End game for closed businesses

[TexasHusker]

In terms of the overall economy, I don't see this sharp recovery everyone is talking about. There are too many businesses closed that are going to be closed for far too long. There is no end-game being discussed. It's just an endless serious of lock-downs. The Fed's 14 days followed by the city's 14 days followed by the state's 30 days, etc.

I would guess that at least half of all businesses currently closed will never re-open, because there simply isn't the cash to re-open. Sure, a lot of businesses are going to get relief from the stimulus package, but take my business for example: Yes, it will help me with payroll for 10 weeks. But all of this started around March 1 and I'm not going to be open until a minimum of mid-May and probably more like July. So helping me with payroll isn't really doing anything, because we aren't an ongoing business concern any more; we are literally paying people not to work. We are just a quasi-unemployment office. It will take my own savings to successfully re-open, and most businesses simply don't have the ammo to survive.

The longer things are closed, the longer they will likely be closed, because it is ALWAYS the path of least resistance for the politicians "not" to do something. We will get to the end of April and they will say "Oh let's keep things shut down just two more weeks", then two more, then two more. Who is going to stand up and the microphone and say "you can open up your business again"? I'm not going to hold my breath.

[disneysteve]

Hopefully, the politicians, most notably the president, will listen to the experts - the doctors and scientists - before giving the all clear to reopen. The other thing is that people need to actually follow the stay at home orders, which many people simply aren't doing. Just today, someone posted a photo to our neighborhood Nextdoor group showing a bunch of kids playing street hockey at a local school. Why? They shouldn't be there and their parents shouldn't have allowed them to be there. But until they start enforcing the shutdown and issuing fines and arrests, "stay at home" is just a suggestion in many people's minds. They don't think it applies to them. The more that happens, the longer it becomes necessary to stay shut down.

I totally agree that a lot of businesses will not reopen. I already know of 2 specifically, one in NJ and one in FL, that have closed permanently. Obviously, both were teetering before this and this just sealed the deal. But that will be true of many more, including businesses that were doing okay before this but just didn't have a big reserve.

[TexasHusker]

So you think Fauci is actually going to stand up to the podium one fine day and say “all clear”?

Dig me up.

[disneysteve]

So you think Fauci is actually going to stand up to the podium one fine day and say “all clear”?

Dig me up.

There will be a point on the curve where we are well past the peak and the incidence of new cases is declining significantly. That's when reopening will start being discussed. But that is still at least a few weeks away, hence the current April 30th date POTUS spoke about, though some states have been more realistic and targeted later dates, like mid-May.

[kork13]

I just keep thinking, at what point is locking down the world hurting us more than helping us? You certainly know how this goes in medicine -- you can put a 80-y/o cancer patient on chemo, and it'll kill the cancer...but it may very well kill the patient before it kills the cancer. This is broader in scope, but how is it any different? If you shut down the entire world for weeks/months and collapse the local, domestic, and international systems of commerce in the process....how is that really the best answer?

Just so I'm understanding this clearly -- the concern that's driving all of this isn't the rate of transmission, death, or whatever.... The problem is medical capacity?

[disneysteve]

If you shut down the entire world for weeks/months and collapse the local, domestic, and international systems of commerce in the process....how is that really the best answer?

One is looking at economics; the other is looking at people's lives. Which should we value more? It's a tough question, for sure.

Just so I'm understanding this clearly -- the concern that's driving all of this isn't the rate of transmission, death, or whatever.... The problem is medical capacity?

The whole "flatten the curve" thing is about keeping the number of cases at any given time within the capacity of our healthcare system. We don't want to be in a position of having to decide who gets treated and who just gets left to die, and we are very, very close to that point right now, today, if we haven't already crossed that point in some places. I'm not closely following the situation in New York but it's either right on the brink or already over the edge of having to make those decisions.

We have a finite ability to attend to the sick. If we want to keep the number of deaths to a minimum, we need to do everything we can to not exceed the system's capacity. Right now, the best case scenario is talking about 100,000-250,000 deaths. The worst case scenario is probably 10 times that number. Is it worth keeping things shut down for a month or two if it saves 800,000 lives or more?

[disneysteve]

I'm curious what news coverage is like in other parts of the country. I live 90 miles from NYC and NJ has the 2nd highest case load in the country so we're bombarded with news and images of the field hospitals being set up at the Javitz Center and in Central Park and other locations. But is that news being broadcast everywhere or are we seeing it because it's pretty local? When you're living near the epicenter, the message might be different than what someone in Ohio or Texas or Wyoming is seeing and hearing.

[kork13]

Not to the depth of detail you're probably seeing, but it's inescapable everywhere regardless. I'm in Alaska! We've got one of the lowest infection rates in the country, and people are already getting sick of the news media force-feeding panic & hysteria down our throats. I just had our handyman guy at the house (I know, I know -- social distancing fail) to fix a pair of faucets that we discovered were leaking & damaging the cabinetry below. As he was leaving, that's effectively what he was telling me as well.

Honestly, I think the media's obsession with COVID is making all of this significantly worse. They're literally sowing fear! If nothing else, consider: fear + job loss + social isolation = mental health crises = suppressed immune system. They're focused on laying blame at the feet of the Trump administration, the military, the airlines, and individuals in our own neighborhoods who cross the 6-ft bubble. It's destructive, irresponsible, and unethical.

[TexasHusker]

I think that NYC is our Wuhan. The media is singing the praises of California for being so proactive in their social distancing efforts. https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...lifornia-data/. That's not only laughable, but it's fake news: CA started social distancing a whopping 3 to 4 days prior to NYC.


NYC is getting hit hard because of population density. There are parts of NYC with upwards of 55,000 people per square mile. That's about 500 square feet of total space per person including public and private space. Good luck social distancing there. There's no other metro area in the US that's even approaches half of that density.

[TexasHusker]

Not to the depth of detail you're probably seeing, but it's inescapable everywhere regardless. I'm in Alaska! We've got one of the lowest infection rates in the country, and people are already getting sick of the news media force-feeding panic & hysteria down our throats. I just had our handyman guy at the house (I know, I know -- social distancing fail) to fix a pair of faucets that we discovered were leaking & damaging the cabinetry below. As he was leaving, that's effectively what he was telling me as well.

Honestly, I think the media's obsession with COVID is making all of this significantly worse. They're literally sowing fear! If nothing else, consider: fear + job loss + social isolation = mental health crises = suppressed immune system. They're focused on laying blame at the feet of the Trump administration, the military, the airlines, and individuals in our own neighborhoods who cross the 6-ft bubble. It's destructive, irresponsible, and unethical.

Post of the year.

[disneysteve]

Honestly, I think the media's obsession with COVID is making all of this significantly worse.

And despite the coverage, there are still so many people, including high level government officials, who aren't taking the warnings seriously, which is part of why we're in this situation in the first place. Even today, the governor of Florida, who finally issued a statewide stay at home order yesterday, just a few hours later quietly issued a second order that supersedes local laws. He's saying individual cities can't have stricter rules than the statewide rules. He also ruled that religious services are essential so churches can stay open and have their services. Great. So dozens of people can crowd into the pews and spread disease. Awesome..

[disneysteve]

Not to the depth of detail you're probably seeing, but it's inescapable everywhere regardless. I'm in Alaska! We've got one of the lowest infection rates in the country, and people are already getting sick of the news media

Is it the local news or the national news, or both?

I can understand that if you're in an area with extremely low incidence, hearing about it constantly would be annoying. Like I said, I'm close to the epicenter so it is a massive and very real issue here. It isn't fear-mongering at all. Many thousands of people are getting sick and hundreds are dying. The case count in NJ went up by 3,500 today and the death toll went up by 182. We're at over 25,000 cases statewide with over 500 deaths.

And still, people are out there ignoring the stay at home order.

[kork13]

Honestly, I think the media's obsession with COVID is making all of this significantly worse. They're literally sowing fear! If nothing else, consider: fear + job loss + social isolation = mental health crises = suppressed immune system. They're focused on laying blame at the feet of the Trump administration, the military, the airlines, and individuals in our own neighborhoods who cross the 6-ft bubble. It's destructive, irresponsible, and unethical.

And despite the coverage, there are still so many people, including high level government officials, who aren't taking the warnings seriously, which is part of why we're in this situation in the first place. Even today, the governor of Florida, who finally issued a statewide stay at home order yesterday, just a few hours later quietly issued a second order that supersedes local laws. He's saying individual cities can't have stricter rules than the statewide rules. He also ruled that religious services are essential so churches can stay open and have their services. Great. So dozens of people can crowd into the pews and spread disease. Awesome..

Case in point.

While I don't disagree that everything could & should be handled better, accusations, spin, and the blame game helps no one. I know you're not seriously suggesting that creating & inflating hysteria is in any way helping the situation... But that seems to be the overriding opinion of the media (actually, I'm pretty sure that many of them also reasonably see this as a way to sway the election... but I digress).

[Nutria]

I just keep thinking, at what point is locking down the world hurting us more than helping us? You certainly know how this goes in medicine -- you can put a 80-y/o cancer patient on chemo, and it'll kill the cancer...but it may very well kill the patient before it kills the cancer. This is broader in scope, but how is it any different? If you shut down the entire world for weeks/months and collapse the local, domestic, and international systems of commerce in the process....how is that really the best answer?

Just so I'm understanding this clearly -- the concern that's driving all of this isn't the rate of transmission, death, or whatever.... The problem is medical capacity?

Why aren't we looking to 1918? They seemed to figure out how to treat all those people.

As importantly, the country survived to thrive even though it was the young and healthy that died, not the old and compromised. (Yes, that's hard, but I'm one of the "compromised" -- have diabetes.)

[Nutria]

just a few hours later quietly issued a second order that supersedes local laws. He's saying individual cities can't have stricter rules than the statewide rules.

Given that it's very common for smaller government units to have "more extreme" regulations than the Feds, that should be challenged and easily overturned.