Thoughts on Reopening America

[bjl584]

Reopening the economy is at the top of the headlines this week.
Thoughts on this?

Is it too soon? Can certain areas of the country be safely reopened?
Do we need to look at more than just the impact of the virus?
Public safety and health encompasses many issues beyond a virus after all.
Suicide attempts, depression, alcoholism, drug abuse, all up since the lockdown.
And the obvious impact to our economy must also be considered.

[Singuy]

The market will work itself out with the current situation. People will be scared to go out to restaurants but there will still the few who are not. Places will enforce social distancing rules as no one wants another shutdown so the incentive to flatten the curve is real for any business owner.

So even with the U.S open, it'll work out to be about 1/3 of the original "normal life" economy and will hit about 1/2 of normal life economy as things get better into the summer is my prediction. My other prediction is that this shut down will cause the next tech explosion utilizing the internet since it's more efficient. We can tell this is being priced in already as Amazon, Netflix, Teledoc, SHOP, and others hitting ATH while retail and old fashion businesses getting left behind.

[disneysteve]

Reopening the economy is at the top of the headlines this week.
Thoughts on this?

The world needs to reopen. There's really no question or debate about that.

The issue, obviously, is balancing economic needs with public health concerns. In the 1918 flu pandemic, soon after restrictions were lifted, the 2nd wave of infection struck and killed 10 times more people than the first wave. I don't see that happening so drastically this time around. There will be a 2nd wave but hopefully nothing to rival the 1918 version.

There are places in the US and elsewhere that have hardly seen COVID at all. I have a good friend in Australia who has been on lockdown for a month. The entire continent has seen just 6% of the cases that we've seen here in NJ alone. They've had 83 deaths in the whole country. We've had 6,000 just in our state, 121 just in my county. Certainly, Australia should be able to reopen much quicker and easier than New Jersey without sparking a disastrous spike in infections.

I've said before that the biggest issue we're going to face when we reopen is fear. Even in Georgia where things started to reopen last week, I've seen interviews with business owners who although they have opened are afraid of the consequences. One salon owner admitted that she was letting some of her stylists work but she herself did not feel comfortable working yet so she is not cutting anyone's hair at this point.

I'm very active in the Disney fan community and there is endless discussion about when and how Disney can reopen the parks. What will that look like? Will the parks ever be the same again? Will people ever feel comfortable crowding in shoulder to shoulder to watch parades and fireworks? Will we have to wear masks when we visit? How will they do security checks without touching all of our belongings?

Another concern is that news from DC is that they might stop the COVID briefings because they are negatively impacting Trump's polling. They want him to talk more about the economy because they think that will play better with voters. But if they stop the briefings and we don't get to hear regularly from actual experts in the field like Dr. Fauci, will the public lose sight of the fact that this is still a real and present danger? If it drops out of the headlines, will people let down their guard?

Let's see what happens in the next 2-3 weeks in the places that have started to reopen. Also, NJ is going to announce some of their reopening plans today so I'm curious to see what Gov. Murphy has to say. Cases are trending down in north Jersey but are actually climbing in south Jersey where I am so if he issues statewide rules, I'm not sure how that would work. Maybe if he does it county by county that would make more sense.

[kork13]

Alaska started a partial reopening last Friday. Haven't seen major changes yet, but some places are starting to reopen, at least to an extent. We've had only very small clusters of outbreaks since outset (statewide: ~330 cases, 9 deaths, and declining new cases). I don't expect that reopening will dramatically explode those numbers, though our governor last week did say he anticipated numbers to increase somewhat.

Honestly, even in places where they don't properly "report the economy," I'm hearing reports of two similar situations -- people reopening their business anyway (perhaps in a different format -- by order/delivery/pickup, or out of their home/car/etc.), or people are modifying their services such that they can operate regardless of the restrictions.

What that indicates to me is basically what Singuy said: the market will work itself out. Capitalism is all about finding the most efficient/effective way to make a buck, and even with a pandemic virus, capitalism is alive & well.

As for the White House briefings (if I can manage this apolitically)... I think they just need to keep POTUS out of them, and it'll be fine. Putting the experts out in front of the public builds public confidence & information.

[disneysteve]

Folks, it's okay to mention something happening in the government. Let's not make posts attacking or insulting (or praising) individual politicians or parties.

My comment about them possibly stopping the COVID briefings is factual information. What anybody thinks about any of the people involved in those briefings doesn't need to be discussed here.

I hope the briefings continue so that the data and information continues to be disseminated in some way, hopefully without involving politics if that's possible.

[Like2Plan]

I'm very active in the Disney fan community and there is endless discussion about when and how Disney can reopen the parks. What will that look like? Will the parks ever be the same again? Will people ever feel comfortable crowding in shoulder to shoulder to watch parades and fireworks? Will we have to wear masks when we visit? How will they do security checks without touching all of our belongings?

This was already one of my pet peeves--pawing through my personal stuff (AND also not changing gloves between guests-eew). I could see for an emergency--like right after 9-11 where they didn't have that set up. But, how many years has it been that they have had time to set up scanners like at an airport? I think the scanners would be a lot faster in general.

[disneysteve]

This was already one of my pet peeves--pawing through my personal stuff (AND also not changing gloves between guests-eew). I could see for an emergency--like right after 9-11 where they didn't have that set up. But, how many years has it been that they have had time to set up scanners like at an airport? I think the scanners would be a lot faster in general.

Universal has used scanners for a while. I don't know why Disney hasn't gone that route. I think they'll be forced to at this point.

[ua_guy]

Reopening the economy is at the top of the headlines this week.
Thoughts on this?

Is it too soon? Can certain areas of the country be safely reopened?
Do we need to look at more than just the impact of the virus?
Public safety and health encompasses many issues beyond a virus after all.
Suicide attempts, depression, alcoholism, drug abuse, all up since the lockdown.
And the obvious impact to our economy must also be considered.

-Without a vaccine, better testing, and accurate count/statistics reporting, it is too soon to send people immediately back to their daily high-contact routines. This is my personal take based on the information that is currently available.
-Economic people are very concerned that the show must go on. So are the people who cannot operate a business or receive their regular income during this time. These are real problems.
-There are many issues to consider - I don't think these decisions are cut/dried AT ALL.

-Suicide, depression, drug/alcohol abuse - Yes, definitely those are concerns. Also, how many people's lives have been IMPROVED by breaking routines and forcing new habits. I believe the COVID death rate is higher than all those other things on a daily basis right now. But agreed, allowing things go back to normal and for people to distance themselves from spouses, children, when needed, i.e. by spending all day at work, or having children go back to school, or resuming their normal avoidant behavior however they deal with being around people they're supposed to love, but don't, could be useful.

[disneysteve]

One issue that I haven't heard a lot about is that before you can really reopen businesses and workplaces, you need to reopen schools and day cares. Otherwise, what are parents supposed to do with their kids? A number of states have already announced that in-person school would not resume this school year so where does that leave those states when it comes to reopening things?

[Snicks]

I think things can cautiously reopen. Keep social distancing and masks, good hygiene etc. But, I do think we have to completely change our way of life forever due to this episode. Human beings want social interaction. We want sports events and concerts and crowded theaters. Not saying we can do that this summer but we can work back up to that.

Over time, the "novelty" of wearing a mask and doing these things will wear thin and people are going to go back to living their lives in their normal way. It's very hard to maintain people with high levels of fear for long.

[disneysteve]

Over time, the "novelty" of wearing a mask and doing these things will wear thin and people are going to go back to living their lives in their normal way.

I can't imagine going to Disney World during the hot weather (which is much of the year) and having to wear a mask all day. That might actually be a deal-breaker for me.

That said, I see so many people wearing masks that either don't fit, aren't made properly, or aren't being worn properly. They really serve no purpose in those cases.

[riverwed070707]

Iowa announced today that restaurants, fitness centers, churches, retail, etc (phase 1) can reopen Friday in 77 of it's 99 counties, with most other businesses (bars, parks, museums, theaters, salons) allowed to open May 15. The other 22 counties are slated to reopen phase 1 entities May 15 and presumably move to phase 2 two weeks later but that wasn't stated. Lots of mixed feelings and outrage from both sides being thrown around. I'm most perplexed about why I can go to a mall or church but I can't go to a campground or public park.

Agree with DS that it will be interesting to see how childcare is handled with having canceled school for the remainder of the academic year.

[disneysteve]

I'm most perplexed about why I can go to a mall or church but I can't go to a campground or public park.

Certainly easier to social distance at the campground or park, but the mall helps the economy (though the church doesn't). The public park also requires public workers to maintain everything so they may want to keep those closed to cut municipal costs if those folks have been furloughed.

As more states start reopening, it is interesting to see how they're all approaching it differently. The first things to reopen in Georgia, for example, are on the list as among the last things that will reopen in Texas. There is no precedent for this. Everyone is making it up as they go along. Time will tell which approach turns out to have the best results.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

well simply answer for childcare, it won't matter in states that don't reopen. Think NJ, NY, MA are going to be going back to work fast? I don't think so. I think a lot of the lower income workers too are realizing how much they are able to get on unemployment and won't go back for fear and childcare. So there will be two fold reasons to not go back.

[disneysteve]

Another challenge to reopening is public transit. People might be okay returning to work but not okay getting on a city bus or train.