Consumer confidence lowest since 2021

[ua_guy]

We're being punished for decades of wasteful government spending. Hopefully those days are numbered.

I'm not sure your disagreement with government spending constitutes "wasteful". I also reject this personally because I've been successful in my own goal setting to generate income for myself, so any punishing effect hasn't been effective on a scale that impacts me. But that's beside the point which is punishing the American public monetarily with tariffs doesn't seem like a useful course of action in the best interests of this country's financial health.

Also, negative inflation is something we don't want. That means the economy is contracting, people are out of work, and US output is shrinking. So it reasons that positive inflation is actually the goal, typically around +2%.

[Fishindude77]

If consumer confidence has tanked it's certainly not very visible here. New businesses and homes are rapidly popping up everywhere and all nearly all employers in the area are trying to hire more help.
Looks like a fairly robust economy to me.

The only place we are hearing about layoffs are federal employees which we should all be thrilled about. It's long past time to trim a bunch of the fat out of our bloated federal government.
Hopefully they will completely close some agencies and reduce the budgets of all that remain.

Regarding those tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum, they are needed. If we buy nothing but Chinese raw materials like this and allow our US based mills to go broke, that is a matter of national security.
Those are necessary industries in times of crisis.

Regarding the threats of tariffs to Canada and Mexico .... we share a continent with them and the US has carried the load forever anytime if comes to war or major economic issues. The least they could do is help us control the border issues.
Far as I'm concerned we need to get our act together with our neighbors and let the problems in middle east, Ukraine, etc. be dealt with by their neighbors.

The article posted is from CBS which leans liberal. This is just another left -vs- right, liberal -vs- conservative political debate disguised to insinuate there is something really dramatic changing with the economy over the last couple weeks and it's pretty clear which team everyone posting here supports.

[ua_guy]

If consumer confidence has tanked it's certainly not very visible here. New businesses and homes are rapidly popping up everywhere and all nearly all employers in the area are trying to hire more help.
Looks like a fairly robust economy to me.

The only place we are hearing about layoffs are federal employees which we should all be thrilled about. It's long past time to trim a bunch of the fat out of our bloated federal government.
Hopefully they will completely close some agencies and reduce the budgets of all that remain.

Regarding those tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum, they are needed. If we buy nothing but Chinese raw materials like this and allow our US based mills to go broke, that is a matter of national security.
Those are necessary industries in times of crisis.

Regarding the threats of tariffs to Canada and Mexico .... we share a continent with them and the US has carried the load forever anytime if comes to war or major economic issues. The least they could do is help us control the border issues.
Far as I'm concerned we need to get our act together with our neighbors and let the problems in middle east, Ukraine, etc. be dealt with by their neighbors.

The article posted is from CBS which leans liberal. This is just another left -vs- right, liberal -vs- conservative political debate disguised to insinuate there is something really dramatic changing with the economy over the last couple weeks and it's pretty clear which team everyone posting here supports.

Just because the article isn't on your side doesn't mean the entire CBS news organization is liberal. The article is pointing to a change in a standard metric used to assess consumer confidence through many administrations. The change is notable.

Again, I fail to understand how punishing the American consumer and doing harm to the economy helps us with any of these supposed issues.

I also disagree that employing our Veterans and providing them with benefits for their service is wasteful. I don't see keeping National Parks open as wasteful. I don't see funding medical research and cancer cures to be wasteful. In fact, I have yet to see any evidence of real "waste" which isn't surprising, since government organizations are typically run unbelievably lean, and are required to have open books. What exactly are you referring to when you describe waste?

[disneysteve]

That is a rate. To represent "coming down" it' would have to be -5 to -20%. I am sorry you can't comprehend that.

Yes, inflation is a rate. It doesn't refer to the actual prices. Prices always go up over time. The question is how quickly. Inflation spiked as a result of the pandemic and the aftermath of that including global supply chain disruption. Over the following years, the rate was brought down close to historic norms through Fed policy and overall recovery of business and industry. Now it's starting to rise again due to shifting policy in the other direction.

If you're waiting for prices to go down to pre-COVID levels, that's never going to happen. It doesn't matter what individual or which party is in control in DC. Deflation like that isn't going to happen hopefully. That would be exceedingly bad for everyone.

[Fishindude77]

I have yet to see any evidence of real "waste" which isn't surprising, since government organizations are typically run unbelievably lean, and are required to have open books. What exactly are you referring to when you describe waste?

There is no point in going much further with this conversation if you truly believe our federal government runs lean.
I guess you've not heard of the current administrations D.O.G.E. and all of the ridiculous things it has quickly uncovered? Or is the stuff they found all a big lie and false?

Ever do any work for the federal government? I have, quite a bit.
My experience is in construction and I can tell you that they can't throw money away fast enough. Private sector companies could get the same construction done at half what the feds pay.
The feds spec in so much wasteful, expensive junk that adds no value to a project that it would blow your mind.

[disneysteve]

The only place we are hearing about layoffs are federal employees which we should all be thrilled about.

I'm not thrilled. I'm horrified. People who have dedicated their lives to public service, helping you and me, are being tossed out like garbage no matter what they do or how critically important their jobs are. People aren't being fired based on poor performance or any other reasonable metric. They're just being fired to be fired. Already, thousands who were fired have been rehired or attempted to be rehired once those in control realized those jobs were needed and that the country couldn't function without them.

The entire Federal employee payroll is a tiny percentage of the budget. If you fired every single Fed employee, you'd barely move the needle. I'm all in favor of eliminating waste, but firing the people actually doing the work isn't going to accomplish that. It's actually going to cost the government a fortune in lost productivity and institutional knowledge, not to mention the millions that will be wasted battling all of the wrongful termination lawsuits for years to come. And the ripple effect on the broader economy is immeasurably large. It many areas, the Fed is the largest employer. Fire all of those people and what happens to the local economy? What happens to the hospitality industry (hotels, restaurants, stores) located near national parks when the parks shut down? Millions of people, not just Fed employees, will lose their jobs due to the firings that are occurring.

If you're thrilled about all of that, that's deeply disturbing.

[ua_guy]

I think pictures help sometimes. Here's what the market thinks right now.

[EasyMoney00]

I'm not thrilled. I'm horrified. People who have dedicated their lives to public service, helping you and me, are being tossed out like garbage no matter what they do or how critically important their jobs are. People aren't being fired based on poor performance or any other reasonable metric. They're just being fired to be fired. Already, thousands who were fired have been rehired or attempted to be rehired once those in control realized those jobs were needed and that the country couldn't function without them.

The entire Federal employee payroll is a tiny percentage of the budget. If you fired every single Fed employee, you'd barely move the needle. I'm all in favor of eliminating waste, but firing the people actually doing the work isn't going to accomplish that. It's actually going to cost the government a fortune in lost productivity and institutional knowledge, not to mention the millions that will be wasted battling all of the wrongful termination lawsuits for years to come. And the ripple effect on the broader economy is immeasurably large. It many areas, the Fed is the largest employer. Fire all of those people and what happens to the local economy? What happens to the hospitality industry (hotels, restaurants, stores) located near national parks when the parks shut down? Millions of people, not just Fed employees, will lose their jobs due to the firings that are occurring.

If you're thrilled about all of that, that's deeply disturbing.

Wow, you hit the nail on the head, dead center. My spouse is a federal employee. I guess I never really knew how people felt about government employees. I'm not entirely convinced people hate government employees as much as they're pretending to. Its almost like they're being motivated to hate them at the moment by certain individuals in power.

Anyway, what my wife and her group does is extremely important to anyone who has a medical condition. Her group prior to this debacle has been completely overworked and understaffed. If they downsize it's going to be a big problem for a lot of people.

Is there waste, definitely. Should it be cleaned up, of course. The problem is, the really hard working fed employees are being grouped in the same category as the sh*t heads. Now, the stigma surrounding all federal employees is they're dead weight and not needed. Morale in her group has absolutely plummeted. It's gotten to the point where no one will even talk on Microsoft teams because they're afraid of getting fired. She said it's more isolating now than ever.

What the administration is doing is just trying to make it as uncomfortable as possible to get rid of as many employees as they can. They're not even trying to weed out the dead beats. Why they're taking this approach is beyond me. It just doesn't make sense. If they're looking for efficiency, this is the absolute worst way of getting it.

People can't fathom how f*cked things can get without a lot of these fed employees, and government oversight. Just a trip to the grocery store could be deadly if there wasn't safely standards in place. And even with all the people who try to keep your food safe, things fall through the cracks. Now add car safety, highway safety, drugs, air travel, etc etc.

Everyone in my wife's group has been saving personal files to their DVD drive. (They aren't allowed to plug flash drives in.) They're saving resumes, pay stubs in case they need them for unemployment, along with other things.

As my wife said, it's time to lean into the stereotype that all government employees are lazy. I told her over the past few years to stop killing yourself over work. Maybe she'll finally listen.

[EasyMoney00]

There is no point in going much further with this conversation if you truly believe our federal government runs lean.
I guess you've not heard of the current administrations D.O.G.E. and all of the ridiculous things it has quickly uncovered? Or is the stuff they found all a big lie and false?

I hate to say it because I love this kind of stuff, but some of it was fake, or not quite what it seemed. The whole social security thing where people in the system were 150 years old wasn't the whole story. There were people that old still in the system, but they weren't getting paid. It had something to do with the programming language/database SS uses. Some super nerd went into great detail about it, not a DOGE employee. I really wanted this one to be true too!

I started a thread about the waste USAID had. It got quickly closed. Apparently they're going to keep necessary things in place such as food/supplies to other countries. But, no more funding for a sesame Street in Afghanistan or wherever. Yeah, that one was true.

The admin claiming they already saved 50 billion or so is false. Its been in the low single billions.

Trump did say something that actually made sense...we should cut the defense budget. I don't think the powers that be will ever allow this to happen but it's wishful thinking.

Anyway, it's Thursday, please release the Epstein list. It's supposed to be released to the public today.

Regarding social security:

Computer programmers quickly claimed that the 150 figure was not evidence of fraud but rather the result of a weird quirk of the Social Security Administration’s benefits system, which was largely written in COBOL, a 60-year-old programming language that undergirds SSA’s databases as well as systems from many other US government agencies.

COBOL is rarely used today, and as such, Musk’s cadre of young engineers may well be unfamiliar with it.

Because COBOL does not have a date type, some implementations rely instead on a system whereby all dates are coded to a reference point. The most commonly used is May 20, 1875, as this was the date of an international standards-setting conference held in Paris, known as the Convention du Mètre.

These systems default to the reference point when a birth date is missing or incomplete, meaning all of those entries in 2025 would show an age of 150.

That’s just one possible explanation for what DOGE allegedly found. Musk could also have simply looked up the SSA’s own website, which explains that since September 2015 the agency has automatically stopped benefit payments when anyone reaches the age of 115.

[ua_guy]

Wow, you hit the nail on the head, dead center. My spouse is a federal employee. I guess I never really knew how people felt about government employees. I'm not entirely convinced people hate government employees as much as they're pretending to. Its almost like they're being motivated to hate them at the moment by certain individuals in power.

Anyway, what my wife and her group does is extremely important to anyone who has a medical condition. Her group prior to this debacle has been completely overworked and understaffed. If they downsize it's going to be a big problem for a lot of people.

Is there waste, definitely. Should it be cleaned up, of course. The problem is, the really hard working fed employees are being grouped in the same category as the sh*t heads. Now, the stigma surrounding all federal employees is they're dead weight and not needed. Morale in her group has absolutely plummeted. It's gotten to the point where no one will even talk on Microsoft teams because they're afraid of getting fired. She said it's more isolating now than ever.

What the administration is doing is just trying to make it as uncomfortable as possible to get rid of as many employees as they can. They're not even trying to weed out the dead beats. Why they're taking this approach is beyond me. It just doesn't make sense. If they're looking for efficiency, this is the absolute worst way of getting it.

People can't fathom how f*cked things can get without a lot of these fed employees, and government oversight. Just a trip to the grocery store could be deadly if there wasn't safely standards in place. And even with all the people who try to keep your food safe, things fall through the cracks. Now add car safety, highway safety, drugs, air travel, etc etc.

Everyone in my wife's group has been saving personal files to their DVD drive. (They aren't allowed to plug flash drives in.) They're saving resumes, pay stubs in case they need them for unemployment, along with other things.

As my wife said, it's time to lean into the stereotype that all government employees are lazy. I told her over the past few years to stop killing yourself over work. Maybe she'll finally listen.

The reality of federal work is it typically is underpaid, understaffed, and under-budgeted. Agencies have to beg to keep dwindling budgets. Their budgets are public information.

This is where consumer confidence is being eroded. The loss and hardship caused, and the apparent lack of direction with regard to fiscal policy does not bode well for the near future. And, if we look towards the new federal budget, it's astonishing how much it adds to the federal deficit. I don't recall that being a goal, quite the opposite, actually.

[EasyMoney00]

I also forgot to add. There is a big push to have all gov employees return back to the office. My wife is approx 50 miles from her duty station. Now, when she reports in in 2 weeks, not a single other team member of hers will be at that building. She'll be the only one in her group. Some are at HQ in DC, some are in Colorado, others are in NE PA, a few in CA. They'll still be doing most communication through teams. And her situation isn't unique.

But, it's definitely more productive to drive 3 hours a day to sit in an office without a single team member. She'll get so much more done that way.

[disneysteve]

I also forgot to add. There is a big push to have all gov employees return back to the office.

This is going to cost taxpayers billions. Remote work is far far less costly. Letting as many people as possible work from home means not having to own/lease, equip, and maintain physical facilities. No office space. No furniture. No landscaping bills. No utility bills. No cleaning services. The savings would be magnitudes greater than what might be saved even by firing everyone.

[Petunia 100]

There is no point in going much further with this conversation if you truly believe our federal government runs lean.
I guess you've not heard of the current administrations D.O.G.E. and all of the ridiculous things it has quickly uncovered? Or is the stuff they found all a big lie and false?

Ever do any work for the federal government? I have, quite a bit.
My experience is in construction and I can tell you that they can't throw money away fast enough. Private sector companies could get the same construction done at half what the feds pay.
The feds spec in so much wasteful, expensive junk that adds no value to a project that it would blow your mind.

So is the best way to eliminate that waste to fire the employees of the departments requiring construction projects? Wouldn't it be better to analyze and then change government procurement policies? I for one sure think so.

IMO, the real reason that these departments are being gutted is so that they will fail. Enter private contractors to take over their duties. Lots of money to be made. How convenient.

[EasyMoney00]

This is going to cost taxpayers billions. Remote work is far far less costly. Letting as many people as possible work from home means not having to own/lease, equip, and maintain physical facilities. No office space. No furniture. No landscaping bills. No utility bills. No cleaning services. The savings would be magnitudes greater than what might be saved even by firing everyone.

I have 2 theories and you and Petunia just covered them both. Since our economy is based on people spending money, what better way to blow dough? More building leases, more fuel consumption, more wear/tear on vehicles, more buying lunch or after hour drinks/food, more hotel bookings, more shopping at local businesses, etc etc.

I think the more likely scenario is privatizing things. I'm not sure how this would play out but there would certainly be crazy amounts of money at play.

If people would do simple math, cutting feds would barely make a dent in the budget. 2 million employees, let's say average salary is $100k. That's 200 billion. Let's say you get rid of half the employees, which would cripple everything but let's get wild. So you saved $100billion. When the yearly budget is 6 trillion plus, it's a joke what they can save on employees. All at the risk of destroying everything. The risk/reward doesn't make sense. Something just doesn't smell right. My conspiracy senses are twitching.

[ua_guy]

There is no point in going much further with this conversation if you truly believe our federal government runs lean.
I guess you've not heard of the current administrations D.O.G.E. and all of the ridiculous things it has quickly uncovered? Or is the stuff they found all a big lie and false?

Ever do any work for the federal government? I have, quite a bit.
My experience is in construction and I can tell you that they can't throw money away fast enough. Private sector companies could get the same construction done at half what the feds pay.
The feds spec in so much wasteful, expensive junk that adds no value to a project that it would blow your mind.

Yes, let's continue. The federal government runs extremely lean overall. Let's take one of the biggest budget items, federal spending on healthcare. CMS is run so lean and tight you can hear it squeaking. Medicare is "the" most efficient and cost-driven healthcare payer in the world. The financial waste/abuse comes from its contractors and recipients who scam the system and seek reimbursement that isn't owed. CMS doesn't have enough resources to pursue it all, and then gets blamed for "fraud/waste/abuse". Social Security? There's a reason its database is still running on 60 year old code.

Budgets? They're public information. The public has had access and has known about where the government spends it money since the government started. And now it's time to become indignant about it? You really think this spending is "just" being uncovered now? You're kidding yourself.

Ridiculous things DOGE uncovered?

The difference between you and me is I don't care about 1% of the federal budget, that's a rounding error to me and doesn't make a difference in my life. That comprises eliminating the entirety of US Aid, which I'm certain was not mostly wasteful--exactly the opposite. Now foreign nations are stepping in to take over areas of influence we had globally. Not worth 1% in the least.