April Inflation Lowest Since 2021

[bjl584]

CPI inflation April 2025: Rate hits 2.3%

[ua_guy]

Hooray!

It's a great number if one of the underlying factors isn't a slowing economy/reduced demand. As we know, inflation numbers look really good....during a depression.

[Fishindude77]

If this is a depression we are currently living in, I'm OK with it.

[ua_guy]

Nowhere near a depression...yet. 145% taxes on Chinese imports have limited data available on their economic impact since they were enacted only a short time before Trump rescinded them. However, taxes remain at 30% on chinese goods. Both the aforementioned and the current taxes will begin to show in economic data.

When retailers have margins of <2% like in clothing and electronics, they can't just absorb a 30% tax. Or a 145% tax. They stop buying. In some cases, it's cheaper to lay people off and/or close up shop. They'll never recoup the taxes paid so why buy inventory at massively inflated prices?

Christmas goods are set to ship now through the next few weeks. Retailers have to plan in advance. The buying is way, way off.

The port vacancies, companies pulling investor guidance, and hits already taken in Q2 are big indicators of what could come. The stock market is still reacting to tweets, tariffs on and off again. Brokerages still see people trading and they're making their commissions, but the underlying data is pointing to a bad place. I'm kind of thinking a wall is coming, and that's still got me out of the market. The recent data and market rallying is good for the stuff I bought during the downturn though.