Can we talk COVID and how it affected you financially, emotionally, physically, etc?

[disneysteve]

Whoa wait what? That's a far jump to conclude that COVID caused this inflation. Please explain. I'm with James that all the fiat money printing caused this spike in inflation.

What created the need for those stimulus payments? What created the record unemployment, the supply chain disruptions, the labor shortage?

[james.hendrickson]

What created the need for those stimulus payments? What created the record unemployment, the supply chain disruptions, the labor shortage?

Exactly - covid caused the public demand. Everyone wanted covid stimulus money..

[kork13]

I still argue that some of this is also pent up inflationary pressures from the last 15 years of loosy-goosy fiscal policies and historically cheap debt while somehow containing inflation to minimal levels.

There's really a great deal of contributors to current inflation. But in the end, it all boils down to basic supply/demand dynamics, which compounded upon eachother in a perfect storm.

Excess monetary supply across the globe from many nations; insufficient supply of logistical capability during COVID restrictions around the globe, and the ongoing accordion effect of those interruptions; reduced supply of oil, wheat, and other basics from the regions of Russia & Ukraine; increased (returned) demand for all kinds of basic & finished goods as COVID restrictions have eased up & unemployment has gone back down; plus likely another dozen or more other major current & historical factors.

Politicians, journalists, social media "experts", and most of the rest of society tends to be very reductionist -- trying to pin the woes of the world onto 1 or 2 root causes.... But in all reality, there's almost always going to be a litany of contributory factors involved, some obvious, others subtle, but all impactful. Did the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand cause WWI? Of course not, he wasn't important enough for such an impact. But it was a spark that set alight myriad background complexities that were less apparent.

[disneysteve]

Politicians, journalists, social media "experts", and most of the rest of society tends to be very reductionist -- trying to pin the woes of the world onto 1 or 2 root causes.... But in all reality, there's almost always going to be a litany of contributory factors involved, some obvious, others subtle, but all impactful. Did the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand cause WWI? Of course not, he wasn't important enough for such an impact. But it was a spark that set alight myriad background complexities that were less apparent.

I think this post really nails it. COVID clearly caused a great deal of trouble to the global financial system, but it did so in part by exposing or highlighting pre-existing weaknesses in the system. Things like the woeful lack of child care in the US. Issues with underpaid workers. Eldercare. Healthcare disparities. Supply chain challenges. Archaic state unemployment systems. And many issues that are international. Again, this isn't just a US issue; it's affecting countries around the world. It's not just due to what Trump or Biden or Congress or the Fed did here in America.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

the fact that wages has not kept up with inflation for 30 years. That the minimum wage would be how high if it was just tied to inflation like SS? I think it shows that in 1950 the minimum wage would be = $8.25 inflation adjusted today. So it's less at $7.25. We obviously are at a crossroads where wages are going to need to finally increase.

[ua_guy]

the fact that wages has not kept up with inflation for 30 years. That the minimum wage would be how high if it was just tied to inflation like SS? I think it shows that in 1950 the minimum wage would be = $8.25 inflation adjusted today. So it's less at $7.25. We obviously are at a crossroads where wages are going to need to finally increase.

And if it had kept pace with productivity, minimum wage would be $21.50/hr.

https://cepr.net/this-is-what-minimum-wage-would-be-if-it-kept-pace-with-productivity/

There's been some really good wage growth in the last 2 years but unfortunately it's been outpaced by inflation.

[ua_guy]

Well, I finally got Covid. At least I’m fairly certain this is the first time, as it’s the only time I’ve felt ill since before the pandemic was a thing, and my first positive Covid test. We’re on vacation (RV) and thankfully we packed Covid tests. My husband is still testing negative, but I’ve definitely got it. We’re in an RV, so……we think it’s only a matter of time for him. But we are isolated from others so that’s good.

We didn’t have crazy plans, just a week of rest and relaxation, hikes and walks, cooking together here at the beach. I already have Paxlovid in-hand because of my fantastic doctor who returned my call on a Sunday and sent a prescription to a pharmacy close to where we are staying.

I think I’ll live, but, there goes my winning streak with this bug. This is a weird one.

[disneysteve]

Sorry to hear that ua_guy. I hope it’s mild. Sucks that it happened on vacation. Any thought on where you picked it up?

We are still seeing plenty of cases in urgent care. I was packed all day yesterday and numerous positive rapids and I’m sure there will be more when the PCRs come back.

Keep those masks on folks.

[QuarterMillionMan]

My subordinate worker who tested positive 90 days ago got a memo from HR to undergo weekly testing again due to not getting vaccinated. Some back story is I think my policy at HR is when testing positive the person has some natural immunity for 90 days so no need weekly testing for those who choose not to get vaccinated.

[Snydley]

My subordinate worker who tested positive 90 days ago got a memo from HR to undergo weekly testing again due to not getting vaccinated. Some back story is I think my policy at HR is when testing positive the person has some natural immunity for 90 days so no need weekly testing for those who choose not to get vaccinated.

Wow lots all wrong in there. Vaccination status not impacting ability to get infected much at all at this point. If you have been infected with any omicron strain (so basically infected at all in 2022) it's looking like you are ~94% protected from being infected now, with BA5 (which is what is here). My daughter had COVID in May, she is 100% maskless, has been since her 2nd negative rapid test 3 months ago.

To my knowledge I have never had it, and MA about (maybe?) 1% infectious right now, so I'm masking in stores, etc and unmasked outside and with people who had COVID this year (lots of people I'm around) and sometimes I just risk it with those with no symptoms that could be an infection. Almost everybody gets a stuffy nose these days a bit before they are infectious with COIVD as they have either had a bunch of shots, been infected, or both so that immune response kicks right in.

Also- I'm much more optimistic than most about the new booster with omicron spike mutations in it (means- specific for the new version)- I think this booster could return the 95% protection from infection we had in 2020-2021 (with first booster against delta). I'm hopeful.

[disneysteve]

My subordinate worker who tested positive 90 days ago got a memo from HR to undergo weekly testing again due to not getting vaccinated. Some back story is I think my policy at HR is when testing positive the person has some natural immunity for 90 days so no need weekly testing for those who choose not to get vaccinated.

Weekly testing really serves no purpose, as Snydley explained. The vast majority of cases I'm seeing are in vaccinated patients. Plus you could test negative on Monday and positive on Tuesday.

The Disney Wish cruise ship recently had it's maiden voyage. Immediately following that cruise was another trip for Disney Vacation Club members. Many people booked back to back cruises. Disney is still requiring vaccination and a pre-boarding test, so everyone on the maiden voyage was vaccinated and tested negative before stepping on the ship. Those continuing on to the DVC cruise had to disembark and retest. 25% of them weren't able to take the 2nd cruise because they tested positive at that point.

The vaccination and testing requirement didn't keep a whole bunch of passengers from ending up with COVID anyway.

At this point, the only thing that is truly going to protect you is proper masking, but since most places no longer have a mask requirement, we're all just taking our chances every time we step out of our houses.

[kork13]

I haven't paid close attention beyond generalities... But are we not approaching the point of normalizing the presence of COVID in society similar to the seasonal flu? (acknowledging that COVID is not showing the same seasonal nature)

Considering:
- Vaccination rates (67%)
- Prior infection rates
- The dominant presence of the omicron variant with a targeted vaccine coming out within a couple months
- An effective oral antiviral treatment (paxlovid) widely accessible (and improving)
- Dramatically lower death rates (steady around 300/wk nationally since May'22)
- Steady case rates (120k/wk since May'22)
- Vast majority of cases are asymptomatic or present very mild symptoms

All of that indicates to me that while it's important to continue to monitor, remain periodically vaccinated, and follow all of the standard hygiene practices (stay home when you're sick & wash your grubby hands!)... COVID seems to be normalizing in our society. It's been said many times, this is not something that will not suddenly go away. It's going to remain a part of our society. So are we not approaching that point? When do we move forward & start living our lives again? Frequent testing without significant symptoms does little but classify why you've got the sniffles.

I'm not trying to spark an argument, merely observing that it seems that we're at a place where it's just become a part of life and not cause for the level of extreme emphasis that is had the last 2.5 years, let alone panic & fear.

[james.hendrickson]

I

I'm not trying to spark an argument, merely observing that it seems that we're at a place where it's just become a part of life and not cause for the level of extreme emphasis that is had the last 2.5 years, let alone panic & fear.

This, I think, is the salient point. Perhaps our policymakers can start making rational decisions which maximize disease control without dire economic consequences.

[ua_guy]

Sorry to hear that ua_guy. I hope it’s mild. Sucks that it happened on vacation. Any thought on where you picked it up?

We are still seeing plenty of cases in urgent care. I was packed all day yesterday and numerous positive rapids and I’m sure there will be more when the PCRs come back.

Keep those masks on folks.

Yep...it's my own dang fault. My outside interactions are still pretty far and few between since both of us work from home, but we've been going out to eat every now and then. Tempting fate, I guess, but we figured after a couple years of NOT getting covid, and a couple months of treating ourselves to a lunch or dinner date occasionally with no ill effects (mostly eating outside on patio seating!), we were in the clear. Both of us are 3x vaccinated. I'm reminded that the rules of infectious disease are unwavering and Covid just doesn't care. Last week it was almost 100 degrees every day and we decided to go out to Mexican and eat inside where they had AC. Mess around, find out!

Day two... it really hurts to cough or sneeze--like whole chest and back stabbing pain every time it happens. I feel like death, and I have completed one "day" of Paxlovid. I am in the 5.6% of people who experience dysguesia from that medication, so everything tastes bitter. If this is "mild", then I definitely don't want to know what "severe" is....fairly certain I would have been someone who would have had a severe infection in the first round before vaccinations or antivirals.

[disneysteve]

When do we move forward & start living our lives again?

Anywhere I've seen, that's already the case. Masks are optional. Everything is open. People are traveling and dining out and going to concerts and having parties and doing all their normal stuff.

Of course, the flip side is that COVID hasn't gone anywhere. See ua_guy's post above. Went out to eat indoors once and now quite ill with COVID. If you're willing to take that chance, go for it. Nothing stopping you at this point.