Recession Fears Causing Markets to Sell off Worldwide

[bjl584]

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

[disneysteve]

The fear mongering is ridiculous. The world and especially US economies are in the best shape they’ve been in for decades. There are some exceptions like England, China, and Brazil, but overall we’re in great shape, especially here. A periodic pullback is totally normal and healthy for the markets. This is a blip that we won’t remember or care about a year from now.

[Like2Plan]

I guess the gains we've seen lately were like a soufflé--all hot air. LOL. I'm just looking at the price of VTI 6 months ago--it was in the $244/SH range. The 52 week low as of today is $202.44.
Today, the opening price is $262.90. I have no idea what the market will do next, but it is way too early to start using the "R" word. Maybe folks were hoping for an interest rate cut and it doesn't seem like it is going to happen this time around?

[Fishindude77]

We are due for a recession, things have been pretty good for pretty long.
The forty years I was in business, we had 3-4 significant recessions that really put the squeeze on our business, required layoffs, people really squeezed, etc.

There has been a ton of artificial money pumped into our economy last few years via government spending; covid, green new deal, infrastructure investment and jobs act, etc. that will have to be reckoned with at some point.

If you don't carry a bunch of debt and have some cash, these slow downs can be great opportunities to improve your wealth.

[kork13]

Not sure what things look like, I mostly just ignore the noise. But I also get dozens of mini-alerts for news stuff every day .... Today included the Nikkei index (Japanese industry) tanked 13% in a day. Woof!! That's definitely in "bad day" territory, if not "really bad day" ... Anybody buying extra shares on the dip?

I guess I should look at the S&P500 out of morbid curiosity....

[james.hendrickson]

Yes, the pre-market numbers were brutal last night.

That said, sell off happen - they're not great, but they illustrate the value of buying quality diversified companies and holding for the long term.

[ua_guy]

Reminds me of "bad" quarterly results. "We only made a record 15 billion in net profit instead of the 20 our analysts were hallucinating about, so lay off 5% of the workforce and initiate stock buybacks with the record profit, after we just artificially tanked the price"

But, jobless claims are slightly up (still in normal operating range), new job creation is down (but still very positive). It ebbs, it flows. For some this is the smocking gun that the economy is in a bad place because the numbers moved in a slight way as to support their narrative.

I did take the opportunity to move $15k from a CD that was recalled into an ETF. I don't time purchases, but it traded at market close on Friday which was steeply down.

[Like2Plan]

Anybody buying extra shares on the dip?

I bought my shares several days ago before the dip. (Like I always do. )

[disneysteve]

Anybody buying extra shares on the dip?

Completely unrelated to current market conditions, I put in an order yesterday to buy $35,000 of VTI in my Roth with a bunch of cash that had accumulated. However, at the same time, I also put in an order to sell $40,000 worth of VWNAX in my inherited IRA. So I actually reduced our overall equity stake by $5,000 today. I've been gradually working toward shifting our AA to be a bit more conservative.

[kork13]

It ebbs, it flows. For some this is the smocking gun that the economy is in a bad place because the numbers moved in a slight way as to support their narrative.

If it's any reassurance, "Economists say no reason to panic". Basically, very similar to what Fishindude said, there's alot of artificial influence that has pumped up the market the last few years, and this may simply be a correction for that. My father is definitely one of those that has lost faith in stocks... He's moved almost everything to cash. He'll be fine, so I don't pressure him too much, but I do still try to temper his distrust of the markets.

For my part, I do happen to have my weekly investment purchases going through today. Not alot, just $625/wk currently... But hey, I'll enjoy the bonus shares.

I do also have about $25k sitting around in MM as dry powder ... So I could definitely take more advantage, but for now, I only added $3k into my stock MFs. But for the rest, I'll wait a bit longer & see how things shape up. Personally, I expect at least a couple more days of this mini-panic. And as I've learned from past sell-offs, getting too greedy too quickly can burn you.

[srblanco7]

S&P 500 still up 8.8% YTD (even after the drop today). This may be a blip, a trend, or the start of a recession. I certainly don't know. As such, a 100% chance, I'll do nothing in the near term. If things continue down, I may look for an opportunity to buy more.

[disneysteve]

S&P 500 still up 8.8% YTD (even after the drop today). This may be a blip, a trend, or the start of a recession. I certainly don't know. As such, a 100% chance, I'll do nothing in the near term. If things continue down, I may look for an opportunity to buy more.

Unemployment ticked up a bit but remains at historically low levels. The stock market pulled back a bit but hit record highs just days ago. Inflation is close to target levels. Interest rates are poised to begin dropping as soon as next month. The economy is strong. A recession in the immediate future may or may not happen (I think not), and if there is one, which would be a perfectly normal phase of the economic cycle, it's unlikely to be prolonged. This stuff happens. There have been 8 recessions in my lifetime and I'm sure there will be a few more in the remainder of my life. I'm not concerned and I'm not changing anything.

[disneysteve]

Oh look, the Nikkei is back up 11% in Tuesday trading so far. I think we’re going to see some wild swings and lots of volatility ahead.

[james.hendrickson]

Per Twitter...

https://x.com/i/status/1820350933957771402

[kork13]

Oh look, the Nikkei is back up 11% in Tuesday trading so far. I think we’re going to see some wild swings and lots of volatility ahead.

I will say that there's alot of other things happening here in Japan impacting Nikkei beyond the US's outsized influence -- in the last week, they've also started to back off from some loose economic policies very roughly comparable to our "Qualitative Easing" shenanigans .... So Japan's economy is reeling from multiple hits, and shouldn't totally be taken as a 'canary in the coal mine' indicator for global markets.