Will the market continue upward trend?

[EasyMoney00]

As of now we've been getting some relief with the markets. Our accounts are down approx $110k from the high's. We will see what the coming months bring. Wish I had a crystal ball.

[Tabs]

I don't have a crystal ball either, but the recent rebound is due to the market reacting to Trump pausing his own tariffs. Unfortunately, unless something changes, that pause comes off July 1. Meanwhile, tariffs against China are still in effect and have only increased. The effects of that could be felt within a couple of weeks time. Again, I have no crystal ball, but these are the facts of the matter right now, and honestly, it doesn't look good.

Despite the small rebound, my own portfolio is also suffering from a loss of over six figures since January 2025.

[ua_guy]

I think this market pop is temporary, and it's still off from its high by almost 10%. A few contributing factors to the swing are a couple of tech companies have released better than projected earnings, and even TSLA gained with the news that it had (or is?) considering replacing its CEO. I'm glad that what I've bought since January is at least treading water, but still very happy that that most of my investments are out of the stock market and have been earning since I sold.

Uncertainty is still extremely high, and I have zero confidence that continued tariff threats are netting anything meaningful, in fact, I think it's accomplishing the opposite.

[kork13]

My crystal ball is foggy. Ask me in a month, then I'll tell you all about next week.

Realistically, the market writ large does not like uncertainty & instability, and it's struggling to keep up with all of those exact inputs coming from the administration. I'm never one to try predicting what the market will do in a week let alone next month .... But it's an even more impossible task with ephemeral decision makers in charge.

So what are we to do?

..... Ignore the noise. Just keep following your personal investment strategy & let the fools in DC play with themselves. Keep your eye firmly on the 10-30yr horizon, and what's happening this week or this month are pretty meaningless.

[srblanco7]

My crystal ball is foggy. Ask me in a month, then I'll tell you all about next week.

Realistically, the market writ large does not like uncertainty & instability, and it's struggling to keep up with all of those exact inputs coming from the administration. I'm never one to try predicting what the market will do in a week let alone next month .... But it's an even more impossible task with ephemeral decision makers in charge.

So what are we to do?

..... Ignore the noise. Just keep following your personal investment strategy & let the fools in DC play with themselves. Keep your eye firmly on the 10-30yr horizon, and what's happening this week or this month are pretty meaningless.

Agree with maintaining the long-term perspective as it relates to our investments. Nevertheless, I’ll still keep an eye on how soon and how material the tariff impacts ripple thru daily lives. The forecast seems to be that “everyday Americans” will start realizing the impact over the next few weeks.

[disneysteve]

Agree with maintaining the long-term perspective as it relates to our investments. Nevertheless, I’ll still keep an eye on how soon and how material the tariff impacts ripple thru daily lives. The forecast seems to be that “everyday Americans” will start realizing the impact over the next few weeks.

The real impact of the tax hike is just starting to hit, especially the elimination of the de minimis exemption which went into effect today. This is a huge deal that's going to have a tremendous negative impact on the American economy. More than 80% of all US e-commerce shipments fell under this exemption. That's about 4 million shipments every day, over 1.3 billion packages per year. As of today, all of those goods are going to potentially cost at least 145% more. The future doesn't look so bright if these taxes remain in place for very long. And no, you can't just "buy American" because very little of that stuff is made in America, and if it is, it's often with imported materials which are still subject to the higher taxes (and already cost more than the foreign equivalents).

I'm happy to have seen some recovery in the markets but no, I don't expect it to last. Q1 data didn't include this and only partially included the tax hike at all. Let's see what Q2 data looks like in a couple of months.

Personally, our portfolio is down nearly 300K from the peak back in February. Better than it was but still significant.

[Randomsaver]

May or may not but SPY will average 565 up to 2027 or even longer. Why? Because my future salary's not yet received from my company.

This is the 3rd time it would happen. The first was during pandemic. I cashed out pre-pandemic and bought a property. Then ppandemic allowed me to get back into the bus from 2019 up to end last year, where I cashed out and bought a property anew. Now we have tariff war which would last at leat 3 years and would allow me to get back into the bus. Then for the 3rd time, cash out and buy property.

[Jluke]

I dunno. Up, down, flat seems to be the norm and in no particular order for a short period of time. Historical trend has been upwards at least.

vanguard has been emailing me / advertising about buying partial shares of ETFs so I just made a plan to send $100 or $200 every other week and will add more VTI through partial shares in my taxable account

[kork13]

vanguard has been emailing me / advertising about buying partial shares of ETFs so I just made a plan to send $100 or $200 every other week and will add more VTI through partial shares in my taxable account

Do they let us make automatic ETF purchases yet? I quit using the ETFs because manually setting up purchases was annoying, especially once I started making a DCA purchase weekly.

[srblanco7]

The real impact of the tax hike is just starting to hit, especially the elimination of the de minimis exemption which went into effect today. This is a huge deal that's going to have a tremendous negative impact on the American economy. More than 80% of all US e-commerce shipments fell under this exemption. That's about 4 million shipments every day, over 1.3 billion packages per year. As of today, all of those goods are going to potentially cost at least 145% more. The future doesn't look so bright if these taxes remain in place for very long. And no, you can't just "buy American" because very little of that stuff is made in America, and if it is, it's often with imported materials which are still subject to the higher taxes (and already cost more than the foreign equivalents).

I'm happy to have seen some recovery in the markets but no, I don't expect it to last. Q1 data didn't include this and only partially included the tax hike at all. Let's see what Q2 data looks like in a couple of months.

Personally, our portfolio is down nearly 300K from the peak back in February. Better than it was but still significant.

Interesting article in the WSJ this morning, featuring input from the CEO of a logistics company. In summary, his view is that the tariffs (if they remain in place for the longer term) will be disruptive to large companies but destructive for small businesses. In short, many small businesses do not have the option to source their goods from anywhere except China. His prediction is that thousands of small businesses could be destroyed with employment for millions impacted. Alarmist perhaps and I’d like to think that cooler heads would prevail before this outcome was realized.

FWIW, the last peak I had captured for our portfolio was in Oct 2024 and we’re down about $235k since.

[Jluke]

Do they let us make automatic ETF purchases yet? I quit using the ETFs because manually setting up purchases was annoying, especially once I started making a DCA purchase weekly.

Vanguard treats ETFs like stocks and for fractional purchases it seems to require market order only - can’t even set a limit order.

I set a purchase for x shares of VTI with $111 on Monday. This might help me to not try market timing in my taxable account, which I am not good at anyways.

[ua_guy]

There are a still a lot of Q1 earnings announcements coming, and a lot of big companies have pulled their guidance. I'm particularly interested to see what happens with travel/tourism - it's not looking good based on travel bookings. Q2 could be ominous as tariffs aren't truly priced in yet, but they should be by Q2 announcements. If we are to believe the volumes at the ports, we'll see the first big fallout of whimsical taxes in the next week or two when shelf inventory starts shrinking in a big way, and that's going to bump inflation. The DeMinimis exemption cancellation this week will set other companies spiraling here in a few weeks.

But, good for the government, they've collected an additional reported $17 Billion in your tax dollars since the new taxes began.

[EasyMoney00]

I started looking at the idea of tariffs in a different way. Myself along with most people buy too much crap. We all consume so much. To the point where our homes are so stuffed that we eventually have to purge things just to make space. Most of us are part of the problem. If or when prices do go up, maybe people will dial it back some. Probably wishful thinking. People are just addicted to buying things.

[ua_guy]

Those are some mental gymnastics for sure. Problem is, it makes all the crap we actually need more expensive and potentially harder to come by. I'm not sure I follow the logic here, not that there was any to begin with...

[disneysteve]

I started looking at the idea of tariffs in a different way. Myself along with most people buy too much crap. We all consume so much. To the point where our homes are so stuffed that we eventually have to purge things just to make space. Most of us are part of the problem. If or when prices do go up, maybe people will dial it back some. Probably wishful thinking. People are just addicted to buying things.

For better or worse, our economy is built on consumer spending. What do you think will happen to your retirement accounts if Americans suddenly become frugal? Millions of people will lose their jobs. Tens of thousands of stores will sit vacant.

Your thinking also ignores the fact that tariffs aren't just affecting the price of "crap". I went grocery shopping the other day. There was a big sign in the banana section explaining that bananas come from Columbia, Honduras, and Costa Rica, which are all subject to a 10% tariff so they were forced to raise the price by 10%. Lots of products can not be sourced in the US. They simply don't exist here. They must be imported. The prices of all of those things are affected by the tax hike. Good luck getting car repairs done. Lots of parts are made overseas. The cost of those is rising due to the tax hike, and the supply may be dwindling. Toilet paper got mentioned in another thread. Yes it's mainly produced in the US but a lot of the wood pulp used to make it comes from Canada and is now taxed higher under the new tariffs so necessities like that are going to increase in price right along with the consumer crap.

I agree with you that people buy too much junk but this isn't the way to fix that problem.