Is Tesla a good buy?

[KTP]

... of course that video is closely followed by this one as my second favorite:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mC4tu1NhUA

Crazy! That guy called out every half point move. Sounded a bit hoarse after the end

[gambler2075]

Well, he IS Ben Lichtenstein after all... and it is his job.

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/ben-lichtenstein/9/200/348

Have a good w/e!

[gambler2075]

This is hilarious for biotech traders... However, if you haven't followed stocks like PRAN, GALE, MNKD, AMRN, etc etc, there are probably too many inside jokes you would miss....

nevertheless, here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WsGzzeDkl4

[gambler2075]

Oh my...

https://twitter.com/lx21/status/455122036377911296/photo/1

Remember, when people say that NOBODY can trade profitably, all you need is one counter-example to disprove that. What people _really_ should be saying is that it is extremely, extremely rare for people to trade profitably without at least 5-10 years of full-time trading experience, and even that doesn't guarantee profitability.

Oh, and in case you don't believe the pic, profit.ly verifies trades...

http://profit.ly/user/lx21

g

[KTP]

At first I thought that was your check Gambler!

A bit disappointed that it isn't.

With GILD up today I should break 70K which is not bad considering I started the account with less than 2K. But it has taken a decade.

Now to turn 70K into $2,450,000 over the next decade. I imagine it will be harder.

[gambler2075]

Good article on why I think the FDA might ease up on SRPT...

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/fda-returns-its-dark-ages_786828.html?nopager=1

[gambler2075]

Here we are, 6-7 weeks later, and TSLA is trading below 200$. Hopefully a few people didn't drink the "electric" kool-aid, so to speak and buy TSLA at 250 or higher. Once again, it was a terrible, terrible idea to buy when TSLA was 250+, and EVERYONE was bullish. It was getting a little annoying having people who have absolutely no business buying or selling individual stocks tell me how I was missing "the wave of the future" blah blah blah, by not buying TSLA. Yet, as I had seen so many times before, the top was marked by irrational bullishness. Where does TSLA go from here? I'd like to see 180, at this point... but as I said before, I think sub 100$ would be a reasonable level for the stock. Now this shouldn't be interpreted as buying or selling advice, but just a cautionary tale for people to really ask themselves what they are buying. Also, it reminds me of when AAPL was trading at 700 in Oct 2012... Sounds eerily similar, if you read the articles published the day after earnings (which was the high)

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/18/investing/apple-stock-high/

"So, how much higher can Apple's stock soar? Much will likely depend on the success of future products. But with a lineup that is expected to smash through more sales records, support for Apple's stock sees no signs of letting up.
In fact, Wall Street's most optimistic Apple analyst is predicting the stock to blow past $1,000 per share during the next year.
"We went into the iPhone 5 launch with high expectations, but even those were exceeded," said Brian White, analyst at Topeka Capital Markets, whose Apple stock target stands at $1,111. White was expecting pre-orders for the new device to come in between 1.3 million and 1.5 million."

That earnings was blowout, yes, but it also marked the top, and the extreme of bullishness. TSLA felt exactly the same way. Looking back at AAPL, the stock then proceeded to fall until about March 2013, which bottomed around 375. From 700, that was nearly a 50% fall, and 6 months later. So, looking at TSLA the same way, a fall of the same magnitude from 260 would put it at around 140 ish... And 6 months would put it at around Sep 2014. But remember, if we have a market pullback, TSLA could fall much faster... AAPL was falling from 700 to 375, when the stock market was pretty much in a bullmarket. So if we get a decent-sized pullback here, then I could see TSLA get to 100. I still stand by that prediction.

Ahhh, TSLA... Was wondering when someone would be asking about it. Perfect.

So, this is not trading/investing advice, but for myself, personally, when I see non-informed people asking about a stock, that means that the run is very, very near an end. (This is not a slight, but for anyone that trades less than 100 transactions a year, or spends less than 40 hours per week trading, I consider non-informed, when it comes to trading. This if course doesn't mean that people that spend more than 40 hours per week trading or 100 trades per year are informed, of course.)

Here is one way to think about things. When a stock runs up, it runs up because more and more people are buying it. Sentiment is more and more positive, and as more and more people buy it, there are less and less people that haven't heard about it, who are left to buy. At some point, nobody will be left to buy. Typically, this is when the least informed investors are buying.

When the most people have heard about a stock like TSLA, and are extolling it's virtues, then that means that sentiment is at a maximum, and people are the most bullish. This will also mark the top for the stock.

So, I hereby call the top on TSLA. Does this mean it will go down tomorrow? No. There are still a ton of shorts that are getting blown out and forced to cover. Does this mean that I will go short? oh heck no. But I definitely am going to stay away from going long on TSLA. So, what my prediction on TSLA is, is that we are at, or very near, a top. The price right now is 252.06$, as of Feb 27, 2014. It may go up to 300 in a few months, sure.

But I think it is far more likely to be trading at less than 100$ sometime between now and July 1, 2015. (Not 2014).

I will check back in a year, or when it hits 100$, whichever comes first.

And now back to lurking again.

gambler
p.s. Note that none of this post is trading advice. People need to do their own due diligence and research. By all means, if you like the stock, buy it. I am not formally financially qualified in any way.

[gambler2075]

If you pull up the 5 year NFLX chart on finance.google.com:

https://www.google.com/finance?q=nflx

you can see a high of ~295 on Jul 8, 2011, and a subsequent low of ~64 on Nov 25, 2011. That was a drop of 78%, over a period of 4 1/2 months.

If applied to TSLA, a 78% drop from 260 would have TSLA trading at:

0.22*260 = 57$

Now I am not saying it is going to ever get there (probably won't) but I wouldn't be surprised to see 100$ when all the bullishness disappears.

GLTA. Don't invest more than you can lose.

g

[KTP]

GILD dipped back down later in the day and I added back some August $62.50 calls for a sweet price. Might hold them past April 22 earnings, might sell calls against them, haven't decided. As you say, Gilead is a pretty stable company compared to Tesla.

My Gilead calls were up 30% this morning so I sold half. If things keep going this well I may have to send in one of those IRS checks...oh wait this is in my Roth account

[gambler2075]

TSLA oversold, intraday, imo. long 191.6, target ~196-7

[gambler2075]

stop loss 188

[gambler2075]

gotta head out for errands, selling TSLA essentially flat (well 192.4)

[KTP]

TSLA oversold, intraday, imo. long 191.6, target ~196-7

I agree with you there but I don't have enough cash settled to even make a trade worthwhile. That is the downside trading inside an IRA...no taxes but you have to wait days for cash to settle.

Otherwise I would probably be a buyer of Tesla at around $190 and ride it up to $200.

[gambler2075]

Wow, TSLA is crashing now... really interested to see where this bounces.

184.45 now.

[KTP]

The market is crashing a bit.

I am eying the Gilead calls I sold, wanting to buy them back but alas all of my cash is in some settlement ether.

Can't buy them in taxable either...don't want to get into wash sale mess.

So I will just sit back and watch the chaos for a few days.