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I love Tesla (I only wish I could afford one of their cars) and with their announcement that they are planning to build a $5 billion battery factory and there recent car awards, it seems that they are here to stay. Warren Buffet says to invest in those things that capture your attention and you want or use. This would seem to be one of those for me. The problem is that the stock price is currently so high that I'm not sure that it makes sense. It's at $265 and went up 344% in 2013. It's gone up an additional 70% already this year (I wish I had bought it in 2012!!) Am I too late to cash in on this bandwagon?
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Ahhh, TSLA... Was wondering when someone would be asking about it. Perfect.
So, this is not trading/investing advice, but for myself, personally, when I see non-informed people asking about a stock, that means that the run is very, very near an end. (This is not a slight, but for anyone that trades less than 100 transactions a year, or spends less than 40 hours per week trading, I consider non-informed, when it comes to trading. This if course doesn't mean that people that spend more than 40 hours per week trading or 100 trades per year are informed, of course.)
Here is one way to think about things. When a stock runs up, it runs up because more and more people are buying it. Sentiment is more and more positive, and as more and more people buy it, there are less and less people that haven't heard about it, who are left to buy. At some point, nobody will be left to buy. Typically, this is when the least informed investors are buying.
When the most people have heard about a stock like TSLA, and are extolling it's virtues, then that means that sentiment is at a maximum, and people are the most bullish. This will also mark the top for the stock.
So, I hereby call the top on TSLA. Does this mean it will go down tomorrow? No. There are still a ton of shorts that are getting blown out and forced to cover. Does this mean that I will go short? oh heck no. But I definitely am going to stay away from going long on TSLA. So, what my prediction on TSLA is, is that we are at, or very near, a top. The price right now is 252.06$, as of Feb 27, 2014. It may go up to 300 in a few months, sure.
But I think it is far more likely to be trading at less than 100$ sometime between now and July 1, 2015. (Not 2014).
I will check back in a year, or when it hits 100$, whichever comes first.
And now back to lurking again.
gambler
p.s. Note that none of this post is trading advice. People need to do their own due diligence and research. By all means, if you like the stock, buy it. I am not formally financially qualified in any way. -
I shorted Tesla yesterday at $262 but got scared when I thought about Elon and how he might shave his armpits or some such news and send the stock to $400. I closed out the short position with only a $50 gain (barely worth my time and trading costs).
There are other stocks....cough Amazon cough...that are grossly overvalued but continue to go up.Comment
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I don't buy individual stocks, but IMO, the answer to your question is yes.Originally posted by hidden wallet View PostLast edited by feh; 02-28-2014, 10:44 AM.seek knowledge, not answers
personal financeComment
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I'm also going to call the top to the market. Hope I am wrong, but with the IBB pullback, I think it is imminent. Usually, the bios start tanking first, as the most speculative sector... Down we go, for the next year
Hope I am wrong, for the sake of people getting back into the market.
gComment
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Back in the 1990's everyone was wondering if Microsoft and Starbucks were at their height. Microsoft was on the grill for bundling IE with its OS, and some projections said Microsoft was going to get its hands cut off. My father kept thinking about buying some but never did. Whoops.
Same with Google, Apple.
Whoops.
In my mind, Tesla is the first company to do a meaningful electric vehicle in the modern automotive climate. Elon isn't the kind of guy that's going to sit around on his ass; innovation is up his sleeve. Shareholders may have to suffer the pitfalls of the modern market though, every time a Tesla goes in for service or suffers an accident, the price drops momentarily.History will judge the complicit.Comment
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Well, the shorts have been getting blown out and forced to cover for the past year, but I do believe their time will come and the price will get back to 100$. It may not happen tomorrow, or this week, but I do think it will happen. Anyway, I wish the longs best of luck, and the shorts as well. Although I don't think the shorts need to have luck on their side.
Good interview from Doug Kass, recorded a day or two ago:
gComment
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The consensus on TSLA is to short it...so I would say buy. It never does what everyone expects it to do. Just a simple strategy.Comment
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As usual, had I stuck to my plans and stayed short Tesla I would be up $6000 this morning. Oh well...typical.Comment
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TSLA is a cult concept stock where the momentum herd is dictating the price action. From a logical point of view it is priced a decade ahead of itself provided all goes well for it. 44 times book value is an absurd valuation to pay for the stock.Comment
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Actually, the consensus was that TSLA was going to a billion. It never does what everyone expects.Originally posted by Frank12 View Post
205.1$ now, we will see if 200$ holds. Significantly below my 252$ top call, but we will see where it goes from here. One other clue I had that 252$ was a top (at least, a bad idea to buy around that point) was that when I would tell people who bought TSLA (but were not traders) that I thought the stock was grossly overvalued at 250$, you could tell they would get offended that I could even question the holy TSLA.
Well, we will see where the stock goes from here. If it goes to 100$ as I think it will, maybe more people will become contrarians. Or I could be totally wrong and this could bounce at 200 and go back up to 300$. It is possible, although I am not going to either go short or long here. Just watching.
GLTAComment
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Ok. I like TSLA long here at 206 for a quick bounce to 220-225...
stop loss at 198. We will see.
I still believe it goes to 100 eventually.Comment
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I also think with all the recent negativity in TSLA, too many shorts hopped on board... so they will cover and bring this back up. Just as there can be too many bulls (ridiculous number during last earnings in the 250$ range), there can also be too many shorts. But to be clear, this is only a temporary situation, IMO. I believe the shorts will prevail, in the end (at 100$ per share)
Let's see what happens.Comment
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