The Crazy Tesla Play

[Tabs]

Ran across another video that compared a hybrid and an EV while embarking on a road trip. The video is fairly long for YouTube, but these guys are pretty amusing to watch.

[greenskeeper]

You guys charge your battery packs, I'm firing up my 7.3 T44E diesel (with ZERO emission controls from the factory) in my crew cab truck and heading to the mountains....enjoy the holiday weekend.

[james.hendrickson]

Whats crazy about Tesla...is increasingly looking like the CEO.

There has been a ton of bad press about senior people leaving the company. Turnover is a red flag in and of itself.

From Reuters, here is a list of key staff departures in 2018

May - Matthew Schwall, director of field performance engineering, exits to join Alphabet Inc's self-driving unit, Waymo.

April - Jim Keller, head of Autopilot hardware engineering, leaves for Intel to lead its silicon engineering team.

April - Georg Ell, director of Tesla's Western Europe operations, leaves to head UK-based Smoothwall.

March - Chief Accounting Officer Eric Branderiz exits after joining in October 2016.

March - Susan Repo, corporate treasurer and vice president of finance, exits to become chief financial officer at another company.

February - Jon McNeill, president of global sales and services, leaves to join ride-hailing company Lyft as chief operating officer.

January - Jason Mendez, director of manufacturing engineering, leaves after more than 12 years.

January - Will McColl, manager of equipment engineering, leaves after seven years.

Elon Musk recently went on the Joe Rogan show, smoked marijuana and drank whiskey. This isn't illegal, but it might be a violation of Tesla's company policy and could impact its federal contract eligibility.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/WMi19Wpofmk

The Joe Rogan interview resulted in an drop in the share price of Tesla and an increase in its bond yields.

Bottom line - there are increasing red flags with Musk's leadership of Tesla.

[corn18]

And he's in trouble with the Air Force, which puts SpaceX at risk:

The U.S. Air Force has begun looking into Elon Musk apparently smoking weed on a podcast, a source at the military branch told CNBC on Friday.

Musk's SpaceX provides services for the Air Force, with multiple high-value contracts. Marijuana use is prohibited for someone with a government security clearance, Fox Business reported, and is the central issue in the Air Force's inquiry.

An Air Force spokesperson, in a statement to CNBC, said: "We will need time to determine the facts and the appropriate process to handle the situation."

[james.hendrickson]

And he's in trouble with the Air Force, which puts SpaceX at risk:

The U.S. Air Force has begun looking into Elon Musk apparently smoking weed on a podcast, a source at the military branch told CNBC on Friday.

Musk's SpaceX provides services for the Air Force, with multiple high-value contracts. Marijuana use is prohibited for someone with a government security clearance, Fox Business reported, and is the central issue in the Air Force's inquiry.

An Air Force spokesperson, in a statement to CNBC, said: "We will need time to determine the facts and the appropriate process to handle the situation."

Yep - its grounds for losing your clearance.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

But you have to plan where you stay and where you drive to get a supercharger for your tesla if you go anywhere. Our friends have to plan all of that when just get in and drive. I think in the future if it becomes more prevalent and faster it's a different scenario. But personally only going 300 miles and then stopping for at least an hour? Versus just fueling for a few minutes and moving along seems like a waste of time.

[Singuy]

Yep - its grounds for losing your clearance.

This is why I LOVE Tesla stocks. Bunch of fake news and rumors circulating around while the nuggets of truth are buried under sensationalized headlines. Then when the numbers are out, the stock skyrockets because "who would have thought?" headlines are all over the news. This is exactly what happened to AMD. Nothing but trash news about AMD because many investors on mainstream media are investors of Intel and Nvidia. A bunch of us longs knew Intel had trouble with 10nm a long time ago, 6 months before the analysts knew. I decided my stock picking strategy hinges on "misunderstood stocks". Tesla currently is a perfect example.

Anyways, here's the fake news created by CNBC and Foxnews debunked about the airforce.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk-air-force/reports-of-air-force-reviewing-musks-security-clearance-inaccurate-u-s-air-force-idUSKCN1LN2OF

[Singuy]

But you have to plan where you stay and where you drive to get a supercharger for your tesla if you go anywhere. Our friends have to plan all of that when just get in and drive. I think in the future if it becomes more prevalent and faster it's a different scenario. But personally only going 300 miles and then stopping for at least an hour? Versus just fueling for a few minutes and moving along seems like a waste of time.

When was the last time you took a road trip with your family in a Toyota Corolla size sedan? Almost never? The use case you are talking about never happens to me. I either rent a car for road trips or I fly. So unless your daily commute is 200 miles each way, I really don't see why I would base my entire car purchase on the lack of ability to go on a road trip slightly slower than a gas car. Now the time I save over the life of the car by just spending 10 seconds to plug in my car in my garage vs going to a gas station once weekly will add up to be 5.4 days over 10 years. Yes, 0.25 x 52weeks x 10 years = 5.4 days!

And this is today. By 2020, Tesla chargers 3.0 will roll out with a 800miles/hr charging time. You can fill up your 300 mile tank in 20 mins. I think for those rare cases you do need to use the car in such a fashion, it'll be just fine.

[disneysteve]

When was the last time you took a road trip with your family in a Toyota Corolla size sedan?

A Corolla, never, but a Camry many many times since that's what I've driven since 1991.

If they can speed up charging so you can get 300 miles in 20 minutes, that would be nice, though LAL's point about having to plan out your route still holds true unless charging locations become as ubiquitous as gas stations are today. The easiest way, I suppose, would be if gas stations add charging stations to their existing properties. If I know I have to search around, or drive miles out of my way, to charge up, I'd have a problem with that.

[Singuy]

A Corolla, never, but a Camry many many times since that's what I've driven since 1991.

If they can speed up charging so you can get 300 miles in 20 minutes, that would be nice, though LAL's point about having to plan out your route still holds true unless charging locations become as ubiquitous as gas stations are today. The easiest way, I suppose, would be if gas stations add charging stations to their existing properties. If I know I have to search around, or drive miles out of my way, to charge up, I'd have a problem with that.

I understand a Tesla at its current state is not for everyone. I know a hundred years of going to the gas station vs charging at home with a 300 mile range can seem limiting. That's okay. Tesla's mission is to completely put a smack down to gasoline cars. 2.0 version of Tesla cars will carry 1.5-2x the battery pack. In conjunction with supercharger 3.0s, we will be talking about cars with 500+ miles range that can be charged in 35 mins. I would say most people would want to at least eat something after a 7 hour drive.

The side effect of doubling the battery pack is doubling performance. This means all future Teslas will go 0-60 in under 3 seconds. Tesla today is the only car company that can get you 0-60 in under 5 seconds with a MPG of 133 miles/gallon. If that's not good enough, how about twice the acceleration , twice the range, and with the same mpg?

[corn18]

All the performance in the world doesn’t mean squat. What matters right now for Tesla is to manage their debt. I just read through their 10k and 2Q18 10Q. They generate a reasonable profit which means there is a viable business there. But they are bleeding cash to make it all happen. That’s fine if it generates growth. If it doesn’t, they will not be able to manage their debt load and could be destroyed by it.

[Singuy]

All the performance in the world doesn’t mean squat. What matters right now for Tesla is to manage their debt. I just read through their 10k and 2Q18 10Q. They generate a reasonable profit which means there is a viable business there. But they are bleeding cash to make it all happen. That’s fine if it generates growth. If it doesn’t, they will not be able to manage their debt load and could be destroyed by it.

When it comes to car companies, performance means a lot. There's a reason why all the car manufactures participate in Lemans, F1s, and all the other races. Performance markets the brand. And we know with Apple and Bose, brand recognition gives the company superior margins vs similar products.

Tom, you do realize that every company I recommend is a growth stock right? It means the balance sheet are usually a mess and it's more or less speculative hoping for these companies to be disruptive enough for multibagging.

[corn18]

When it comes to car companies, performance means a lot. There's a reason why all the car manufactures participate in Lemans, F1s, and all the other races. Performance markets the brand. And we know with Apple and Bose, brand recognition gives the company superior margins vs similar products.

Tom, you do realize that every company I recommend is a growth stock right? It means the balance sheet are usually a mess and it's more or less speculative hoping for these companies to be disruptive enough for multibagging.

I do. Not a bad bet. Until I looked at their financials, I assumed they were underwater because of the cars. Now that I know they can make money on the cars, I’ll keep an eye on their cash and debt. Not being as brave as you, I'll wait for the balance sheet to improve before I think about investing.

[Singuy]

That makes you a value investor. You probably sleep better at night investing in Tesla once it's a 500 billion market cap company giving out a 1.5% dividend with tons of cash in the bank. I'm in it for the speculation, that road to 500 billion. Tesla may just fail on the way. I am a firm believer that Tesla will either succeed or gets bought out. The brand is too strong to fail. My risk tolerance allows for these kind of speculation or maybe I'm just younger and more stupid..lol. All the stock in the world was once a speculative stock. Apple, Intel, Microsoft, and Google are now names for value investors, but once upon a time, they we're worth less than 20 billion.

[corn18]

That makes you a value investor. You probably sleep better at night investing in Tesla once it's a 500 billion market cap company giving out a 1.5% dividend with tons of cash in the bank. I'm in it for the speculation, that road to 500 billion. Tesla may just fail on the way. I am a firm believer that Tesla will either succeed or gets bought out. The brand is too strong to fail. My risk tolerance allows for these kind of speculation or maybe I'm just younger and more stupid..lol. All the stock in the world was once a speculative stock. Apple, Intel, Microsoft, and Google are now names for value investors, but once upon a time, they we're worth less than 20 billion.

Agree. My personal index fund (1 share of each company) is all value stocks that I use their products. If I buy a Tesla, I will buy one share of their stock.

I like what Elon is trying to do. He has been irritating for my company as we compete with him in the space market. No way he can get launch costs down to $10k/lbs. His lack of experience will result in payloads exploding all the time. How can he develop a launch vehicle that fast? Blah, blah, blah... Well, he's doing it and now we are adjusting to the new norm that HE has created. I like that kind of crazy.