01-31-2018, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post

Its' hard to picture spending the money you've spent all this time amassing.

Definitely. We're not there yet but I'm sure it will be quite strange drawing our income from our savings rather than from a paycheck.

**Gailete** · 01-31-2018, 04:38 PM

What please is the FIRE you all are talking about? Whatever it is, I'm sure it won't be telling me to retire though. Wow a guy with $24K in yearly expenses and $3.5 mill doesn't think he can afford to retire is mind boggling.

**disneysteve** · 01-31-2018, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by Gailete View Post

What please is the FIRE you all are talking about? Whatever it is, I'm sure it won't be telling me to retire though. Wow a guy with $24K in yearly expenses and $3.5 mill doesn't think he can afford to retire is mind boggling.

FIRE stands for financial independence and retire early.

**Gailete** · 01-31-2018, 05:21 PM

Thanks Steve.

**Like2Plan** · 02-01-2018, 04:39 AM

Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

I've read a number of articles talking about how after decades of focus on retirement savings, most people aren't prepared for actually retiring and living off of their nest eggs. As the baby boomers have hit retirement age, I've started seeing more articles and ads geared toward this topic. It was never really a thing before because previous generations largely had pensions and didn't live nearly as long.

This is something that I have experienced. During the accumulation phase it seems like a single minded goal--save for retirement! After I retired I had a broad brush idea of what to do with my retirement savings, but little idea on the actual mechanics. I am still educating myself on the most tax efficient way to use retirement funds.

FIRE success rate